UFC on FOX: Junior Dos Santos and Why Lesnar and Overeem Are Threats

Following an historic debut for the Ultimate Fighting Championship on the FOX network, November 12^th will forever be a date revered in the heart and souls of MMA fans worldwide.

For the first time since Larry Holmes defended the IBF title against Carl Williams on NBC in 1985, a major heavyweight championship was up for grabs on free network television.

Brazilian wrecking machine Junior dos Santos blitzkrieged Cain Velasquez with a monstrous right hand, flooring the proud Mexican-American champion in just a little over one minute into the fight to claim the greatest prize in MMA today—the UFC Heavyweight championship.

With the victory, Dos Santos certainly proved himself as the top heavyweight in the sport but he also put a massive target on his shoulder. This is a target that no other heavyweight in the UFC’s past has been able to keep for more than four fights.

If history shows us anything it’s that everything changes once a heavyweight captures UFC gold. Dos Santos has looked absolutely indestructible ever since debuting in the Octagon but the same could be said about heavyweight champions of the UFC’s past and they failed to hold onto the belt long enough to clean out the division.

Dos Santos might change that. The Brazilian knockout artist has all of the potential to establish a title reign that would rival former PRIDE Heavyweight champ Fedor Emelianenko, who defended his title 13 consecutive times from 2003 to 2006.

First things first, however, dos Santos must get through his first challenger before we can even begin prophesying a record breaking title reign.

24 hours before New Year’s Eve 2011, UFC 141 will take place at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, NV. Former UFC Heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar will return to action against former Strikeforce and K-1 Heavyweight champion Alistair Overeem.

The winner of that colossal matchup will get the first crack at dos Santos and either one of those men could put an end to the Brazilian’s reign before it even starts.

Why Brock Lesnar is a threat

There are many question marks surrounding the former UFC, WWE and NCAA champion. An ongoing battle with diverticulitis has put Lesnar on the shelf for over a year and many wonder if he will ever return to his dominant ways.

In his October 2010 defeat at the hands of Velasquez, Lesnar was seemingly exposed as a one-dimensional fighter that lacks basic striking defense.

Lesnar could not keep Velasquez, a fellow NCAA Division I national champion, on his back long enough to implement a smothering gameplan of ground and pound and top control. He was forced to stand with Velasquez, a better technical striker, and he was outclassed in every aspect imaginable.

Due to that loss, many pundits believe Lesnar stands little chance against a world-class kickboxer like Overeem or a knockout artist like dos Santos.

To look past Lesnar is absolutely absurd. One of the hardest working, self-motivated heavyweights in the sport, Lesnar has had an entire year to turn his weaknesses into strengths.

That’s not to say that Lesnar will enter the Octagon on December 30^th and miraculously become an elite kickboxer but he will approach Overeem much more intelligently than he did Velasquez.

 You’re not going to see Lesnar run across the Octagon and attempt a wild flying knee against “The Reem.” Lesnar will look to utilize his explosive wrestling base in a calculated manner, put Overeem on his back and pound his way to victory.

Experts can spout all they want about Lesnar’s sloppy standup technique but Overeem has never competed against a wrestler of Lesnar’s caliber before.

Dos Santos stopped Velasquez in a short and sweet manner but the AKA product’s gameplan was questionable to say the least. Perhaps too confident in his standup abilities, Velasquez stood in front of dos Santos rather than using his strikes to set up takedowns.

Lesnar can learn from Velasquez’ failure and fight a smarter battle against the new champion if he is the one that is next in line.

UFC President Dana White said during the FOX broadcast that dos Santos has “beaten all of the best wrestlers in the heavyweight division”. No disrespect to Shane Carwin but his takedown attempts looked atrocious against dos Santos and Velasquez barely shot in on the Brazilian.

Few men can defend a takedown from Lesnar and even fewer have the ability to stand right back up. It remains to be seen if dos Santos can neutralize Lesnar’s grizzly bear-esque wrestling.

Why Alistair Overeem is a threat

Make no mistake about it, as vicious as dos Santos is on the feet, Overeem is a kickboxing God. Some fighters claim to be world-class strikers but Overeem is the only one with the credentials to make that claim in MMA.

In 2010, Overeem won the K-1 World Heavyweight Grand Prix by viciously destroying four of the best kickboxers in the entire world. Of course, MMA and kickboxing are two different environments but Overeem carries over his striking dominance in the cage better than any professional kickboxer of the past and present.

I mentioned the strategy that Lesnar could implement to defeat Overeem, and while that is certainly a possibility, it is also a lot easier said than done. Overeem is faster, stronger and more technical on his feet than both Velasquez and Carwin.

Lesnar will undoubtedly come in with a smart gameplan but it just might not be enough. Overeem can hurt Lesnar from all angles with any striking combination and Lesnar will not see it coming nor will he know how to defend himself.

If it is Overeem who challenges dos Santos in 2012 for the heavyweight championship of the world, dos Santos might be in for a rough night.

 It’s very possible that “The Demolition Man” is superior to dos Santos in the standup department, although we won’t really know until they meet in the Octagon.

Dos Santos is used to having a significant advantage as a striker. Overeem could take the champion out of his comfort zone, frustrate him, and knock him out to prove his supporters correct that he is the baddest man on the planet.

Mitch Ciccarelli is the sexiest columnist in MMA. He’s so sexy, that even top ranked welterweight contenders get pissed when Ciccarelli flirts with their girlfriends. When Chuck Norris goes to sleep at night, he looks under his bed…not for the boogey man, but for Ciccarelli. Follow this Godlike writer on Twitter  @mitchciccarelli