Fantasy Football: Week 16 Preview, Part Two

So last night was interesting.  

First, the pat on the back for calling Manning to throw for three touchdowns. I didn't see the 350 yard game, but he certainly broke my 290 expectation. Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark both looked good. Even Dominic Rhodes had a decent game thanks to his touchdown and Maurice Jones-Drew got a lot of work. 

I should have gone with my gut on Dennis Northcut, as he did come up large in several situations, and Marcedes Lewis didn't hurt you at the tight end spot either.  

I also trusted that Anthony Gonzalez was going to produce, but that didn't exactly work out. This offseason will be interesting.

It's possible the Colts part ways with Marvin Harrison, but we haven't seen enough from Gonzalez to make him a true No. 2 receiver. He's inconsistent, and Manning seems much more enamored with his tight ends than he does with the former Ohio State star. 

The Colts have clinched a playoff berth, and no worse than a five seed. Depending on how the remaining games play out this weekend, those of you with Week 17 championships should likely look elsewhere for offense. The Colts may not have much to play for. 

Let's go over the late games. 

New York Jets at Seattle 

Who to Start: Deion Branch, John Carlson, Seneca Wallace, Leon Washington, Dustin Keller 

Who to Sit: Brett Favre, Jets Receivers 

What to Expect: I hate basing things on scouting reports, because coach Eric Mangini doesn't seem to read them. 

Mangini should win this game by running the football. They should rush 30-35 times this game while throwing around 20. Leon Washington and Thomas Jones should combine for three touchdowns and around 200 yards on the ground.  

That SHOULD be the case. It's why I say you start those guys. In fact, Keller, in my opinion, should be the leading receiver and Washington likely finishes second. It's that kind of game.  

Of course, the problem with this is the fact that Mangini only enforces scouting reports for the first half of games. After that, he ignores them. It's why the Jets have blown games to Denver, Oakland, and other teams where the idea should strictly have been to pound away on the ground. That was even the case against Buffalo last weekend. 

That in mind, I'm saying to bench Favre and his wideouts if you have better options. I'm playing the sanity card, and not the poor-coaching card here. 

The Seahawks will look to attack the Jets through the air. New York has the 29th ranked pass defense, and a quarterback that seems to be coming around. Wallace is a sleeper play this week that could pay huge dividends for owners that don't like their primary matchups.

It's an East Coast team coming to the West Coast, and that doesn't really bode well. 

Keep Deion Branch and John Carlson active, as both should enjoy solid days. For owners that just lost Anquan Boldin (likely to miss Sunday against New England), Branch represents an adequate replacement. Look for 80 yards and a score.

Carlson has been on a tear, and there is no reason to think he won't be a top-10 tight end this week. 

Avoid the running game, as the Jets still put up a stellar front and hold opponents under 90 yards per game. Maurice Morris is not going to do the job this week. 

Sleeper Pickup: Branch. As an injury replacement, he could be this year's Ron Dayne.

Houston at Oakland 

Who to Start: Kevin Walter, Steve Slaton, Matt Schaub, Darren McFadden, Johnnie Lee Higgins

Who to Sit: Justin Fargas
 
What to Expect: Expect to continue to see the Texans rolling on offense. 

Kevin Walter has been on every other week, and this week, he should be on. Nnamdi Asomugha should be all over Andre Johnson, and that will open things up for Walter and Owen Daniels. I know, Matt Berry pointed this out as well, that doesn't make it any less true. 

I like almost any quarterback against the Raiders, and this is no exception. Schaub will have a fine day. Slaton will put up decent numbers on the ground, giving no pause for concern in starting the rookie in a title game. 

In Oakland, I expect them to see what McFadden can do. He's getting decent touches out of the backfield, mainly through the air. In PPR formats, he's a better play than not, but I would see him as the primary back in this one with Fargas taking a seat. McFadden should be seen more as a flex option, but a steady one. 

I don't trust JaMarcus Russell, or most of his receivers. We are seeing, though, Johnnie Lee Higgins turn into a decent deep threat, and he's come up with several big plays the last few weeks. Owners in need of an extra receiver this week should look to add Higgins, and expect 85 yards, even if it is only on two catches. 

Zach Miller remains the best play of any Oakland pass catcher. As a tight end option, he's going to be in the top-12 this week.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Higgins. He's hit or miss, but he'll hit on one big one. 

Buffalo at Denver 

Who to Start: Eddie Royal, Tony Scheffler
 
Who to Sit: Trent Edwards, Denver Running Backs
 
What to Expect: Expect to see a Buffalo coach fighting for his job, and the cold play a factor in all aspects of the game. 

How do you beat Denver? You run the football and control the flow of the game. That's what Buffalo will do, and it will be with a heavy dose of Marshawn Lynch. Lynch will be the primary/only factor in Buffalo's offense. For them to stay in this game, Lynch will need to be over the 100-yard mark, and I expect him to do that. 

Don't look to Trent Edwards as a quarterback. He's just back from injury, and, as just said, you beat Denver on the ground. I'm not going to even start Lee Evans this week, because timing is going to be an issue here. If you need to, temper expectations, because there are better options available in many places this week. 

I also think that Denver rebounds from last week and we see solid performances from Jay Cutler, Brandon Marshall, and Royal. The Buffalo secondary isn't good, and the Broncos are used to how the ball plays in the cold.

Marshall won't break your heart this week. That might be all I can say about him, but I think that's a good thing. 

Royal and Scheffler represent solid PPR league options, and should both rebound from last week. Royal was a pleasant surprise early on, and I think this week he pulls it all together again. 

Stay away from the Denver run game. Do you want to pin your title hopes on the whims of Mike Shanahan and his fantasy-football-hating ways? Didn't think so.
 
Sleeper Pickup: None. Don't play around with this one. 

Philadelphia at Washington 

Who to Start: DeSean Jackson, Kevin Curtis
 
Who to Sit: Jason Campbell, Santana Moss
 
What to Expect: The Eagles need this game in every way possible, and desperation is a good thing here. 

McNabb has thrown for more touchdowns since being benched than any quarterback in football. Going against a struggling Redskins team, I think you take those odds and run with it.

I'm seeing another three touchdown day from McNabb, and that comes with 260 yards. His Monday night performance was something else, and this will serve as encore. 

DeSean Jackson and Kevin Curtis are the only receivers I trust in the passing game regularly. Jackson seems to be his go-to guy, and Curtis never drops a pass. Keep both active. L.J. Smith doesn't quite do it for me this week, mainly because there are better matchups. If you need him, he's a mediocre play. 

You obviously have Brian Westbrook in your lineup, so let's just move on. 

The Eagles secondary has had several strong performances recently, and that doesn't suit a struggling quarterback well. The blitz packages have created sack situations, so don't look for Campbell to set the world on fire. With Asante Samuel in coverage, Santana Moss becomes less of a threat as well. 

Secondary receivers are the way to go, but with a team that hasn't put up many points recently, it's not a gamble to take in the playoffs. Avoid Antwaan Randle El, and I'd even say to bench Chris Cooley in favor of other tight ends discussed. 

Even looking at the run game, the Eagles have been tough up front. I'm not sold on Portis as a No. 1 back this week and would advise that you treat more as a No. 2 or 3. Sixty yards with a potential score is what I'll put out as a forecast.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Curtis. He's consistent, and is making some big plays. 

Atlanta at Minnesota 

Who to Start: Roddy White, Matt Ryan, Chester Taylor, Visanthe Shiancoe
 
Who to Sit: Jerious Norwood, Sidney Rice, Tarvaris Jackson
 
What to Expect: The Vikings can't stop the pass. The Falcons can't stop the run. We're playing to each team's strength here. 

Matt Ryan is going to put up NUMBERS against this Vikings defense. It's a lot to say that we should start borderline guys in playoff games, but Ryan is among those that have the matchup to back it up. He puts up when the defense gives it up.

Look for him to hit 250 and two touchdown passes, minimum, and he won't make a mistake. Not against this team. 

Having Roddy White and Michael Jenkins on either side is paying dividends. The play-action pass is set up well because of how Michael Turner is running the football. Start all three this week, but don't reach for Jerious Norwood. 

While the Vikings are without one of the big guys up front, they still can stop the run, and that won't leave room for secondary runners here. 

For Minnesota, look for them to control the clock. We aren't going to see another four-touchdown performance from Jackson this week. The Vikings will need to control the clock, and that will make for a heavy dose of Peterson and Taylor.

Peterson's ankle injury may limit his effectiveness, so I'm going to recommend Taylor as a flex option. 

I'd still start Berrian, as he's getting play in the return game as well as in the passing game, but avoid Sidney Rice and others. Shiancoe makes a fine tight end option, as Jackson will still be looking for outlets, and the two have worked well in nearly every game this season. Keep him active.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Ryan. I like the upside here. 

Carolina at New York Giants

Who to Start: Jonathan Stewart, DeAngelo Williams, Derrick Ward, Kevin Boss
 
Who to Sit: Brandon Jacobs, Jake Delhomme, Muhsin Muhammad, Domenick Hixon
 
What to Expect: Expect this to be a physical fight. 

Eli Manning hasn't thrown more than one touchdown pass at home in his last five, and that doesn't exactly bode well for his receivers. The Panthers aren't as strong in the secondary, but they will be able to stop Hixon from getting deep on them. 

Manning will need to use underneath receivers in order to move the ball, and it's the main reason I like Boss this week. He'll get a red-zone touchdown this week. Toomer should grab a few catches, but I don't think he'll get the score in this one, making him a less-than-solid play. 

I'm not convinced that Brandon Jacobs gets the start or the bulk of the carries. I'd use Ward in this one, as he still gets the catches out of the backfield and is a more effective runner than Bradshaw overall. Ward is a fine play in all formats. 

As far as Carolina goes, this game begins and ends with Stewart and Williams. The Giants are strong against the pass, ranking in the top-10, and that means more work for the two backs. You start them and there should be no concerns. 

I'd play Steve Smith, because big-time receivers still put up numbers against all teams. Look at Calvin Johnson. Stay away from Muhammad and other less-potent threats. Those are the guys that will have stats fall off.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Boss. He gets the red-zone touchdown, and is another solid tight end play. 

Green Bay at Chicago 

Who to Start: Devin Hester, Rashied Davis, Kyle Orton, Jordy Nelson, Aaron Rodgers
 
Who to Sit: Ryan Grant, Donald Lee
 
What to Expect: The Bears will look to run the ball early and often against one of the worst run defenses in football. The Packers will need to attack the Bears secondary through the air. 

Matt Forte is going to be huge in this game. Forte is the leading rusher and receiver for the Bears, so expect him to play a role in both aspects of the game. He jumps up as one of the better plays this week. 

Kyle Orton and company will be able to better exploit the Green Bay defense with Atari Bigby inactive for this game. I think that makes Hester and Davis both solid plays. You should already be starting Greg Olsen at tight end, but these two wideouts could make the difference for some teams this week.

If you're looking to choose, I like Hester slightly more than Davis. 

The Packers are not going to be able to run the football on the Bears, and I would keep Ryan Grant on my bench if I had any other options available. The Bears just don't give up rushing touchdowns, so Grant's use will be limited. 

Aaron Rodgers, on the other hand, will be able to throw on the Bears. Greg Jennings, Donald Driver, and Jordy Nelson all are legit plays. Nelson comes into action in deeper leagues only, but Driver and Jennings are worthy starts in any format.

I'm avoiding Donald Lee because the one area the Bears excel is in their linebackers. They have the people to cover tight ends.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Hester. He's the better play of the Chicago receivers and should make one or two big plays. 

Enjoy the games!