NFL Week 11 Picks: Buffalo Bills and Jags Are Top Road Dogs to Back

Home-field advantage in the NFL ain’t what it used to be.

Aside from a handful of stadiums, there really isn’t a huge difference between playing at home and on the road. Half of the league is at least .500 away from home, but Vegas isn’t catching up.

Here are two road dogs that will easily cover in Week 11:

(Spreads courtesy of Covers.com)

Buffalo Bills +1 @ Miami Dolphins

The 2-7 Dolphins just registered their first home win in over a year, and now they are suddenly favored against a 5-4 team?

Sure the ‘Fins are riding a two-game win streak, but it's been against two last-place teams in the Chiefs and Redskins, so pump the brakes.

QB Matt Moore is still extremely prone to turnovers and the 25th-ranked pass defense isn’t scaring anybody.

Despite scoring a combined 18 points in their last two games, the Bills offense is still eighth in the NFL, averaging 25.4 points per game.

Expect RB Fred Jackson and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick to have a big bounce-back game and keep their team in playoff contention.

Key Trends:

Bills are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 meetings.

Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.

Dolphins are 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC.

Dolphins are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC East.

Prediction: Bills 26 Dolphins 21

Jacksonville Jaguars +1 @ Cleveland Browns

Let’s make this clear: the Jags stink. QB Blaine Gabbert is not improving and the passing game is ranked 32nd in the league.

The good news is that they are facing Colt McCoy. He is incapable of throwing the deep ball and doesn’t have the sort of receiving core to make up for it. The leading receiver is Greg Little, a guy who has a whopping 379 yards on the season. Maybe that’s why only four teams have scored fewer points than the Browns.

Woof.

Expect a top-10 Jaguars defense to smoother the depleted Browns' running game and force McCoy to throw the ball deep.

Key Trends:

Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November.

Jaguars are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

Jaguars are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC.

Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings. 

Prediction: Jaguars 21 Browns 16