NFL Week 10 Picks: Why Bears, Patriots Are Stone Cold Locks of the Week

Week 10 is turning into statement Sunday.

There are scores of divisional games on the slate between teams jockeying for playoff position. A win and they are in the driver's seat—a loss and they need outside forces to help them recover.

Here are two of those games that, upon further review, have a clear outcome:

(Spreads courtesy of Covers.com)

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears -2.5

The Lions are coming off a bye and the Bears just had a Monday nighter—big deal.

Teams are under .500 after the bye this season and the Bears weren’t too beaten up after their big victory over the Eagles.

The main thing to remember here is the running game. The Lions can’t move the chains whatsoever without Jahvid Best (doubtful), and they sport the 27th-ranked rushing attack in the NFL (95.3 YPG) to begin with. Maurice Morris and Keiland Williams aren’t exactly keeping Lance Briggs up late at night.

The Bears can focus on limiting Calvin Johnson in the downfield passing game and cranking up the pressure on Matthew Stafford. With a merely average O-Line, that’s not a good thing for the Lions.

With a run defense ranked 28th in the NFL (137.6), expect Matt Forte to run wild, while Jay Cutler makes the Lions defense stay honest as the Bears to win easily.

Key Trends:

Bears are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a favorite.

Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite.

Lions are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games in Week 10.

Prediction: Bears 27, Lions 20

New England Patriots +1 at New York Jets

And you thought the Pats were mad last week.

After losing two in a row, it’s hard to conceive a scenario where the Pats don’t come out determined to dominate their arch-rival (sorry Indy) and return to the throne in the AFC East. Tom Brady has experienced three sub-par games in a row and I expect him to throw for at least 300 yards yet again like he did in their first matchup.

The big difference will be a renewed emphasis on running the ball. BenJarvus Green-Ellis ran for 136 yards (5.0 yards per carry) in the first matchup and expect him to be fed the rock quite often on Sunday against an inconsistent Jets defense.

The Pats will shut down the run, forcing the Jets to pass 30-plus times. Even the Pats' horrific secondary should be able to contain Mark Sanchez—the pressure is on him to make plays.

Key Trends:

Patriots are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings in New York.

Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Patriots are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games as an underdog.

Patriots are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games as a road underdog.

Prediction: Patriots 33, Jets 27