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Bowl Projections: Predicting Matchups and Winners of All 5 BCS Bowls

Josh MartinNov 20, 2011

A wild Saturday of college football served as an important reminder of just how unpredictable America's passion can be and often is.

Not that losses by three of the top five teams can, will or should deter anyone from trying to predict how the BCS picture will unfold.

There's plenty left to be decided over the next two action-packed weekends, but, in the meantime, let's have a look at which teams figure to play in which of the five biggest bowls—the Rose Bowl, the Orange Bowl, the Sugar Bowl, the Fiesta Bowl and the BCS National Championship Game—and how each matchup would unfold.

Fiesta Bowl: Oklahoma State vs. Stanford

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Assuming Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma in the Bedlam Game and the BCS cools its crush on the Big 12, the Cowboys will be left out of the chase for the crystal football and, instead, relegated to the Fiesta Bowl to serve as the host.

Stanford would land in Phoenix as the best (and most attractive) at-large option in the West by virtue of the Fiesta Bowl having the first pick of the litter this year.

The game would pit two of the top quarterbacks in college football against one another, with Brandon Weeden and Andrew Luck leading their teams up and down the field in a shootout.

The difference, though, would come down to the Cardinal's punishing physicality at all levels, particularly along the offensive and defensive lines. The Pokes will try to spread the Trees out like Oregon has done the last two years, but Mike Gundy's squad lacks the sort of blinding speed that made the Ducks so effective.

Prediction: Stanford 38, Oklahoma State 28

Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Michigan

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SPOILER ALERT: I'm counting on a revolt by the voters and computers to rule out a rematch of the "Game of the Century" between Alabama and LSU in the BCS title game. The Crimson Tide would still get to play at the Louisiana Superdome, just not for the crystal football.

Instead, Nick Saban's squad, after beating Auburn in the Iron Bowl, would wind up playing in the Sugar Bowl against Michigan in a matchup between two of the most storied programs in the history of college football. The Wolverines won't have to worry about blemishing their record in the Big Ten Championship game, having already ceded that spot to Michigan State, but are likely to finish at 10-2 after beating Ohio State on Saturday.

And what bowl director, in his or her right mind, wouldn't want to pick up the Maize and Blue, along with the legions of fans that they'd attract to the game and to television sets nationwide.

The actual game, though, would likely be a romp for Bama, with the Tide's defense tripping up Denard Robinson by his shoelaces while Trent Richardson rolls his way to the end zone over...and over...and over again.

Prediction: Alabama 31, Michigan 20

Orange Bowl: Louisville vs. Houston

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As is often the case, the undefeated team from the non-BCS conference (Houston) will get shafted with a game against the worst team in the field (Louisville) from a conference (the Big East) that hasn't deserved an automatic berth since Miami and Virginia Tech bolted for the ACC.

Not that the Cougars, champions of Conference USA, will necessarily mind the big payday. Nor will fans mind tuning in to see Case Keenum do his best Andre Ware impression against Charlie Strong's suffocating defense.

If nothing else, it'll be a pleasant preview of what's to come in the Big East if/when UH takes TCU's place in the fledgling conference.

Aww, who am I kidding? Nobody outside of east Texas and Kentucky is going to watch this game, and even those folks will have rooting interests elsewhere.

Prediction: Houston 30, Louisville 17

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Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Michigan State

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The Granddaddy of Them All will once again feature the champions of the Pac-12 and the Big Ten as Oregon goes head-to-head with Michigan State.

The Ducks last appeared in the Rose Bowl Game in 2010, when they succumbed to Ohio State on New Year's Day, while the Spartans haven't been California dreamin' since 1988, when they edged USC, 20-17.

Despite losing to USC on Saturday night, Oregon still controls its own destiny in the Pac-12 North and should have little trouble dispatching Oregon State in the Civil War before running all over UCLA or Utah in the conference title game.

Sparty has already secured its ticket to Indianapolis, where it will likely face Wisconsin in a rematch of the Miracle in East Lansing back in October. Michigan State's defense will once again give Russell Wilson and company fits to earn the conference title outright.

The Spartans, though, will be hard-pressed to stop Darron Thomas, De'Anthony Thomas and LaMichael James, along with the rest of their speedy teammates, when they meet on the gridiron.

Prediction: Oregon 31, Michigan State 20

BCS National Championship Game: LSU vs. Virginia Tech

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And, last but certainly not least, college football fans will be treated to a matchup between SEC champion LSU and ACC titleholder Virginia Tech in the BCS National Champioship Game.

As I mentioned earlier, I'm hoping/wishing/counting on the voters, if not the computers, legislating against an SEC rematch between the Tigers and the Crimson Tide. That could very well happen depending how much weight the system lends to the Hokies for humbling Virginia on Saturday and then avenging their only loss of the season, at Clemson, by topping the Tigers for the ACC title.

LSU has a pair of tough tests of its own to pass—a home game against Arkansas in the Battle for the Golden Boot and a date with Georgia in the SEC Championship Game—before it can book a bus trip back to New Orleans.

Assuming the Tigers take care of business, they should have little trouble dominating Frank Beamer's boys with their suffocating defense and delivering Les Miles his second crystal football since moving to Baton Rouge from Stillwater.

Prediction: LSU 17, Virginia Tech 10

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