Fantasy Football's Week 16 Start and Sits

It is hard to believe that the NFL’s regular season is almost over.

This year has been exciting as so few teams have locked up playoff spots, and those of us who love the game still have a lot to talk about.

Then there is fantasy football. For most of us, this is championship week.

Start of the Week

The Detroit Kittens (Lions) are a joke and should continue their crusade for the imperfect season. Just how bad is the Kittens’ run defense?

They have given up 625 all-purpose yards to RBs over the last three weeks and eight total touchdowns.

The all-purpose yards is on par with other poor defenses like the Oakland Raiders (sorry Raider Nation).

However, what truly makes the Kittens the matchup to salivate over, is their rushing TD allowed.

They have given up eight rushing touchdowns over the last three weeks. That is three more TD than the Buccaneers and Packers who are tied with five or an average of a TD more per game.

It is also twice the total touchdowns that the top 10 defenses versus RB have given up in that same time frame!

In PPR leagues, the Lions are giving up an average of 40.8 fantasy points per game. What this means is if you own Pierre Thomas, get him into your flex position or RB2 immediately.

He is also very likely to outscore some of the top fantasy studs this week, again. I know people love Reggie Bush and he will be started too, especially in PPR formats, but the true gold here is Thomas.

Thomas is the main rushing threat with Deuce McAllister fading. He is also the back who will get most of the goal line touches and the greater chance to score those coveted fantasy touchdowns. If Thomas is available, grab him.

If you are a keeper league and he is available, do it double time. Reggie Bush has shown over the last two seasons he can not stay healthy for an entire campaign.

Deuce McAllister has his own injury concerns and is getting up there in age. By the time you make your keeper decision, it is possible that Deuce will have retired or been moved on to another team.

If this happens, Thomas becomes a viable keeper option for leagues who keep four or more players.

QBs to start

Owners who grabbed Kurt Warner late in the draft, as nothing more than a fantasy handcuff, and are in the playoffs will benefit greatly this weekend. Arizona plays New England.

New England has been moderately stingy on yardage given up, allowing 211 yards passing per game for the last three weeks. Where they (Pats D) have been weak is in TD allowed.

New England has given up 2.3 TD per game over the last three weeks. Look for Kurt to get a minimum of two touchdown passes, while he exceeds New England’s passing yardage average of the past three weeks.

Arizona still has reason to play, as they have an outside chance for a first-round bye. I do not expect Warner to be sat this week.

Another quarterback with a lot to play for is Chad Pennington. If you have been playing QB roulette look to start Chad this week.

Not only does he have a great first name, but also the Dolphins are still in the hunt for the playoffs as Miami, New England, and New York are all in a three-way tie for first place.

On top of the playoff competition, Miami is playing Kansas City who is giving up an average of 20.2 fantasy points per week in yardage leagues over the last three weeks.

The Chiefs' numbers have not been horrible (four TD and 764 yards) over the last three weeks, but they have been vulnerable enough for Pennington to have a good game.
I’d say 250 yards and a touchdown are obtainable. On a team where you are loaded at WR and RB, Pennington is good enough to get you the win.

Staying in the AFC East, Matt Cassel is a great play as well. Over the last three weeks, Arizona has the worst defense vs. QB fantasy points. They have given up nine total touchdowns and 215 passing yards per game.

Cassel is playing for a new contract, and New England needs the win to keep their playoff hopes alive. Start him this week.

QBs to Sit

Like above, where New England and Arizona provide a game where there should be much scoring, Pittsburgh at Tennessee provide a game to avoid.

Pittsburgh is the No. 1 passing defense in yardage leagues giving up just 10 fantasy points a game to quarterbacks over the last three weeks. Tennessee is not that far behind giving up 12.7 over that same period.

Do not even consider Kerry Collins if you are in a QBBC situation. If Collins does not turn the ball over to a defense that has seven interceptions over the last three weeks, (tied for first in INTs) that means he will be careful with the ball and his passing yards will be severely limited.

Meanwhile, Ben Roethlisberger is mobile enough to avoid the hampered pass rush of Tennessee, (Albert Haynesworth will miss the game) he will find it hard throwing into Tennessee’s secondary.

I think Nate Washington and Santonio Holmes will be limited in making the big play forcing Pittsburgh to run the ball to win. Hines Ward will still make plays and provide some statistical relief but Tennessee will limit Big Ben’s production.

If you own Tony Romo, this week, you could be in some trouble. Dallas continues the gauntlet this week as they play Baltimore.

The Ravens will be up for this game and their defense has been ferocious this year. Tony can still make enough plays to put up 200 yards and two passing touchdowns. That stat line should not be easily obtainable. Baltimore has given up only two passing touchdowns the last three weeks. So, Dallas could be hard pressed for those two passing touchdowns.

I also think it is very possible that Romo will fumble the ball once or twice from the Ravens’ pressure. Depending on who your other options are, and if your league penalizes for fumbles, you might want to consider benching Romo this week. In most cases though, ride your stud and hope for the best...

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By Chad Samuel