Pacquiao vs. Marquez: 5 Reasons Marquez Will Pull off the Upset

Manny Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez will do battle in the third leg of their epic trilogy this Saturday night.

Pacquiao is a huge betting favorite for the fight, and most experts also believe Pac-Man will cruise to victory over grizzled veteran Marquez.

Highly esteemed trainer Virgil Hunter is one of the few observers who has come out and predicted a victory for Marquez this weekend.  Hunter currently trains super-middleweight world champion Andre Ward, and believes Marquez will pull off a split decision victory to even up the trilogy.

When you look at the last two fights between Pacquiao and Marquez, it is certain that Marquez has earned a little more respect than he is getting from the bookmakers.

In the first clash, Marquez rose from the canvas three times and dominated the latter part of the fight to earn a draw.  In the second fight, Pacquiao registered a contentious split-decision victory.  Marquez landed more power punches in the second fight, according to Compubox statistics, and the result is still disputed to this day.

Here we give you five reasons why Marquez will even up this epic trilogy by upsetting Pac-Man on Saturday night.

Prior Knowledge

One of Manny Pacquiao’s biggest assets is the blinding speed with which he launches his attacks.  This blinding speed is coupled with pinpoint accuracy, and the ability to throw punches from a range of different angles.

So brutal is the initial onslaught of Pac-Man, opponents often go down early and struggle to ever get up to speed.  You have to wonder whether Ricky Hatton thought he was fighting two men when he was hit so often during his brutal two-round knockout defeat.

Marquez knows this, because he suffered the same fate himself.  During the opening rounds of his first fight against Pacquiao, he was knocked down three times.  Unlike so many before him, Marquez did not stay down, adjusted and managed to wrestle control of the fight away from Pac-Man, dominating the latter rounds.

During the second fight, Marquez was harder to hit and landed more power punches than Manny.  With two fights worth of video to analyze going into this battle, Marquez now knows what does and does not work against Pac-Man.

Confidence

Every boxer on earth will tell you that they are confident of victory before they step between the ropes.  Ricky Hatton was confident when he fought Pacquiao, and so was Oscar De La Hoya.  However, these men were astounded by the speed and strength that they encountered when the bell rang.

Not only does Marquez know what is coming when he faces Pacquiao, he knows he has had success against it.  He has dominated the second half of the first fight, and landed many solid blows as he countered Pac-Man’s aggressive style in the rematch.

While Marquez did not beat Pacquiao yet in the record books, he thinks he did, and that can be a big mental boost for Juan Manuel as he steps between the ropes.

Politics

“I have time for politics.  I have time for boxing,” is the mantra repeated by Pacquiao whenever the subject of his political career is broached.

While that was certainly true at first, there has to come a point when his time commitment to boxing is impeded.  In the buildup to Pac-Man’s fight against Antonio Margarito, the first chinks in the armor showed when both Freddie Roach and Alex Ariza questioned whether Pacquiao was fully focused.

It is logical to think that the longer Pacquiao is involved in politics, the more time he will commit to it.  By the time he realizes his performance is affected, it could be too late and he could have lost a fight.  That time could come as soon as this weekend.

Strategy

No fighter is invincible in all facets of the sport, and Manny Pacquiao is no exception.  Marquez and his trainer Ignacio "Nacho" Beristain believe that they know exactly how to take Pacquiao to the later rounds and wear him out.

Marquez made the fight a toe-to-toe brawl during the latter stages of the first contest, and gave Pacquiao as much trouble as he has ever experienced in his career.

It appears that the strategy of getting in close that has brought previous success is going to be repeated by Marquez, as he aims to register a win over Pac-Man this weekend.

“If Juan Manuel dominates that combat zone, he will take Pacquiao to round 12 again,” Beristain told The Philippine Star official website.  “If we manage to make Marquez understand that if he dominates that little space, he will beat him and then he’ll beat him again.”

Motivation

Juan Manuel Marquez is fully focused on this fight, and knows a win could add a significant chapter to his resume.  Indeed, the profile of Marquez could be improved forever in the eyes of boxing fans if he finishes his career with a victory this weekend.

To train for a fight knowing such things are at stake is a powerful motivating force.  It must add a motivational edge every day knowing your standing in the history of the sport can change for the better by winning this one fight.

Pacquiao simply does not have this motivation, and a win over Marquez will add very little to his resume in the grand scheme of things.

While they are making all the right noises in the buildup to this fight, Team Pacquiao have revealed their lack of excitement for fights such as this previously.

“I would have no problem with him retiring after this fight,” Freddie Roach said after Pac-Man beat Antonio Margarito.  “Without Floyd Mayweather, there is no challenge.”

Such an attitude from Team Pacquiao makes it a very realistic possibility that complacency could sneak into the preparations for the fight this weekend.