NFL Week 16: Who To Start, Who to Sit

Since this is championship week for many leagues, I would like to take this time to thank all of my readers for a great season.  I met so many great new e-mailers and friends this season.  I will always appreciate your support and the fact that you come to Fighting Chance Fantasy Sports for your advice and information.  I look forward to many more seasons of great football.

2008 was certainly one of uncertainty and unexpected surprises, but I believe many of you who come to this site and email me have had success this year.  If anyone would like to leave a comment about their successes/challenges/heartbreaks, I would love to hear them.  There will be Week 17 articles, but I don’t expect a ton of readers.  Good luck to all of you still in your league’s playoffs. Here’s some great picks for you:

Quarterbacks

Start:  Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons vs. Minnesota Vikings.  Ryan has been one of the better rookie quarterbacks in recent years.  He doesn’t make a ton of mistakes and he is able to make pretty much every throw that a QB needs to make in the NFL.  He had one of his worst games of the season last week, but he has only failed to throw a touchdown in consecutive weeks twice this season.  With the Vikes losing Pat Williams on D, Ryan should have time to throw. Look for him to break 250 yards and probably have two scores.

Start:  Shaun Hill, San Francisco 49ers vs. St. Louis Rams.  The Rams defense is ranked 24th in the NFL against the pass, and Shaun Hill has brought some stability to the Niners offense. In the seven games since being installed as the 49ers’ starting QB, last week versus the Dolphins was the first time he failed to throw a touchdown pass.  Hill has thrown 2 scores in four games this season, and should do the same this week against the Rams.  It might be on the road, but it is in a dome, which gives Hill more of a chance to have a good game.

Sit:  Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens vs. Dallas Cowboys.  Flacco has gone from a “game manager” to a legitimate part of the Ravens offense.  He went from throwing just one touchdown in his first five games to throwing for nine over a five game stretch.  Flacco doesn’t throw for a bunch of yards, so if he doesn’t throw TDs he isn’t worth much.   The Cowboys defense is on a roll, and should hold Flacco to one touchdown pass.

Sit:  Tarvaris Jackson, Minnesota Vikings vs. Atlanta Falcons.  Jackson had the game of his life last week, as he threw four touchdowns in the game.  However, I am far from someone who is trusting Jackson.  He has been in the NFL for a few years now, and he had the starting job taken from him for a reason.  I see a giant correction this week, and Jackson shouldn’t throw for over 200 yards or more than one score.

Running Backs

Start:  Pierre Thomas, New Orleans Saints vs. Detroit Lions.  This is my play of the week!  Thomas has been a huge part of the Saints offense as a runner, receiver, and even part of the return game.  Now, word has come down that Reggie Bush will miss the last two games of the season.  So even the 8-10 carries that Bush was getting will go to Thomas.  He is a hard runner, breaks a lot of tackles, and has desire that some guys (including Bush) lack.  As I have said many times before, the Lions defense is fantasy gold for your players.  Thomas should have a huge game.

Start:  Jamal Lewis, Cleveland Browns vs. Cincinnati Bengals.  I know, I have a hard time believing that I am suggesting Lewis too, but hear me out on this one.  Jamal Lewis has always eaten the Bengals alive.  In the first game this season, Lewis ran for 79 yards and a score.  In his 14 career games versus Cincinnati, Lewis has run for over 1,600 yards and 11 touchdowns.  I know the Browns have nothing to play for, but Lewis strikes me as a prideful guy; and cold, low scoring December games seem to be right up his alley.

Sit:  Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears.  Grant has had some good games against the tough Bears’ defense, especially earlier this season when he ran for exactly 100 yards and a score.  But the Bears are fighting for a playoff spot this week, and I see their intimidating defense keeping Grant under wraps this time.  He probably won’t get shut down completely, but I don’t see him finding the endzone, and my prediction is he will run for about 70 yards.

Sit:  Clinton Portis, Washington Redskins vs. Philadelphia Eagles.  Portis ran all over the Eagles in their first meeting when he went for 145 and a touchdown.  However, that was Week 5, and Portis has only broken 100 yards once since the calendar said November.  It has been seven weeks since Portis has scored, and the Redskins are fading fast.  The Eagles are desperate to keep their playoff hopes alive, and that should be enough for them to be inspired enough to keep a banged-up Portis in check.  I give him credit for playing through a variety of injuries, but he just isn’t a great play this week.

Wide Receivers

Start:  Antonio Bryant, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. San Diego Chargers.  How can you sit this guy?  After having an inconsistent first three months of the season, Bryant has been huge in December with over 300 yards in just two games.  The Chargers’ pass defense is among the worst in football, and should pose little threat to Bryant having another 100 yard game with a touchdown.  I don’t love his quarterback, but this seems like a no brainer to start Bryant for the rest of the year.  No other wide receiver on Tampa is getting the looks Bryant is.

Start:  T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns.  Two guys from a Browns/Bengals game in a Week 16 article?  The Browns defense is wretched and Ryan Fitzpatrick has found his safety net in Houshmandzadeh (hereafter just Housh).  Even with the loss of the franchise in Carson Palmer, Housh is still going to break 100 receptions for the second consecutive year.  He hasn’t scored in four straight games, so he is due to find the end zone against a weak Browns defense.

Sit:  Dwayne Bowe, Kansas City Chiefs vs. Miami Dolphins.  Bowe looks like he will improve all of his stats from his fine rookie season, but the way the Dolphins defense has been playing lately, I wouldn’t trust this to be a big game from Bowe.  It has been three weeks since the Dolphins have allowed a touchdown, and given the lack of potency from the Chiefs offense, there is a good chance they will make it four straight weeks.  After a great stretch from Tyler Thigpen, his numbers have started to fade as well.

Sit:  Lee Evans, Buffalo Bills vs. Denver Broncos.  Have the Bills officially packed it in?  No.  But really are they looking towards the offseason?  You better believe it.  Even when the Jets tried to give them a win they gave it back, so don’t expect much from Buffalo in the final two weeks.  If Trent Edwards is in the game you can expect rust, if J.P. Losman is in the game you can just expect him to suck as usual.  Evans hasn’t scored since the middle of OCTOBER, and I don’t think you can expect him to break that this week.

Tight End

Start:  Tony Scheffler, Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills.  He was shut out against the Panthers last week, but the previous two weeks he had 12 catches.  Going back to the Evans section of this article, I feel the Bills just aren’t putting forth 100%. I think that Jay Cutler will play well, and find his tight end about a half dozen times, one of them for a score.

Sit:  Chris Cooley, Washington Redskins vs. Philadelphia Eagles.  The bad news for Cooley owners?  He has one touchdown all season long.  The good news?  It was scored in the first game that they played against the Eagles.  Cooley will set career highs in yards and catches, but that one touchdown is killing his owners.  Jason Campbell is lost, and I don’t see him having any kind of a good game against a swarming Philly defense.  Cooley might have five catches, he might break 60 yards, but he won’t score.

As always, your comments and questions (adds/drops, lineup advice, etc.) are welcome at [e-mail].  I guarantee a response within 18 hours.