Pac-10 Basketball in for Slim Postseason

The Pac-10 will only send four teams to a postseason in 2009. There, I said it. Just seeing the out-of-conference play, there is no way the NCAA Selection Committee could send more than four to any tournament.

Well, I will knock out which teams will get in: UCLA (still too talented), USC (talentry), Arizona State (should have been in last year), and Arizona (the Gonzaga win will push them in). But here is why the others might as well plan for next year.

Stanford is off to a great start (6-0), but they have not played a team of note to this point. I do not believe under a new head coach and without the Lopez twins that the Cardinal can keep up this play during Pac-10 play. Johnny Dawkins has done a great job to this point, but they will not have enough experience playing tough games before they start conference play (and they start with Arizona and Arizona State).

Oregon State, well, they were winless in conference play last year, and it will take some time before they are relevant again.

The Ducks of Eugene are not going to fare much better. They have lost four of the last five and have lost two straight games at home to two NCAA Tournament teams from last season (San Diego and Saint Mary's). Oregon's lack of strength underneath the basket will continue to give them problems all season. Tajuan Porter is very good, but if you get a hand in his face, it changes his shot dramatically.

Cal has gotten off to a good start, and under Mike Montgomery, they may have better fortunes in Pac-10 play. Like with Oregon, Cal's biggest issue is the lack of power under the basket. Come tournament time, the presence under the basket will be huge.

One of the biggest blows to Washington was their loss to Portland to open the season. Portland had finished sixth in the West Coast Conference last season and does not look to finish much higher this season. Washington does have the best big man in the conference in Jonathan Brockman, and only the progression of freshman Isaiah Thomas can get the Huskies into the postseason.

This leaves Washington State, who have faced the most challenges in their preseason play. All three losses the Cougars have posted this year are against teams who were in the NCAA Tournament last year. Those three losses are by 14 (Pittsburgh), six (Baylor at home), and 22 (Gonzaga at home). This could become problematic when they see UCLA, USC, and other Tournament teams.

The NBA Draft really depleted the Pac-10, and the improvement of the Big East and the ACC are all going to contribute to the Pac-10's low numbers in the NCAA Tournament.