Tennessee Football: Bowl Projections for the Volunteers

November is here. Turkeys everywhere have gone on notice that their time is coming soon. That only means one thing: Another college football season is winding to a close. 

With the 2011 season hitting its final stretch it's time to talk bowl projections.

Some programs are already assured of bowl eligibility. It's not a question of "if," but "where" and "how much will our payout be."

The 2011 Tennessee Volunteers have no such guarantee with just three weeks remaining in the season. The Vols' disastrous October has put head coach Derek Dooley squarely behind the eight-ball, needing two wins in three games to become bowl eligible. 

The lack of certainty surrounding the Vols' postseason status will never stop speculation on where and/or which team Tennessee will play in late December or early January. 

Here are some likely and some not-so-likely bowl destinations for the Tennessee Volunteers.

Outback Bowl | Chances: Slim and None

The Outback Bowl committee's thought process is an enigma wrapped up in a mystery entangled in a web of oddness and greed. The Tampa, Fla. bowl routinely takes what it wants, when it wants and leaves the remaining SEC teams to find suitable accommodations elsewhere. 

Considering all of that, this is still a stretch of monumental proportions. The Vols should not end up in Tampa. The only way this is even a possibility is if Tennessee wins its final three games to get to seven wins on the season and either Florida, Auburn and/or South Carolina ends up with similar 7-5 records.

Prediction: Although it would be possible if the Vols reach seven wins, even the Outback Bowl isn't crazy enough to take a 6-6 Tennessee team. 

Chick-fil-A Bowl | Chances: Not Likely

The New Year's Eve bowl gets the SEC's fifth selection.

Atlanta loves the Vols. There are many Tennessee supporters in and around Georgia's capital city and the drive is not that far for most east Tennessee-based Vols fans. 

The atmosphere is like a home game when Tennessee plays in the Georgia Dome. 

Unfortunately for the Vols, the stadium has become a house of horrors. Tennessee has lost six straight contests (three bowl games, three SEC Championship Games) in the Georgia Dome dating back to December 2001. 

Tennessee would have to defeat Arkansas, Vanderbilt and Kentucky to finish 7-5 for this to become a realistic destination for the Vols. There are too many attractive options among the SEC's top five selections for a 6-6 Tennessee team to be selected here. 

Prediction: Tennessee will not end up in Atlanta. This spot will go to either Florida or Auburn. 

BBVA Compass Bowl | Chances: Possible

The BBVA Compass Bowl has been around since 2006 and it only joined the SEC bowl pecking order for the 2009 season. In each of the first two SEC-involved BBVA Compass Bowls, the SEC team has lost (South Carolina in '10 and Kentucky in '11).

This bowl shares the last pick of the SEC's bowl eligible teams with the Liberty Bowl. It's unlikely that the Vols would fall that far in the pecking order since their loyal fans travel well and usually buy bowl tickets in droves.

But without stars like Justin Hunter and Tyler Bray, this Tennessee team has become somewhat boring to watch against quality opponents. Bray should be back well before the bowl game, but this Tennessee team might not be that attractive matchup-wise should the sophomore suffer any type of setback. 

Such a scenario could land the Vols in Birmingham versus pretty much any team from the jumbled Big East, save Cincinnati. 

Prediction: The Vols do not end up in Birmingham. Ticket sales mean too much to the bowl committees picking ahead of the BBVA Compass Bowl.

Liberty Bowl | Chances: Possible

The Liberty Bowl would probably love to have the Vols. Bowl officials for the Memphis, Tenn. bowl face the same issues that the BBVA Compass Bowl would face, however. 

The Liberty Bowl shares the next-to-last and/or last SEC pick with the Birmingham-based bowl. 

This bowl cannot be ruled out based on the same reasons the BBVA Compass Bowl can't be dismissed. If Tennessee is as unattractive on the field when the selections are made as it is right now, the Vols could land in Memphis. 

Tennessee fans should want nothing to do with the Vols likely opponent should Tennessee make it here.

The Liberty Bowl is a championship game of sorts for the winner of Conference USA. That team in 2011 is most likely going to be undefeated, BCS No. 11 Houston.

Prediction: Mercifully, the Vols will not end up in the Liberty Bowl. 

Gator Bowl | Chances: Slightly Better Than Decent

One of just a handful of post-New Year's Day bowl possibilities for the Vols was reportedly on the verge of taking Tennessee last season before Mississippi State offered to guarantee a certain number of ticket sales. 

It's a fairly decent possibility that Tennessee could wind up here at season's end. Barring an, as yet, unforeseen meltdown among the top teams in the SEC, the nation's toughest conference should get two teams into the BCS again this season. 

That would give the first SEC non-BCS pick to the Capital One Bowl. That bowl is usually followed by the Cotton, Outback and Chick-fil-A Bowls. Those four should take care of Georgia, Arkansas, South Carolina and either Florida or Auburn. 

The sixth bowl in the SEC's pecking order is the Gator Bowl. Either Florida or Auburn would be quite attractive for the Jacksonville-based bowl. But Tennessee will be right there as well.

If the Vols pull an upset of Arkansas and finish the season 7-5, the Gator Bowl would have a difficult time choosing Auburn or Florida over the Vols. 

Prediction: Considering last season's courtship between Tennessee and the Gator Bowl this has to remain a decent possibility. It shouldn't be considered a likely destination for the Vols, however.

In the end, Tennessee's 6-6 record won't compare with a seven win Auburn or Florida. 

Music City Bowl | Chances: Likely

Part two of the horror show that was the Vols' 2010 season happened in this bowl last season. Make no mistake about it, however, the Music City Bowl would love to have the Vols back at the end of this season.

LP Stadium became Neyland-West for Music City Bowl officials and the atmosphere was one of the more electric of all the pre-January bowl games a year ago. 

The Nashville, Tenn.-based bowl gets the seventh selection in the SEC pecking order and, while possible, it's not likely that the Vols would be selected by an SEC-affiliated bowl with a higher priority number. 

Tennessee would play the ACC's sixth selection which could be any team not-named Clemson, Virginia Tech or Georgia Tech. 

Prediction: This is precisely where the Vols will land for a second consecutive bowl season.

Tennessee will play either Virginia or North Carolina State. A rematch against North Carolina isn't out of the question but should be considered unlikely at best. 

Home for the Holidays | Chances: Definitely Possible

Another distinct possibility is that Tennessee will spend its first holidays since 2008 at home. 

No one in their right mind (or no one without those orange-colored shades) is picking Tennessee to beat Arkansas on November 12. That would become the Vols' sixth loss of the 2011 season, meaning Tennessee would have to win its final two games (vs. Vanderbilt, at Kentucky) to even become bowl eligible. 

While no one in their right mind (or no one without those black and gold-colored shades) would normally pick Vanderbilt over Tennessee in Neyland Stadium, the 2011 Commodores have played some pretty good football under new head coach James Franklin this season. 

Tennessee will likely be favored over Vandy, but losses to Arkansas and the SEC's perennial cellar-dwelling Commodores would end the Vols' season in November.