UFC on Fox 1: Bleacher Report MMA Staff Predictions

Dwight WakabayashiNov 11, 2011

The UFC on Fox is here and the two main event combatants are healthy, hungry and ready to let their skills fly to showcase the fastest growing sport in the world to a whole new set of viewers.

The event is unique not only in the outlet that it is being offered, but also in that the entire show will be produced around and present the heavyweight title fight. The heavyweight championship of the world is enough to carry the main show, but don't forget that Clay "The Carpenter" Guida and Ben Henderson will scrap in a fight to determine who will get the next shot at Frankie Edgar's title.

Along with the two crazy clashes mentioned there are three more fights on the card to keep a close eye on as the loser of these fights all may find themselves in the unemployment line of fighters when the dust settles on this historic event.

Welterweight TUF 9 runner up DaMarquez Johnson tries to hang on to his job against fellow bubble fighter Clay Harvison, and the card is rounded out by two featherweight bouts with Cub Swanson vs. Ricardo Lamas and Dustin Poirier vs Pablo Garza.

Here is a fight to fight breakdown from the Bleacher Report MMA Staff Prediction team of John Heinis, Jordy McElroy, Dale De Souza and myself.

Dustin Poirier vs. Pablo Garza

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Dwight Wakabayashi

Featherweight Dustin Poirier is coming off a razor thin victory over Jason Young at UFC 131 in Vancouver where his takedowns ended up being the difference. He is 2-0 in the UFC since coming over in the WEC merger.

Pablo Garza is also 2-0 in the UF and is coming off a stunning and slick flying arm-triangle submission win over Yves Jabouin in April.

Both these men are making a slow climb in the division and the winner here could get a fight with a UFC top ten in their next one. Look for the wrestling of Poirier to again be the difference and Garza will not pull out the submission in this one.

Poirier unanimous decision

John Heinis

Garza's last win at UFC 129 was breathtaking, hitting a flying triangle that had Yves Jabouin tapping out late in the first round.

"The Scarecrow" is only a blue belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, but he still has won seven of his professional victories by way of submission.

He has shown to have some pretty decent ground and pound as well, so this guy is definitely no slouch on the mat.

However, Poirier matches up well with him, having eight finishes in 10 career wins. Not only does "The Diamond" have the heavier hands (5 KO wins), he also is a purple belt in BJJ.

With that said, I can't see Garza winning unless he pulls another rabbit out of a hat (flying omoplate anyone?).

Poirier via unanimous decision (30-27)

Jordy McElroy

Dustin Poirier continues his march up the featherweight ladder, but a tall task awaits him in “Ultimate Fighter” Season 12 alumni Pablo Garza.

Poirier is incredibly well-rounded at 145-pounds. He is great at finding his range and utilizing kicks and takedowns in the open. Despite his solid wrestling skills, Poirier probably won’t be looking to take this fight to the ground.

Garza is a slick Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu artist, who has racked up seven submission wins. His height and reach could also be a problem for Poirier.

Garza walks around slightly over six feet, which is incredibly tall for featherweight. His lanky frame could help him or possibly even hurt him against Poirier.

With Poirier’s striking, Garza makes for a big target to work leg kicks at a distance.

Expect Poirier to frustrate Garza on the outside with strikes and bait him into getting overzealous. Poirier will hurt Garza in the exchanges and follow up with a barrage of punches and knees to seal “Scarecrow’s” fate.

(Dustin Poirier by Round 2 TKO)

Dale De Souza

If you had talked about this fight on December 31^st, 2010, and if you said that both guys would be

coming off of amazing wins over iron-willed competition in order to face each other, someone would tell you that you were full of s—t.

Everyone said that he had a 5-year-old kid’s chance against a Sumo wrestler when he fought Josh Grispi in UFC 125, and Poirier just made Grispi look like he didn’t know how to fight; add on the unanimous decision over Jason “Shotgun” Young at UFC 131, and it’s safe to say the kid’s stock is rising now.

Pablo Garza is another man with a fast-rising stock, as he knocked out Fredson Paixao with one freakish flying knee and then followed it up by submitting Yves Jabouin with a beautifully-executed flying triangle choke.

I’m not certain if I’d bet on another flying attack, but if Garza is as crazy as I think he is, he definitely could pull off something absolutely wicked…and this fight has me thinking that he could pull out something crazy if he does win.

Anticipate plenty of exchanges, although nothing that will make this a Fight of The Year contender, and watch for the 6-foot-1 Garza to use his height and reach to his edge as well, but if Poirier goes for a takedown…

…Have a guess where this one is going in my twisted mind.

Winner: Garza by 1^st round Submission (Flying Gogoplata)

Cub Swanson vs Ricardo Lamas

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Dwight Wakabayashi

Cub Swanson is a very solid, veteran fighter who has fought the best men in his weight class through out his career although never in the UFC. He is a WEC holdover and has lost to the likes of Chad Mendes, Jose Aldo and Jens Pulver and will be looking to debut with a bang against Ricardo Lamas.

Lamas himself is in his second bout and he took out Matt Grice in his debut in June. He scored a TKO in the first round with a nice head kick and punches.

Lamas has the advantage in youth and wrestling, and because of that, I see him taking this fight.

Lamas via unanimous decision

John Heinis

Everyone best remembers Swanson for getting TKO'ed by a Jose Aldo double flying knee at WEC 41.

There's nothing wrong with losing to "Scarface", but eight seconds? C'mon man!

Swanson was also decisively controlled en route to a loss against Chad Mendes at WEC 50, so it seems safe to say that 28-year-old is never going to be elite.

While his record is 15-4 with 11 finishes, Swanson is yet to beat anyone with a name.

I don't know if I'd really consider Lamas a name, like Mendes, he had an very successful college wrestling career.

Granted, Lamas graduated from Elmhurst College, which is a DIII school, but he still had over 100 wins and has shown great takedowns and top control in his MMA career.

While Swanson has decent BJJ skills, Lamas is a brown belt and a way better wrestler, so I think he can grind out the decision here.

Ricardo Lamas via unanimous decision (29-28)

Jordy McElroy

Cub Swanson is set to make his UFC debut against grappling ace Ricardo Lamas.

In this grappler versus striker match-up, Lamas has the advantage as long as he sticks to his base. He needs to stay persistent with his takedowns and make this a grinding effort.

Swanson is a strong striker in both technique and power. Lamas doesn’t have the chops or the chin to go toe-to-toe with Swanson on the feet for elongated periods of time.

He needs to use his striking to close the distance and rack up takedowns. From top, he should prioritize positioning over risky submission attempts, which could end in him being swept or ending back up on the feet.

Swanson has the power to land the fight-ending haymaker, but it’s hard not to like the superior grappler in this bout. Look for Lamas to control and outwork Swanson for a unanimous decision.

(Ricardo Lamas by Unanimous Decision)

Dale De Souza

It’s been awhile since any of us have seen Cub Swanson in the cage, but if you haven’t seen him before, you’re in for a treat.

Swanson is one of those fighters that will throw everything he has at any opponent in order to win the fight, and those who haven’t seen him since Jose Aldo knocked him out need not be fooled, as this guy can bring it to just about anyone and hold his own pretty well.

Ricardo “The Bully” Lamas, much like Swanson, is an exciting fighter with Top-10 potential but few names to show for a case to crack the actual Top 10 right now; nevertheless, Lamas has shown us a quick learning curve, as well as excellent cardio and some very vicious striking.

Not totally unlike Swanson, Lamas’ two losses also came against credible fighters, with a Lightweight loss to Danny “Last Call” Castillo and a Featherweight loss to electric Brazilian prospect Yuri Alcantara, so Lamas can definitely say he knows what it is like to get knocked down and to have to get back up.

I would expect this to be a fast paced battle between two fighters who have the gas tanks needed to do what they have to in order to win while also putting the show before the win in front of a raucous crowd of Californians, but Swanson has been out for a little longer than preferred, and the end result could always be a win due to being a touch more active than Lamas, but against a guy that fights at Lamas’ pace, I’d actually count Swanson lucky if he could make it a close one from bell to bell.

Then again, it’s Cub Swanson—he has ways of proving people wrong.

Winner: Ricardo Lamas by Unanimous decision (29-28x2, 29-27; don’t be surprised if a judge gives Lamas all three rounds)

DaMarques Johnson vs. Clay Harvison

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Dwight Wakabayashi

DaMarques Johnson is a TUF Season 9 runner up who is runnu=ing out of time to establish himself in the top league in the world. He is 3-3 in his UFC career and is coming off a sound loss at the hands of Amir Sadollah

Harvison is another TUF alum who cannot afford to lose this fight or he may risk his place in the promotion. Harvison brings a solid striking game with him to the cage and I'm sure he will look to keep this one on the feet all night.

Harvison via unanimous decision

John Heinis

Johnson, the runner-up on season nine of The Ultimate Fighter, has been totally average in his UFC career, going 3-3.

After getting soundly defeated by Amir Sadollah at UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs. Davis is March, it's hard to defend this guy for much longer.

However, he did make a fellow professional fighter tap with a body triangle (Mike Guymon at UFC: Fight for the Troops 2), so he deserves some credit for that.

That's about it though.

Harvison, another TUF alum, while not the most impressive welterweight in the world, he is a heavy handed kickboxer who sports 9-3 record, including eight finishes.

"Heavy Metal" is actually a pretty good kickboxer with an adequate submission game, so I think that's more than it takes for him to take out Johnson at this point in his career.

Clay Harvison via 1st round KO

Dale De Souza

DaMarques Johnson may have looked like a “what is he doing here?” story to some when he fought James Wilks at The Ultimate Fighter 9 Finale, but since then, few have had many bad things to say about him—even despite losing to Wilks, Matt Riddle and TUF 7 winner Amir Sadollah, wins over Edgar Garcia, Brad Blackburn and Mike Guymon have kept him somewhat on the rise.

Clay Harvision, of TUF 13 fame, ought to know plenty about that, because despite a loss to Seth Baczynski at UFC Fight Night 25, some argue that Harvison is another hungry TUF product possibly on the rise.

Interesting of note is that both TUF products are pretty well-rounded fighters with finishing abilities and good striking for the level that they are at right now, but they aren’t like the Rory MacDonald-types that are seen as future UFC Welterweight Champions—they still have a long way to go before they are going to be top-tier or close to it.

The key here might be experience, and it’s a tough call to make, but the best bet to make would be on Johnson either outpointing Harvison on the feet and capitalizing on his opportunity to finish from a better position, or using his limbs (and the two inches of reach he’ll have on Harvison) to keep Harvison frustrated before getting him down and submitting him.

Either way, count on Johnson getting back to his winning ways in Anaheim.

Winner: Johnson by 2^nd round TKO Stoppage (Strikes)

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Clay Guida vs Ben Henderson

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Dwight Wakabayashi

This is a much anticipated fight to see who gets a shot at champion Frankie Edgar and I see no turning back once these two get locked in the cage on Saturday night. They both love to fight at a lighting fast pace and Guida knows it may be know or never in his quest to be a champion.

Henderson is on a large rise and he will have to use his elusive, rubbery skills to squeeze out and get away from Guida's reach and grip all night.

it's pretty simple, if GUida can take and keep Henderson down under his top control, that he will win this fight. Henderson will win in striking, submission attepts and effective activity all night but he will lose this fight in typical Guida form if he can't get the relentless Carpenter off of him.

I saw Guida stifling Anthony Pettis' flashy attack in their fight earlier this year, and i see th esame thing happening in this one

Guida via split decision

John Heinis

I really think this one has fight of the year potential written all over it. Guida and Henderson are both great wrestlers with solid submission capabilities and they both don't mind to stand and trade.

Couple that in with the fact that these guys seemingly never gas out and we've got the makings of a spectacular fight.

If the fight stays standing, Henderson certainly has the advantage, but he may his trouble with a tough as nails brawler like Guida. Guida can hit hard and his chin is made of titanium, so don't count him out of a stand up war with anyone in the division.

Takedowns will likely be tough to come by in this one, but if it does hit the ground, I really don't know what to think.

Guida has been submitted by rear naked choke numerous times, and while Henderson's BJJ is excellent, he is more of a top player so I don't know how well he can work off his back.

Really tough call, I am going to go with Henderson, but I have no problem saying that I'm a big Guida fan and I'll be rooting for him heavily here.

Ben Henderson via split decision (29-28 x 2)

Jordy McElroy

Former WEC lightweight champion Ben Henderson versus Clay Guida is a dream fight for most fans, and it’s a shame that it won’t be seeing any main card action.

This bout should make most Ritalin-depraved toddlers seem calm.

Henderson finally getting the respect he deserves as a world class lightweight after his brilliant performance against Jim Miller at UFC on Versus 5.

Meanwhile, Guida has racked up four straight wins over tough opposition in former WEC champion Anthony Pettis, Clay Guida, Rafael Dos Anjos and Shannon Gugerty.

This is a fairly even match-up on the feet. Neither fighter has ever really shown strong striking. This is fight will be won or lost by wrestling and top control.

Guida is a world class grappler with an infinite gas tank, but he tends to struggle against fellow grapplers with a similar résumé.

Henderson is one of the best wrestlers in the entire lightweight division, and he has shutdown top control and incredible Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu skills to go along with it.

Guida’s massive heart and persistent pace will keep things interesting, and fans shouldn’t be shocked if this bout trumps the main event for fight of the night.

Look for Henderson to put in another workmanlike performance with takedowns and top control en route to a unanimous decision.

(Ben Henderson by Unanimous Decision)

Dale De Souza

Pretty funny how Clay Guida’s last fight was against the man who beat Ben Henderson for the WEC Lightweight Title, and now Guida gets the last man to lose a WEC-sanctioned bout to Anthony Pettis in the form of Henderson himself.

If you’re banking on this one hitting the ground quick, you’re likely to walk home as one rich son of a…you know.

Anyways, with Guida, we’re talking about an aggressive Energizer-bunny-type wrestler who likes to constantly attack his foes, especially when he takes them down and works his top game on them, and also likes to attack the neck whenever he looks for the tap.

Of course, being a Greg Jackson boy, Guida is improving that facet of his game to where he can lock up any body part to force a tap, but the mere notion of Guida locking Henderson up in a submission is scary for the opposite reason of what one might think.

See, “The Smooth One” is not only an Arizona-bred warrior with crushing submission power, but he’s been locked up in so many near-finishing submissions that it’s really not that funny to mention.

Had anyone else been locked in the holds which Donald Cerrone trapped Henderson during their legendary first fight, Cerrone would have gotten an easy technical submission or a quick tap, and the same theory easily goes for the submissions Jim Miller attempted.

That Henderson looked like someone was holding up the line at Starbucks while he was getting some pre-training-camp coffee while being trapped in holds that would have forced a tap from any other fighter should tell you why Guida’s toughest challenge to date has arrived in the form of Henderson.

I’d like to think that, given Guida’s track record against guys with strong submission skills, we’d be in for a submission victory in the event of a Henderson victory, but Guida is scary-tough for anyone at 155, and Henderson might find that out very swiftly when he and Guida partake in the bout that might just be the best Lightweight-level display of MMA’s fundamental aspects circa 2011.

Winner by Split Decision: Ben Henderson (29-28, 30-27, 30-27—the rounds will be close though)

Cain Velasquez vs Junior Dos Santos

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Dwight Wakabayashi

This is a true fight between the number one and number two best heavyweight fighters in the world and an extremely difficult fight to call.

Cain is the most well rounded heavyweight out there and has proven he can hang on the feet or the ground against the best in the world, however, he does not want to stand up with Junior Dos Santos.

The question becomes, will Cain be able to wrestle and take JDS down to where he can surely dominate with his ground and pound game.

Junior Dos santos is one of, if not the best boxer in mixed martial arts today. His speed, power and footwork are unmatched and if he can avoid the takedown that Velasquez will be so relentless with, he will pick the champ apart and box his way to victory.

I see Cain getting a few takedowns in this fight, but i don't think he will be able to keep it there, and the mojority of the fight will take place on the feet.

Junior Dos Santos via unanimous decision

John Heinis

This showdown between two of the most well-rounded heavyweights in the sport has been heavily anticipated ever since JDS battered Shane Carwin for three rounds at UFC 131.

"Cigano" is currently riding an eight-fight win streak, including six knockouts.

While it looked like dos Santos was "just" a great boxer, he showcased great takedown defense against a NCCA Division II Hall of Fame wrestler in Shane Carwin.

Obviously there is a big difference between DI and DII sports, but Carwin is not slouch in the wrestling department as far as MMA is concerned.

Let's not act like Cain Velasquez is just some guy though: en route to his 9-0 professional record, he has finished eight of his opponents.

Velasquez's biggest claim to fame thus far is simply embarassing then-champ Brock Lesnar at UFC 121. What a way to end "Brocktober" as SPIKE called it.

Keep in mind though, the former Arizona State Sun Devil has not fought since then due to rotator cuff surgery, so a big question is will he be as explosive as he was before the injury?

For the most part, I think he will be, but I say dos Santos is the better striker and his grappling game is good enough for him to keep the fight standing long enough for him to do some serious damage.

Nothing would surprise me here, but I'm going to say JDS is crowned the new champion.

Junior dos Santos via 3rd round TKO

Jordy McElroy

The battle for heavyweight supremacy begins in this epic heavyweight championship clash between Cain Velasquez and Junior Dos Santos.

While some may disagree, this is the best heavyweight title match-up in UFC history.

Both Velasquez and Dos Santos represent a well-rounded breed of heavyweight. While Velasquez wears opponents down with his improved boxing and otherworldly wrestling, Dos Santos’ jarring power and underrated Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu tends to lead to more violent endings.

With that said, Velasquez’s wrestling and persistent pace makes him a nightmare match-up for any heavyweight. Despite being a heavyweight, he fights like a lightweight. His coaches have even credited him for outworking lightweights in the gym.

Can Dos Santos stop Velasquez’s takedowns?

The answer to this question could provide the outcome of the fight. Velasquez’s takedowns are leagues beyond anything Dos Santos has ever seen, and while “Cigano” is a brown belt in BJJ, we have never really seen him forced to fend from his back.

Unless Dos Santos stops Velasquez early, he could be in for a long night. You can shrug off takedowns for so long, but Velasquez won’t stop working.

This bout will live up to the bill and provide the UFC with a great showing in its Fox debut. Look for an epic heavyweight clash filled with drama.

Dos Santos will hurt Velasquez early and have him on the ropes, but the champion’s wrestling and everlasting pace will be the story of the night, as he turns the tide with takedowns and ground-and-pound in a unanimous decision.

(Cain Velasquez by Unanimous Decision)

Dale De Souza

I really don’t want to pick a winner in this one, being a fan of both guys and all, but I will try anyway.

Both Cain Velasquez and Junior Dos Santos have some heavy hands and strong takedown defense, and if you’re going by ESPN Red Ink stats, you can see the similarities in their takedown defense percentages.

Of course, the ESPN stats also say that Cain’s made short work of his opposition in a shorter average time than his challenger, and has a higher striking accuracy than the challenger, but paper stats are cheap, even if they come from ESPN.

On fight night, both men are going to want to come out to play the hardest game they’ve ever played, and you guys can count me as one of the few that thinks that, after much thought and careful consideration, this one will go the distance.

If Cain’s wrestling does show, it will not take its hold for the full 25 minutes, as Dos Santos is likely to prove to be one that cannot be held down; Cain may have to stand with Dos Santos and use his striking arsenal to get the job done at home as he did against Brock Lesnar, but again, this one will go the distance.

Originally, I had thought Dos Santos would finish Cain in the 3^rd round, but Dos Santos ‘s hands have been through battles against Roy Nelson’s iron belly and Shane Carwin’s titanium cranium, and Dos Santos might therefore have a difficult time shattering the jaw of the champion.

This one will be close, and I personally hope for a Split Draw or a Majority Draw in a classic Heavyweight title fight, but if Cain’s cage rust shows itself as I horrifically fear it might, it’s possible that we see Junior Dos Santos strike a perfect “two-for-the-price-of-one” deal.

In other words, should Cain seem rusty somewhat, Junior could take Cain’s “0” and the UFC Heavyweight title—along with the honor of facing either Brock Lesnar or Alistair Overeem in 2012—while making the champ pay the price for thinking he ever had a shot to prove why he was the champ.

Just the same, though, Cain will make damn sure that Dos Santos fights his ass off and then some to prove to the whole world that he was even worthy of the title shot from the get-go.

Winner by Majority Decision: Junior Dos Santos (48-46x2, 48-48)