NASCAR Sprint Cup: Why Brad Keselowski Is the Biggest Surprise of the Season

For Brad Keselowski 2010 was an up and down year. There were both figurative ups, winning the Nationwide Series championship with a brand new Penske Racing team the highest, and literal ups, such as Keselowski’s flight at the hands of Carl Edwards in the Sprint Cup race at Atlanta early in the season. But there were plenty of downs, too, particularly in Cup; Keselowski only mustered a 25^th place finish in points in his first full season at NASCAR’s highest level.

But knowing Roger Penske, that wasn’t going to be enough for 2011. With Sam Hornish relegated to the Nationwide Series, both Keselowski and remaining teammate Kurt Busch would receive more focus as Dodge’s only two fully-backed Sprint Cup teams. In fact, Keselowski would slide into the No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge, and while Penske has always been able to count on Busch, he was looking for significant improvement from Keselowski. He needed to be good.

But nobody saw it coming that he would be this good.

Granted, that’s partially because Busch started the season so hot. The No. 22 team won the season-opening Budweiser Shootout and its Gatorade Duel, and held the points lead for two weeks early in the season. Keselowski, meanwhile, dipped as low as 28^th in points after the first Richmond race, setting up what could have been the worst season of all time for Penske’s flagship car.

And then there was a glimmer of hope. Keselowski took his first win of the season at Kansas in June on fuel mileage, running out of gas as he celebrated. He then put in a string of so-so performances until, in a testing accident at Road Atlanta in early August, he broke his ankle.

Suddenly and inexplicably, an injured Keselowski and crew chief Paul Wolfe became the hottest tandem in the sport. As the regular season wound down and the desire to make the Chase was reaching crunch time, they strung together a series of championship-caliber runs. A win at Pocono, days after the testing accident. Second at the Watkins Glen road course, a superb effort given his hurt ankle. Third at Michigan. Another win at Bristol. When all was said and done, they’d scored three wins and ranked 11^th in points before reseeding.

And so the No. 2 team made the Chase as one of its two wild cards, based on the strength of those wins. But as a wild card, that meant that the bonus points earned for wins wouldn’t count. It’s a shame they didn’t, because they might have made this weekend’s race a three-way title fight otherwise.

Their Chase performance has been solid if not spectacular – four top fives and only one finish outside of the top 20—and they sit fourth in points. But Keselowski’s championship hopes effectively ended at Texas when he ran out of fuel late in the race and had to take a 24^th place finish, one lap down. Phoenix saw the No. 2 team come home 18^th, mathematically eliminating them, and they head into Homestead looking to maintain their position from the challenges of former champions Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth.

Just about every year, there is at least one Chase driver that defies all expectations to put together an unassuming title run. This year, Keselowski was that guy. He was the biggest surprise in NASCAR this year, but everybody will see him coming from this point forward. The question now is how much further up the ladder can he climb?