Fantasy Football: Week 16 Preview, Part One

Ah, a prelude to a championship. I'm in a handful of leagues and have made the finals in two of them while being eliminated in the semifinals in several others.

We all have people to blame for that, and if you want to add yours to the comments, that would be appreciated. Personally, I need to thank Brandon Marshall and Anquan Boldin for the majority, but Reggie Bush is up there as well. 

I ain't mad at ya, fellas, we just had a misunderstanding. Maybe next year things will work out. 

For many of you, this is what it all comes down to. Let's break down the early games. 

Indianapolis at Jacksonville 

Who to Start: Anthony Gonzalez, Dominic Rhodes, Marcedes Lewis 

Who to Sit: Marvin Harrison, David Garrard, Jaguars receivers 

What to Expect: First thing first, Harrison has not gone with the team to Jacksonville for the game, according to ESPN. That being the case, he goes on the sit list. 

The rest of the Colts passing attack receives an immediate upgrade as far as fantasy stats go, and they already were all decent plays. Peyton Manning gets a good matchup in a key week for owners, and he should put up 290 and three touchdowns against the Jaguars defense.  

Gonzalez is one of my favorite plays this week. Yes, Reggie Wayne will be the primary, but Gonzalez works well as the No. 2 guy, much better than as the No. 3. Use him as a flex option in most formats. You're already starting Dallas Clark and Wayne, and they will not disappoint as far as numbers. 

Joseph Addai is going to be a game-time decision. This isn't something I would want to play with this late in the season, so reserve him if you can. Rhodes should see enough time to warrant him as an RB2 in some deeper leagues, and as a flex option in all formats. If you have both, I like Rhodes better than Gonzalez unless it's PPR. 

The Jaguars are going to be basically relying on one guy, Maurice Jones-Drew. He's the best play of anyone on Jacksonville. He's a must-start, and I feel he could still come away with two touchdowns in this one. That's especially the case if Bob Sanders is out of the lineup. 

I wouldn't play Garrard, but he has been able to find Lewis and Dennis Northcut for decent yardage and a couple scores. Lewis makes a fine tight end play, but I think you're reaching for any aspect of the passing game this week.

The Colts are 25th against the run, but rank number seven against the pass. They've given up just five passing touchdowns all year. 

Sleeper Pickup: Lewis. If anyone is going to get a score from Garrard other than Jones-Drew, it will be Lewis. 

Baltimore at Dallas 

Who to Start: Le'Ron McClain, Tashard Choice, Derrick Mason
 
Who to Sit: Joe Flacco, Roy Williams, Patrick Crayton
 
What to Expect: It's the last game in Texas Stadium, and that emotion can't be understated in this game. 

I still like the Baltimore defense, and there are very few matchups you want to sit them for. They hawk the ball, and are always in position for a defensive touchdown. Even when they play poorly, that can turn a game. I keep them active here, though Baltimore has had several occasions where they've given up more than 25 points on the road. 

It's that reason that has me starting Choice and Marion Barber, as well as the normal players in the passing game. I'm not reaching for Williams or Crayton, but Jason Witten and Terrell Owens are going to put up fine numbers, and you shouldn't change your approach here. 

As far as Choice, I liked what I saw the last two weeks, so I'm going to stick with him in this one. He's a deeper play this week because of the defense, but don't be scared off because of the matchup in this case. 

For the Ravens, I'm recommending you to bench Flacco if you have better options. I do think he has the potential to put up some solid numbers, but the Cowboys are one of the best in the league at generating sacks, meaning he likely loses a tight end weapon, since they'll need the extra blocker. 

Derrick Mason and Mark Clayton should be able to put up steady numbers. Mason likely comes in around 85 yards with a score, and Clayton could beat the coverage deep for a score and a big play. 

The Cowboys have had trouble with bigger backs in the Brandon Jacobs mold, so McClain fits the bill here. He should have some success running against this front, and is the only Baltimore running back to play this week.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Mark Clayton. It's a feeling that he comes up with a big play and a score here. 

Cincinnati at Cleveland 

Who to Start: Cedric Benson, Chad Johnson, Braylon Edwards
 
Who to Sit: Ken Dorsey, Ryan Fitzpatrick
 
What to Expect: Cleveland is 28th against the run, and Cedric Benson seems to be getting better. 

Benson struggled against teams that are tough against the run, putting up just 94 combined rushing yards in three games against the Eagles, Steelers, and Ravens. When the opponents get easier, Benson runs better.

He went for over 100 against Jacksonville, 73 against Washington, and 60 against Indianapolis. I like his chances to go for 75 and a score here. 

Chad Johnson isn't a name I normally put up here, but this is a week he could be in play. With T.J. Houshmandzadeh drawing Corey Webster for most of the game, Johnson should be opened up to come up with a couple plays. 

Stay away from Ryan Fitzpatrick. Even Donovan McNabb was picked a couple times by this defense, and Cleveland has a knack for coming up with good plays. I'm not taking a chance with a young quarterback in the semi-finals or finals, regardless of the situation. Not one that hasn't proven anything, for certain. 

I think the Monday Night Football crew summed up Cleveland appropriately, that they are just a bad football team. The only player I can see recommending is Braylon Edwards.

Edwards shines in prime time, but this should be a good matchup. I'm only hesitant because of his recent remarks about Cleveland fans. Doesn't bode well. He is going to hear it, big time.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Benson. He has the matchup here to put up good numbers. 

New Orleans at Detroit 

Who to Start: All Saints Regulars, Kevin Smith, Dan Orlovsky
 
Who to Sit: All other Lions not named Calvin Johnson
 
What to Expect: I'm expecting offense, and that this could be the best chance that the Lions have at getting a win. Going winless would just be sad. 

The Lions are simply a bad team, so you'll want to start any Saints you normally would. That list includes Drew Brees, Marques Colston, Jeremey Shockey, Pierre Thomas, and Lance Moore. You could even reach for Devery Henderson and have some limited success in deeper formats. 

With Reggie Bush out, Thomas and Moore become even better options than they have been in the last few weeks. Enjoy the ride in this one. 

The Lions, though, won't be any slouches on offense. Orlovsky is a better quarterback than you might think. He has a big arm, good size, and can actually move the pocket a bit.

He's not going to be confused with Tom Brady (because he has two good ACL's and fewer rings), but he could put up a couple touchdown passes against a weak secondary. 

Who will be on the receiving end? There's only one right answer to this, and that's Calvin Johnson. He's the only receiver you start. Orlovsky may run one himself, but will definitely throw for two. 

Kevin Smith is a good play as well, as the Saints defense is what is keeping them out of any playoff hunt. When you can't defend the pass or the run, that's a recipe for disaster. Smith should be an RB3 play, and put up 85 yards with a score.  

I see this as an offensive shootout, something in the 37-31 range. Bet the over.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Orlovsky. It's a feeling, but he has the best upside opportunity of any fringe starting quarterback. If you need to start two, he's a good play. 

Pittsburgh at Tennessee 

Who to Start: Mewelde Moore.
 
Who to Sit: Ben Roethlisberger, Kerry Collins, Santonio Holmes
 
What to Expect: The fact is, this is another one of those defensive games. 

Chris Johnson and LenDale White haven't proven they can run against the better defenses in football. They've been held down against the Jets and the Bears, specifically.

I'm not feeling overly confident if I have these two on my team. I'm certainly benching White, as the Steelers have a strong enough goal line defense to keep him from those short touchdowns. 

Johnson's case is slightly different. The issue is, you likely don't have a better option. Temper expectations to 60 yards without a score. That's the high end of what I can see for either back. 

I'm keeping Collins and the Tennessee passing game on the bench. Justin Gage, Bo Scaife, and Brandon Jones just don't seem to have the type of numbers against tough defenses that would make you start them in the playoffs. Look elsewhere. 

As far as the Steelers go, the only plays I'd want to make would involve Hines Ward and Moore. I'm slightly reaching for Moore, but I feel the absence of Albert Haynesworth makes him a good play. I'm hesitant on Willie Parker, based on all the injuries, but feel Moore could benefit in this case. 

Ward is especially valuable in PPR leagues, as he always seems to find a way to six or seven catches to go with 80 yards.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Moore. Injuries do it here. As a flex option, he's a good fit. 

Miami at Kansas City 

Who to Start: Davone Bess, Ricky Williams, Chad Pennington, Anthony Fasano, Tyler Thigpen, Mark Bradley
 
Who to Sit: Larry Johnson
 
What to Expect: This game is going to be cold, and the question comes as to who will adapt to the weather more effectively. 

I like the offense that is being run out in Kansas City right now, but I'm not convinced that they're a better team than Miami. The Dolphins have survived on the skin of their teeth, yet know they need this one as much as any other game this season, if not more. 

Chad Pennington doesn't make mistakes. In two-quarterback formats, he's a start. He's simply more steady than anything else; he's not a regular play, but should be good for around 215 yards and two touchdowns. He's found his tight ends a fair amount in the last few weeks, thus making Anthony Fasano a good play. 

Davone Bess is a start in all PPR formats, as he'll end the day with eight catches and 70 yards. I'll look for him to grab a score as well. Ginn is a big play threat, and tends to rack up yards in the return game as well. If you get points there, Ginn is a decent deep-league start. 

Miami will have to do some damage on the ground for this to end up in their favor. They can't run the ball only ten to 12 times and win here. They will need Williams and Brown to pound away and keep control of the ball.

If the Dolphins run the ball 20-25 times, they win this game. I think coach Tony Sparano knows that, and that makes the two backs good plays. 

The Dolphins defense has to get off the field more effectively than they did against the 49ers at home last week. They give up short possession passes on third down, making Mark Bradley a decent sleeper play if you need the start. 

Miami defends tight ends well, but you aren't sitting Tony Gonzalez. Starting Thigpen does hang on the same lines as starting Pennington. You aren't going to get amazing numbers, but two-quarterback formats should like this matchup. In standard leagues, there are better ways to go. 

I'm not looking at the Kansas City running game here, there are just too many variables and the spread offense has opened pieces up for receivers more than it has Larry Johnson and Jamaal Charles.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Williams. Sleeper play is the best definition. He should get 10-13 carries and put up 45 yards with a score either through the air or on the ground. In either case, he finds the end zone. 

San Francisco at St. Louis 

Who to Start: DeShaun Foster, Isaac Bruce, Shaun Hill, Vernon Davis, Donnie Avery
 
Who to Sit: Marc Bulger
 
What to Expect: Expect to see the stoppable force against the movable object. 

Frank Gore is still a question mark for the 49ers, and that being the case, I'm recommending DeShaun Foster. Foster had 100 total yards against the Dolphins last week, and he should be able to at least equal that on the turf against St. Louis. He's proven he hasn't lost a step, and would be valuable in leagues where you need to replace Gore. 

Shaun Hill has performed admirably well, and I'd start him in any format where I didn't like my matchups. Looking down the line, that means guys like Kerry Collins and Ben Roethlisberger would be benched for someone like Hill this week. He should throw for two touchdowns with 260 yards. 

I'm keeping Isaac Bruce and Vernon Davis active. Davis is proving more valuable each week, and Bruce is working hard to get open and seeing it pay off. Old guy still has a bit left in the tank here. 

As far as the Rams go, Steven Jackson should be in line for a decent day, as the 49ers struggled this past week once the Dolphins decided to run. They didn't have a ton of success against the Jets, either. Keep him active. 

I wouldn't start Bulger this week, but would use Torry Holt or Donnie Avery. Avery got more targets this past week and I don't think that will be different here. The 49ers have a weak secondary once you get outside of Nate Clements, so look for the Rams to take advantage using Avery.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Foster. Especially if Gore can't go, he's the guy to own. 

Arizona at New England 

Who to Start: Steve Breaston, Sammy Morris, Kevin Faulk, Matt Cassel
 
Who to Sit: Tim Hightower
 
What to Expect: Expect some bad weather up in Foxboro. 

I live literally five miles from the stadium, and the weather we're hearing is calling for about a foot of snow tomorrow and more coming on Sunday. If that's the case, the weather will take all bets off of this one. It hurts the Cardinals more than the Patriots. 

The Cardinals have struggled on the road and have no run game. I'm not starting Tim Hightower regardless of the situation, even if the weather will, in theory, force more of a run-heavy situation. He hasn't proved effective enough. 

You have to start Fitzgerald and Boldin, but I'm leaning towards benching Warner due to the potential conditions. He's struggled the last month or so, and that doesn't bode well here. Yes, the Patriots are weak in the secondary, but his stats and road performance have to make you question his ability to perform here. 

Steve Breaston should be a solid play, as the secondary depth in New England isn't there to stop him. 

Based on what I know now, I'm starting Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk. This is going to be won on the ground, and the Patriots can run against the Arizona front. Morris is the better play, but I wouldn't hesitate to use Faulk at all. 

Wes Welker and Randy Moss should be fine starts, and Cassel will be in my lineup if the weather holds on Sunday. Should it turn nasty, I'd keep him reserved, and upgrade the New England running game even higher than we currently have it.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Breaston. The depth for New England means he should have a solid day. 

San Diego at Tampa 

Who to Start: Cadillac Williams, Warrick Dunn, Antonio Bryant
 
Who to Sit: Vincent Jackson, Philip Rivers
 
What to Expect: I'm not expecting much out of San Diego. 

They haven't performed against any decent defense this season, and the Tampa defense is on fire. Rivers could be in for a long day, and the coverage they play will limit how effective Jackson is in the passing game. If you have better options in this one, I'd explore them. 

Starting LDT should be fine in this case, as he'll likely be required to see plenty of touches with how bad the passing game could be.  

I'm not trying to dumb this one down, but nothing we see should lead you to the conclusion that Jackson or Chris Chambers should be used here. Not with the way the Bucs play at home, and not with the way the Chargers play on the road. 

For Tampa, I feel they will be out for blood because they need this one for the playoffs. You beat the Chargers on the ground. Look for a lot of Dunn and Williams, with Williams having more touchdown upside. I'll start them both as RB3's or flex options in any league. 

I wouldn't start Brian Griese or Jeff Garcia in this matchup, more because we don't really have a good sense as to who will start. It also goes to the reliance that Tampa will have on the running game in this one. Antonio Bryant is the only true start in the passing game, and he should be used without a concern.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Williams. Great upside in this matchup for at least one touchdown. The Bucs will spend the day running the football. 

Back tomorrow with the late games!