College Football Predictions: BCS Bowl Projections and Predictions

The BCS bowl season is one of the most exciting times in collegiate athletics.

The prestigious games that comprise these bowls (the Rose Bowl, the Sugar Bowl, the Orange Bowl, the Fiesta Bowl and the BCS National Championship) select 10 of the best teams in the nation to compete against one another in what should be considered the best games of the season.

Many college football programs hope to be a part of it, but only a select few will. But for those who do make it to these games, the experience is like none other.

Whether it is a perennial powerhouse laying claim to their conference title for an automatic qualifying bid or a surprising team from a mid-major conference, teams that reach the BCS bowl season should feel honored to participate in one of the most prestigious postseason events in all of sports.

If you are unfamiliar with the selection process when it comes to BCS games, this list will help to clarify (or at least hope to clarify—it is a fairly complicated process) the selection process and then will go on to project and predict the entire 2011 BCS bowl season.

Autmomatic Qualifiers

The top two teams in the regular-season BCS poll at the end of the season will play each other in the BCS National Championship game. The BCS rankings are comprised of the USA Today Coaches' Poll, the Harris Poll and the computer polls.

There are six conferences whose champions automatically qualify for a BCS bowl game, and these conference champions are:

Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC): Conference champion plays in the Orange Bowl.

Big 12 Conference: Conference champion plays in the Fiesta Bowl.

Big East Conference: Conference champion is placed in a BCS bowl, but is not obligated to a specific one.

Big Ten Conference: Conference champion plays in the Rose Bowl.

Pacific 12 Conference (Pac-12): Conference Champion plays in the Rose Bowl.

Southeastern Conference (SEC): Conference Champion plays in the Sugar Bowl.

It is important to note that if any conference champion from these conferences is in the BCS National Championship, they will be replaced by an at-large selection (to be explained later).

The other automatic qualifiers for BCS bowl games are one of the champions of the five other conferences (known as the mid-major conferences because they do not receive an automatic bid to a BCS bowl game).

One of the mid-major teams will automatically qualify if they win their respective conference's championship and are ranked in the Top 12 in the final BCS poll at the end of the regular season, or if they are ranked in the Top 16 and are ranked higher than a conference champion from a conference with an automatic bid.

It is important to note that only the highest-ranked team from one of the mid-major conferences will be eligible for an automatic bid to a BCS game, while the others will be left for the at-large selection process.

What this means is that even if two mid-major teams that won their respective conference championships are ranked inside of the Top 12 of the final BCS poll, only the higher-ranked of these two teams will receive an automatic bid to a BCS bowl game.

Notre Dame is guaranteed an appearance in a BCS bowl game if it finishes n the Top Eight of the final BCS poll at the end of the regular season.

At-Large Bids/Selections

If the BCS is unable to fill all positions in the BCS bowl games by means of automatic qualifiers, the next round goes to the at-large bids—a selection process by which the bowls will get to choose the teams (for the most part) that will make an appearance in their games.

A team qualifies for an at-large bid if they have won at least nine regular-season games and have finished in the Top 14 in the final BCS standings at the end of the regular season.

There cannot be more than two teams from any conference selected to play in a BCS bowl game.

If the BCS bowl games are unable to be filled after expanding to the at-large process by selecting qualifiers within the Top 14, the at-large selection will be expanded to the Top 18 teams who have won nine games and are bowl eligible in the FBS.

BCS Bowl Games (Rose, Sugar, Fiesta, Orange, National Championship)

Rose Bowl (January 2, 2012; Pasadena, California)

Pac-12 Champion vs. Big Ten Champion

If the champion of these conferences is in the national championship game, they will be replaced by a team with an at-large bid.

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl (January 2, 2012; Glendale, Arizona)

Big 12 Champion vs. At-large selection/Big East Champion

If the Big 12 Champion is in the national championship game, then they will be replaced by a team with an at-large bid.

Allstate Sugar Bowl (January 3, 2012; New Orleans, Louisiana)

SEC Champion vs. At-large selection/Big East Champion

If the SEC Champion is in the national championship game, they will be replaced by a team with an at-large bid.

Discover Orange Bowl (January 4, 2012; Miami, Florida)

ACC Champion vs. At-large selection/Big East Champion 

If the ACC Champion is in the national championship game, they will be replaced by a team with an at-large bid.

BCS National Championship (January 9, 2012; New Orleans, Louisiana)

BCS No. 1 vs. BCS No. 2

This year, the BCS National Championship will be played at the same site as the Allstate Sugar Bowl and will rotate to the Discover Orange Bowl in Miami during the 2012-2013 season.

Now that you hopefully have a better understanding of the selection process, here are the projections and predictions for the 2011 BCS bowl season.

Rose Bowl, Presented by Vizio (January 2, 2012): Michigan State vs. Boise State

Last year, Michigan State just missed out on a shot to make an appearance in the Rose Bowl, and will make up for it by wining the Big Ten Championship and making an appearance this year.

Led by Kirk Cousins, Michigan State is leading the Legends Division of the conference with their toughest games behind them. They currently sit at 7-2 overall with a 4-1 record inside of the conference, one of the two teams to have only one loss in conference in the Big Ten.

Their only loss in conference came to a Nebraska team that has already lost two games in conference, thus, still giving Michigan State the edge in the division. With winnable games against Iowa, Indiana and Northwestern left on the schedule, Michigan State will play for the inaugural Big Ten Championship game and ultimately make an appearance in the Rose Bowl after winning that contest.

Though I believe Boise State will finish the season undefeated, the curse of the smurf still lives with them, as they just don't play a tough enough schedule to play for the BCS National Championship, even with the teams ahead of them having one loss.

Though disappointed to not be playing for a national championship, don't expect Boise State to let off the gas pedal, as QB Kellen Moore will be looking to make a memorable end to his prolific collegiate career.

Prediction:

Boise State 27, Michigan State 21

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl (January 2, 2012): Oklahoma Sooners vs. Stanford Cardinal

In what is sure to be one of the more exciting matchups of the BCS bowl season, the Oklahoma Sooners will face off against Heisman front-runner Andrew Luck and the Stanford Cardinal.

While many believe Oklahoma should challenge for the national championship should they beat Oklahoma State in a huge game in the Big 12, they lost to an unranked Texas Tech team, and many people do not seem to give any consideration to that.

I mean, c'mon, just think about it: Texas Tech dominated that game, and it was in Norman.

The Sooners are just not national championship material this year, and that was brought to fruition by their game against Texas Tech. An elite team that deserves to play in the BCS National Championship does not lose to an unranked Texas Tech team that has not been blown out in their past two contests.

The Stanford Cardinal, on the other hand, are an elite program that I believe will finish the season with one loss, but remain ranked within the top eight teams in the nation. They will make an appearance in the Sugar Bowl because of a situation that will be explained further on in this slideshow (props to those of you who already know what the situation is). 

Landry Jones vs. Andrew Luck will be another game that places two of the best quarterbacks in the nation against one another, and this game will definitely be thrilling to watch.

Although both teams do have stout defenses, I have to give the edge to Stanford in this one, as Oklahoma has looked vulnerable to a decent passing attack at times, something Andrew Luck brings to the Cardinal.

Prediction:

Stanford 24, Oklahoma 17

Allstate Sugar Bowl (January 3, 2012): Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Oklahoma State

This is going to be another one of the games that should cause people to salivate just thinking about it.

One of the best offenses in the nation (Oklahoma State) against one of the top defenses in the nation (Alabama) will definitely be exciting to watch.

Can Alabama keep up with Oklahoma State's high-powered offense? Could Oklahoma State actually get anything going against the Crimson Tide? And, if they do, can they keep the Crimson Tide out of the end zone as well?

I believe this game will occur, because while Alabama is very good and many are calling for a rematch with LSU in the National Championship game, a team that does not win its conference does not deserve to be in the BCS National Championship game—that just should not happen.

I also believe that Oklahoma State will fall to Oklahoma but remain in the Top Eight in the nation, thus resulting in an appearance in the Sugar Bowl against the Crimson Tide.

Although both of their fanbases will be disappointed in the fact that they did not reach the BCS National Championship, the winner of this game will definitely be considered as at least the second best team in the nation and will be an exciting contest to watch.

While Oklahoma State has a great offense, Alabama's defense is just too good. They will be able to stop Oklahoma State on a few drives and also be able to put up points against a weak Oklahoma State defense in a game that will feature quite a few points on the board.

Prediction:

Alabama 37, Oklahoma State 31

Discover Orange Bowl (January 4, 2012): Clemson Tigers vs. Cincinnati Bearcats

Cincinnati is the best team in the Big East, and that is definitely not saying much. Although they do have a game against West Virginia that they could potentially lose, they would still only have one loss in the conference and will still be the front-runners for the Big East title.

Contrary to Cincinnati, Clemson was once a national-title contender after a surprising start to their season, but eventually youth got the best of them as their national championship dreams were dashed against Georgia Tech.

Despite this loss, expect Clemson to win the ACC Championship en route to an appearance against the Cincinnati Bearcats in the Orange Bowl, where they will demonstrate just how potent both their offense and defense is against a weak team from the Big East—which will no doubt prove just how embarrassing it is that the Big East receives an automatic bid to a BCS bowl game.

Prediction:

Clemson 35, Cincinnati 10

BCS National Championship (January 9, 2012): Oregon Ducks vs. LSU Tigers

Like many have been predicting as of late, there will be a rematch in the National Championship game—it just won't be the one that anybody expects.

After beating Oregon 40-27 in what was one of the most hyped games of the season, LSU will once again have to face an Oregon Duck team that has, since their opening loss, done nothing but quietly assert why they should be national-championship contenders despite their loss to LSU. 

Since losing to LSU, Oregon seems to have been cast aside. However, after a win against Stanford, the Ducks will become nationally relevant again and will continue to win games en route to a 12-1 record that will include a Pac-12 Championship for the third year in a row and a berth to the BCS National Championship.

For those of you screaming at the words appearing before you right now, think about it: Oregon has put up the most points against LSU, and had it not been for three dumb turnovers (two committed by a true freshmen playing in his first game as a replacement for injured starters), the Ducks would be the No. 1 team in the nation.

With more experience both on the offensive side of the ball and with a defense that is making great strides, expect the Ducks to assert their case for the national championship and eventually make it back-to-back appearances in the most prestigious game in college football.

LSU has done nothing but impress this season, both on the offensive and defensive side of the ball, and will no doubt be crowned SEC champions come the end of the year.

And though LSU is one of the best teams in the nation, the underrated Oregon Ducks have figured out too much and put too many players in key places to falter twice to LSU in one season.

Their freshmen have grown up faster than expected, and they have even more playmakers now than they did at the start of the season. In one of the most anticipated rematches of college football history, expect the Ducks to shock the nation and prove why the deserve to be ranked No. 1, and that their performance against LSU at the start of the season did not define them as a program.

Prediction:

Oregon 34, LSU 28