UFC 139 Card: Shogun Rua vs. Dan Henderson Breakdown and Prediction

The time is upon us.

Fans who’ve been waiting since the dying days of Pride to see Shogun Rua and Dan Henderson square off will finally get their wish at UFC 139. With such an epic matchup headlining, one can’t help but take a look at the two men and try to identify who has what edges, and where those edges might be.

Let’s take a look.

Striking

This is an interesting one, because stylistically the two guys are about as different as you could get.

Rua relies on his smooth, technical muay Thai to win exchanges, tempered with the occasional wild kamikaze attack or flurry of punches. He’s rarely outclassed on his feet, and has a cast iron chin.

Henderson, on the other hand, simply stalks his opponent and waits to land one big right hand. That might be a risky approach for many, but for Henderson it’s proven remarkably successful. He’s also got one of the best chins in the game, and while he lacks the technical prowess of his opponent, there’s no denying his power.

It comes down to whether you prefer the ability to win with one punch, or the ability to be better all-around. While I personally prefer the latter, it’s easier to envision Henderson landing that vaunted right hand and finishing Rua than it is to envision Shogun overwhelming Henderson with a barrage.

Hendo gets the nod here, but it’s as close as you could get.

Grappling

Another tight comparison, it pits the relatively unheralded jiu-jitsu of Shogun Rua against the unbelievable-but-underused wrestling of Dan Henderson. Neither man is a true grappler at heart, despite the fact they both have a pretty full toolbox on the mat.

Rua favors leg locks when on the ground, however he’ll have trouble with Henderson’s concrete base should they end up on the ground. On the flip side, Henderson could likely put the fight there at his will given his wrestling chops and Shogun’s poor takedown defense, but he’ll likely use it to dictate the pace of the fight instead.

If Henderson wants this to be a grinding ground battle or a draining fight against the cage, he’ll use his wrestling to do so. His jiu-jitsu is almost totally defensive, so he’ll be hard for Shogun to catch and Shogun probably won’t be looking anyway.

Based on the level of his wrestling, and the fact that he has the experience to know how to use it properly in this fight, the edge here goes to Henderson again.

Stamina

Perhaps the Achilles' heel of the great Mauricio Rua is his hit-or-miss conditioning, which often betrays him in big fights and leaves fans wishing he’d come with more in the tank. Across the cage he’ll see a man who isn’t exactly notorious for great cardio either though, and also a man who is into his forties.

It’s tough to call, on account of just how bad Shogun looks when he’s not in shape. Jon Jones had a field day, and the geriatric edition of Mark Coleman gave him fits. However the times he comes in shape, he goes through guys so quickly that conditioning isn’t a concern anyway.

Henderson hasn’t looked bad at 205, and his cardio concerns of the past have come out of bad cuts to middleweight, however I still have trouble with the idea of a man his age having gas for days when I’ve seen him labouring so recently.

I know I’m going to catch some flak for this, but I’ll give stamina to Shogun on account of him being healthy, fighting on a regular schedule for the first time since 2009, and being the younger man by more than a decade…but I reserve the right to be unsurprised if he gases in the second round.

Intangibles

Both men have plenty to consider outside of the cage for this one, with lots influencing their mentalities and the way they’ll approach the fight.

For Rua, a chance to get his belt back is quite possibly up for grabs here. Beating Hendo would have him no more than a fight away from a rematch with Jones, something he pines for on account of gassing out and being hurt in their first meeting (so the rumours go).

Henderson, on the other hand, is still technically the Strikeforce light heavyweight champion, and is defending that belt for the first time tonight. He’s also returning from UFC hiatus, fighting in the octagon for the first time since 2009, and will want to show people that he’s still relevant in the 205 lbs pecking order.

Both men believe they’re no less than a fight away with Jon Jones should they win tonight, and both men also have the added thrust of some classic Pride pride here, as Shogun was likely next up for Henderson in Japan if the promotion never folded.

It’s probably to close to pick a man with an edge in intangibles here, but if a gun were to my head and I had to choose I’d say Henderson. Strictly speaking, he’s defending his Strikeforce title, knows he doesn’t have much time left, and has openly talked about getting Jones to unify the title. It’s all implied with Shogun, and while I don’t doubt his hunger, I’ve certainly heard more about Henderson’s.

He takes it narrowly.

The Verdict

Looking at the fight and the breakdown in the prior slides, Henderson seems like the wise pick. I’m less convinced of that than said breakdown probably has you believing though, as these two are so closely matched and there are so many factors at play.

Neither man benefits from a long fight, and either man can finish it in the blink of an eye. Both have so much to fight for, and have been eyeing each other through the proverbial fence for so long that you know they’re dying to get this started.

I won’t go against the breakdown, taking Henderson by KO when he connects with that big right during a Shogun flurry in the third round. But make no mistake, this is as close a fight as there is to call.