2012 NFL Draft: 10 Underclassmen Who Would Be Fools to Declare

It's hard to believe but the college football regular seasons isn't that far away. 

And even if the NFL Draft is still half a year from now, underclassmen will have to make their decisions about declaring long before late April. So besides final exams and game plans for the big-time conference rival a large group of superstars have to weigh the options of staying in college for another year or heading for the NFL.

Now for some underclassmen out there (Andrew Luck, LaMichael James, Justin Blackmon) the decision seems to be obvious: their draft stock can't improve enough to warrant another season in college. 

But other players–given on their current profile and performance in 2011–returning to campus for one more season is the best decision.

No. 10: Rex Burkhead, RB, Nebraska

2011 Stats: 187 carries, 951 yards, 13 TDs

Burkhead is having a tremendous season, there's no question about it.  He's averaging over 100 yards per game and is a reliable threat in the passing game as well.

But those stats won't wow scouts enough to pull him off the board in one of the early rounds. Right now there are probably 20 or so backs who would go before him. If he stays in Lincoln, next year, he'll have a great shot at playing in back-to-back BCS bowls and significantly raise his profile. 

Probably not to the point of a first rounder, but who knows. 

No. 9: Riley Reiff, OT, Iowa

Three reasons why I think Reiff should stay another year in Iowa City:

First, the Hawkeyes are having a pretty marginal season, but the way things are going in the Big Ten right now, Iowa certainly could could rebound nicely next year and contend for a Big Ten Championship.

Secondly, Reiff does have some of the "baggage" that NFL teams are always leery of: that arrest for public intoxication a few years ago. Another season, in college would make that seem even further away.

Third, the presence of that pair of Pac-12 tackles (Matt Kalil and Jonathan Martin) will probably keep Reiff from being selected during the top half of the first round. 

No. 8: Dwayne Allen, TE, Clemson

2011 Stats: 37 catches, 464 yards, 5 TD

As of right now, Allen seems to be the best tight end prospect and therefore would be the first one to go next April.

But in recent years tight ends have not been top 10 picks (not since Vernon Davis in 2006) and as good as Allen is, he probably hasn't done enough to buck that trend. And don't forget that the "best" tight end in the draft, Kyle Rudolph, was the first to come off the board....on Day Two. 

As a senior–another year older and perhaps another year in a big time, rising program–Allen might build up enough buzz to climb into the Top 10 or so. Right now, unless he has a Vernon Davis-like combine, that seems unlikely. 

No. 7: Nick Perry, DE, USC

2011 Stats: 41 tackles, 5 sacks, 8 tackles-for-loss

As is the case with the top player on this list, part of the reason why Perry should spend another year is the potential for a remarkable Trojan resurgence in 2012. Just imagine how big of a story and how much love that Trojan team will get next year if they are able to return to the national championship race so close to the Reggie Bush scandal and the penalties that followed. 

But he also might be a little bit raw for scouts. He's only 6'3" and 250 pounds and doesn't have that prototypical frame. Furthermore, early indications suggest that he isn't even a first round pick at this point. Sure that could change by the time of the combine, but that's got to be a somewhat huge gamble.

Give him a third year as a key player in an NFL system and he could climb as high as the top five. 

Oh, and another year in Southern California is hard to pass up. 

No. 6: Morris Claiborne, CB, LSU

2011 Stats: 33 tackles, 4 INT

I know what you're thinking: fellow Tiger Patrick Peterson went fifth overall just a year ago and in 2011 LSU has a shot at winning the national championship, so why wouldn't  Claiborne come out?

But that's not the right way to look at it. 

For one, Claiborn isn't nearly as big as Peterson was: Claiborne is 185 pounds, Peterson was almost 220 by Draft Day. Claiborne will gain plenty of muscle and weight but that much?

Furthermore, Peterson's punt return abilities greatly aided his climb into the top five. Claiborne is a fine kick returner and had that touchdown against West Virginia, but I don't NFL scouts will look at as possibly the best athlete in the draft, the way they did at Peterson a year ago. 

No. 5: Alshon Jeffery, WR, South Carolina

2011 Stats: 36 catches, 487 yards, 5 TD

Granted last April a pair of SEC wide receivers went in the first hour of the draft. And although Jeffery doesn't have the same type of speed as Julio Jones or the route-running ability of A.J. Green, his athleticism and leaping does put him in that Calvin Johnson-mold that any NFL team would like to have.

But he hasn't had a blistering season in 2011--nowhere near the numbers he had as a sophomore--and that will probably be a red flag for some clubs.

With Justin Blackmon out there, and possibly playing in a national championship game in January, it's likely that he'll be the second wide out taken. Now that might still be in the Top 10, but assuming he stays healthy, I expect him to be a Top 3 pick in 2013. 

No. 4: Denard Robinson, QB, Michigan

2011 Stats: 93-for-179, 1,519 yards passing, 13 TD, 12 INT, 139 carries, 834 yards rushing, 10 TD

It was fairly obvious that Robinson's personal stats would take a hit with the transition from Rich Rodriguez spread to Brady Hoke's offense. But that doesn't mean that–-given another year in the system–by 2012, he can return to Heisman trophy form and perhaps lead the Wolverines back to a BCS Bowl game.

That would certainly improve his draft stock, regardless of whether NFL teams look at him as a quarterback, running back, or wide receiver. 

But since you have to assume Robinson wants to play QB in the NFL, he's going to need another year at this level just to have a chance of being a viable NFL signal caller. He could probably declare for the draft tomorrow and be high on team's board in the "athlete" category, but no one will seriously consider him as a passer with a 50-something completion percentage. He can greatly improve that as a senior. 

No. 3: Robert Griffin III, QB, Baylor

2011 Stats: 202-for-273, 2,781 yards passing, 26 TD, 4 INT, 106 carries, 386 yards rushing, 4 TD

Just because the Bears have went in the during October, doesn't mean Griffin has. He's still been ridiculously sharp as a passer (74 percent completion!) and able to create plays outside of the pocket.

So much like Christian Ponder last year or Josh Freeman was in 2009 I think Griffin has a shot of being that "darkhorse" first round pick. 

But with all the buzz that he and Baylor created in early September, he could be a front runner for the Heisman next season. That's just not in the cards this year with Andrew Luck, Trent Richardson, Kellen Moore, Landry Jones, and Case Keenum. 

Plus, with the continued depletion of the Big XII, next year's conference race is wide open. 

No. 2: Ray Graham, RB, Pitt

2011 Stats: 164 carries, 968yards rushing, 9 TD

Now the curious case of Willis McGahee does make it possible for Graham to still land in the early portion of the 2012 draft despite his season-ending knee injury. But then again, the curious case of Da'Quan Bowers probably cancels that out.

Sure he risks another injury or further damaging the knee and completely ruining any shot at an NFL career. But in 2012, he's going to have to prove, one way or another, that the knee is healed so he might as well do it at the college level, where the season is shorter, the expectations not so demanding, and where he can reclaim his spot as a high first round pick. 

No. 1: Matt Barkley, QB, USC

2011 Stats: 229-for-342, 2,608 yards passing, 26 TD, 8 INT

Sure, Barkley is a first round pick next April. Maybe even a top 10 pick, the second quarterback taken after fellow Pac-12 star Andrew Luck.

But Barkley has to be itching to stay another year just so his USC career can actually mean something. 

With the way the Trojans have played recently they figure to be a contender for the BCS Championship next year, or at least a major Bowl. (Because of the post-season ban, if he leaves after 2011, the most prestigious bowl he'll have played in is the Emerald Bowl). And you can expect Lane Kiffin to beg him to stay.

And don't think that the possibility of being the Rick Mirer to Andrew Luck's Drew Bledsoe or the Ryan Leaf to his Peyton Manning will fail to effect Barkley's decision-making process.