Pacquiao vs. Márquez 3: Why Marquez Has a Good Shot

The word on the boxing circuit is that Juan Manuel Márquez does not stand a chance against Manny Pacquiao.

In my opinion, Márquez has a genuine shot at causing an upset when proceedings get underway at the MGM Grand Sat. night.

The analysis leading up to the highly-anticipated third act of this trilogy has dissected both fighters—from their strengths to their respective weaknesses.

By now, most pugilist purists and even some casual fans are aware of what danger each fighter poses to the other.

That aside, Márquez and Pacquiao are both supremely confident and highly motivated going into this fight.

They’ll have two things on their mind when the bell rings—redemption and victory.

Overall, however, it seems that Pacquiao has the all-around arsenal to edge Márquez out of the fight.

Be that as it may, it would be a huge mistake to dismiss Márquez’ chances.

Here are the reasons why Márquez could upend Pacquiao.

3. Mayweather Distraction Could Help Márquez

Unbeknown to any of us, Money May’s pronouncement less than a fortnight before the bout might possibly have been a distraction to Pacquiao.

Nine days before Pacquiao's epic trilogy fight with Márquez, Money May's adviser Leonard Ellerbe told ESPN that a Mayweather vs. Pacquiao matchup was set for May 5.

Now, with a possible $60 million-plus a piece in the offing for both fighters, it's bound to turn anyone's head, even the Pac-Man's.

Pacquiao’s mindset could culminate in impetuous decisions—seeking to get the match over quickly, or aiming to ensure that this time the judges have no bearing on the eventual outcome.

If that is the case, Pacquiao could be susceptible to oncoming fire.  But no one is privy to that information except for Pacquiao and his camp.

Though, if Money’s behind-the-scenes antics have somehow impinged on Pacquiao’s state of mind, it could be the catalyst for Márquez upending Pacquiao.

A distracted Pacquiao is going to be far less dangerous and efficacious than a fully focused and primed Pacquiao.

2. Márquez Is Pacquiao’s Achilles Heel

Márquez and Pacquiao have fought twice—first back in 2004, which ended in a draw, and their second meeting, in 2008, which ended in a controversial split-decision win for Pacquiao.

On each occasion, Pacquiao had Márquez on the canvas, four times to be exact—three times in the first meeting and once in their last.

Nevertheless, in each instance, Pacquiao failed to finish off Marquez, and as a result, Márquez rallied back to give Pacquiao more than he could handle.

The Pacquiao going into their third fight is a new and improved Pacquiao who has also found a new weapon in his arsenal—his right-hook, which was nonexistent in their first two bouts.

Pacquiao has said that he’s now in tune with counter-punchers, but I doubt either of his recent acquisitions will make that much of a difference in their third encounter.

Whatever it is that Márquez possesses over Pacquiao, it’s his ability to negate the best that Pacquiao can bring that makes him the better fighter.

And I don’t see it panning out any differently in this fight either.

I expect Márquez to use Pacquiao’s inability to put him away (which Pacquiao will probably do from the outset) to his advantage, with the result being at least a decision win for Marquez.

1. Márquez Has a Puncher's Chance

In his career thus far, Márquez has knocked out 39 of his 53 opponents—one more KO than Pacquiao has.

Although, something to bear in mind is the fact that, in 59 career fights, Marquez has never once been stopped.

Sure, he’s been knocked to the canvas plenty of times, but on each occasion he’s risen to beat the count.

On the other hand, Pacquiao has been knocked out twice.

Even though he was still a novice teenage prize-fighter at the time, the fact remains that Pacquiao has suffered two KO losses in his career.

Now Pacquiao is a more mature pugilist than when he first came on to the scene back in early 1995.

Nonetheless, if you’ve been knocked out once, let alone twice, the chances are that history could repeat itself.

And that applies to Pacquiao as well.