NFL Week 11 Picks Against the Spread for Every Game

Last week saw my picks finish a symmetric 8-8, which I suppose is apropos for an NFL week that stretched through 11-11-11.

I’m still three games above .500 on the season, but still unprofitable at 72-69-1. Most picks columns like these would include the tag “For entertainment purposes only,” but if you’re dumb enough to be putting your own money on these picks, then you probably deserve to be kicked down an income bracket or two.

This is the last of our bye weeks, and Indianapolis, Pittsburgh, New Orleans and Houston can thank the scheduling gods accordingly. Home teams are listed hereafter in ALL CAPS.

Let’s pick some games.

New York Jets -4.5 over DENVER

Here’s a bizarre Thursday nighter to open the week, as the Jets are scrambling to prepare for a trip to Denver to face the Broncos.

Denver has all but given up on the pass, failing to register a single completed pass in the first half of their game last week against Kansas City. John Fox, realizing the limitations of quarterback Tim Tebow, has resorted to a bastardized triple-option offense. “If we were trying to run a regular offense,” Fox told NFL Network, “(Tebow would be) screwed.”

The Jets defense collectively have lost a step compared to a year ago; they’re in the middle of the pack in terms of points and yardage allowed. But a Rex Ryan defense isn’t going to lose to Tim Tebow. Ryan had 41-year old Jets backup Mark Brunell running the scout team offense to prepare his defense. I’m pretty sure Brunell would have fared better than 2-of-8 passing against the Chiefs.

For more of my thoughts on this game, visit SNY.tv and watch my video with Ted Berg.

ATLANTA -6 over Tennessee

Matt Hasselbeck has only had two games all season where he hasn't turned the ball over at least once. One of those games was a 24-17 loss to the Bengals two weeks ago. Chris Johnson seems to have returned to form, logging 27 carries in last week's win against the Panthers.

The Titans are just a crazily mercurial team under Mike Munchak and Atlanta plays well at home, last week's 4th-down call notwithstanding. I personally thought Mike Smith's decision to go for it in overtime was fine, but the Saints deserved more credit for getting the stop on defense. Six points is a lot to lay here but I just can't take the Titans. They're just a little too weird for me.

Buffalo +2.5 over MIAMI

The Dolphins beat up on a Redskins team that can’t decide on a quarterback and now they’re favored in a divisional game? Hey, I’m not complaining. I’ll take the two-and-a-half.

Ryan Fitzpatrick was picked off three times in a game that was already out of hand, so I’m not worried about him. Miami has the benefits of a hot Reggie Bush and having no pressure to make the playoffs. But Buffalo has the benefit of spending a weekend away from Buffalo.

Cincinnati +7 over BALTIMORE

This might be a must-win game for the Bengals, who will have to “break serve” in a divisional game without Leon Hall, who was having a great season before the cornerback tore his Achilles tendon against the Steelers.

This is the second of four straight divisional games for the Bengals, who went from holding the No. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs last week to clinging to the No. 6 this week. They can’t afford to fall any further.

Jacksonville -1 over CLEVELAND

The NFL’s two islands of misfit toys collide in a game that will probably be blacked out everywhere, except maybe in Guantanamo Bay.

Jacksonville gets the nod here for its strong defense (eighth in scoring D, fifth in pass D) in what offensively has been a disappointing season for the Jags. I guess that’ll happen when you cut your starting quarterback five days before your season opener.

Cleveland has shown their proficiency in losing close games, another trend that makes “under 35.5” look mighty tasty for this Sunday.

Oakland +1 over MINNESOTA

I just noticed that I haven’t picked a single home team to win so far, but I can’t start with the Vikings, who were shellacked by the Aaron Rodgers Express on Monday night. I like Christian Ponder under center, but that Vikings defense just gives up too many points. Only the Colts out-suck Minny in scoring defense.

Meanwhile, Carson Palmer seemed to take a huge step forward with his pyrotechnics show against the Chargers last week, but still turned the ball over twice. The Raiders can maintain their division lead with a win here, and they’re playing well enough to do that.

Carolina +7 over DETROIT

I was championing Cam Newton and the Panthers earlier in the season for playing competitively in losing efforts. But they lost to Atlanta by two scores last month and last week they were blown up by a newly awakened Chris Johnson and the Titans. But the Panthers aren’t the only team that might have run out of gas; Detroit has lost three of its last four after a 5-0 start.

No one would blame the Lions for looking ahead on their schedule. After the Panthers, Detroit plays the Packers and the Saints in New Orleans. If the Panthers can respond to their lapse against the Titans last week, we should see a close game.

GREEN BAY -13 over Tampa Bay

I took the Vikings +13 in that Monday night massacre. I will never doubt Aaron Rodgers again. If he travels back in time to play the 2006 Patriots and his only viable options at receiver are Jar Jar Binks and the 1950 Ford Edsel, I’m taking Aaron Rodgers.

With Albert Haynesworth on the Buccaneers’ defensive line now, I think it’s only a matter of time before that team implodes. Tampa Bay (4-5, ninth in NFC conference standings) still has a chance to make a playoff push, but that push won’t happen this week.

Dallas -7.5 over WASHINGTON

Rex Grossman will be starting for the Redskins. Shall I go on?

SAN FRANCISCO -9.5 over Arizona

The Niners, um, have a five-game lead in their division...and there are seven weeks left in the season. San Fran hasn’t had a winning season in almost a decade and now they’re going to be dormie with more than a month left in the season!

In Arizona, John Skelton will be starting for Arizona for the third straight week. I had to check three different sites to make sure that was a real guy and not some character from one of the Halloween movies.

ST. LOUIS -2 over Seattle

Sam Bradford has been lackluster in his return from injury, with only one touchdown to show for his two games. Conversely, the Seahawks managed to catch the Ravens with a bit of West Coast jet lag and pummel them with Marshawn Lynch (32 rushes, 109 yards, 1 TD).

I’m taking the Rams because they’re at home and the only thing uglier than Lynch’s neon cleats is that nasty-looking dome turf in St. Louis.

CHICAGO +3.5 over San Diego

Alright, I’m done making fun of Chicago. Lesson learned.

And I just realized something else: if everyone that took umbrage with my Lions' pick last weekend sent Matt Forte $100, he wouldn’t have to worry about that contract extension. Of course, we should just buy our own team if we wanted to do something like that. I bet we could get a good deal on the Jags. They might even cost less than an actual Jag.

NEW YORK GIANTS -3 over Philadelphia

Not to tease any of the folks in Philly, but this might finally be the year that Andy Reid gets the ax.

Reid’s defense is still reeling from the loss of defensive coordinator Jim Johnson and free-agent cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha has not meshed into the organization as originally hoped. After a great game against the Cowboys after coming off the bye week, Michael Vick has played poorly in his last two games and might even sit this one out with two cracked ribs. To say the Eagles have come up short of preseason expectations would be an understatement.

The Giants, for their part, are still playing well, and were a Mario Manningham drop from taking the Niners to overtime last week. New York is 3-1 at home, and will have a nationally televised opportunity to make it 4-1.

For more of my thoughts on this game, visit SNY.tv and watch my video with Ted Berg.

NEW ENGLAND over Kansas City

If there ever was a litmus indicator for the badness of a Monday night matchup, it would be the fact that Vegas hates the game so much that they don’t put a line on it.

I saw that 5dimes.com had New England -16, but I guess anything after two touchdowns is just conjecture. With Matt Cassel out for the season with a hand injury, the Chiefs are just toast. I smell another Monday night massacre.