Tennessee vs. Arkansas: Can Vols Squeeze out 2 More Wins to Be Bowl Eligible?

While going to a bowl game was once a certainty for Tennessee Volunteer fans (as Tennessee won at least eight games every year from 1989-2004), the situation has been much different the last six seasons, with Tennessee staying home twice in that span and sneaking in twice with just six or seven wins.

With three games left in the 2011 regular season and the Volunteers sitting at 4-5, the big question in Knoxville is whether coach Derek Dooley can win two of them and take Tennessee to a bowl game.

The Remaining Games

The bad news is the Volunteers have only SEC opponents remaining on their 2011 schedule, after having lost all five of their games against conference opponents so far this year. The good news is two of those opponents, the Kentucky Wildcats and Vanderbilt Commodores, are very mediocre teams, both of which also sit at 4-5.

Unfortunately, the Volunteers will likely have to beat both of them, as I don't see them winning in Fayetteville today. After getting stomped by the LSU Tigers and Alabama Crimson Tide, it's hard to imagine Tennessee beating the No. 8 Arkansas Razorbacks on the road.

Tennessee gets Vanderbilt at home. Just as they always are, the Volunteers are more talented and athletic than the Commodores this year. However, despite losing four of their last five, Vanderbilt has been playing much better the last few weeks. They only lost to the Georgia Bulldogs and Florida Gators (in the Swamp) by five points each, and they would have beaten the No. 8 Razorbacks were it not for a 94-yard fumble return for a touchdown. 

Then to finish the season, Tennessee has to travel to face the Kentucky Wildcats. Kentucky has not been particularly good this year, with their only SEC win coming against the hapless Mississippi Rebels.

The Outlook

Yes, the Volunteers have lost all five SEC games so far this season. However, that number is slightly skewed. They've only played the two SEC West powerhouses (LSU and Alabama) and the three best teams in the SEC East. After playing Arkansas today, they will have played the three best teams in each division in their six conference games.

Once they get to face Vanderbilt and Kentucky, they will be seeing a much lower quality opponent. Unfortunately, a loss to Arkansas will mean that Tennessee has to win both of those games to go bowling.

It's not implausible that they should do so, but with the Commodores playing better and the game against the Wildcats happening in Lexington, I don't think they can pull them both out. I think Tennessee is going to come up just short this year at 5-7.