NFL Betting: Football Handicapping Simplified by Fairway Jay

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I posted a blog last week regarding some of my NFL handicapping methodologies and specifically some of the rushing guidelines that I have posted in the past and incorporate into my successful strategies in NFL handicapping.

Down the stretch of this NFL season we’ve been able to ‘grind’ our way to big profits by getting out in front and proficiently projecting what teams will have success at the point-of-attack and running the ball. That applies to both sides of the line of scrimmage, as a strong run defense is proving again to be a positive indicator to success.

We’re on a 12-2 NFL run, and last weekend, we had the Saints and Panthers both cash as Game-of-the-Year winners. Interesting to note that the Saints out-rushed the Falcon’s 184-99 while the Panthers piled up a 299-86 rushing advantage in their domination at the line of scrimmage.

Those two rushing totals joined the Titans 235 yards as the three highest rushing outputs of the weekend. Many handicappers and bettors would have projected the Falcon’s No. 2 ypg running attack to out-rush the Saints.

But I noted in my analysis of the contest some key concepts and indicators suggesting otherwise. The Saints defense is a little underrated, and when healthy along the line they have performed quite well. New Orleans has actually held the leagues top running backs in check with each and every one of them failing to reach 100 yards rushing or their season average against the Saints.

Adrian Peterson (Vikings - 32), Michael Turner (Falcons, 2x – 96, 61), Clinton Portis (Redskins - 96) and DeAngelo Williams (Panthers - 66) represent the leagues top four rushers and all were slowed down by the Saints. Also, Matt Forte (Bears – 34), Ryan Grant (Packers – 67) and Larry Johnson (Chiefs – 67) were held under 100 yards rushing and below their season average.

Only LaDainian Tomlinson of the Chargers broke the century mark with 105 yards rushing in the game played in London.

I’ve previously discussed a teams point spread success if they out-rush an opponent by 30 yards in a contest. If you can project that kind of success in the running game, you’ll hit 75 percent of your NFL selections ATS over the long term.

Sure enough, with over 130 samples in the books this season, those rushing numbers and differential are hitting right at 75 percent again this season (74.4 percent exactly). Teams that run the ball for 175 yards or more in a contest cash at an 82 percent clip this season.

We cashed a solid wire-to-wire winner on the ‘loveable, laughable, losing’ Lions last week against the Vikings. Clearly that selection went against my noted rushing guidelines, as the Vikings were nearly certain to out-rush the Lions by margin based on match-ups and statistical indicators.

Minnesota did indeed out-rush the Lions 130-76, but the Lions prevailed ATS (can they win a game?) coming off a few extra days of rest and prep following their embarrassing loss on Thanksgiving.

The Lions solid effort was anticipated against their division opponent, but the execution again failed and kept Detroit winless. We’ve projected other situations for success this season when the point-of-attack match-ups and running games did not look too promising for our selections.

Cleveland (+9) over the NY Giants was an outright winner on the Browns and the St. Louis Rams (+8) over the Miami Dolphins went wire-to-wire ATS in a close SU loss.

It’s not always easy to project the solid rushing advantages, and even when you do analyze correctly and your projection plays out properly, the result does not necessarily translate despite a very solid 75 percent ATS success rate.

As you can see by those selections, I’m much more inclined to play a large underdog that seems to project poorly in the running game rather than a team in a very competitively priced contest that may have some injuries of note or not match-up as well.

So, while we incorporate projected rushing guidelines into our NFL handicapping methods we obviously must analyze other situational plays, match-ups, injuries and line value into our point spread prognosis.

At this time of year there are clearly teams that have ‘tossed the towel’ from an emotional standpoint as the playoffs are no longer in site. Still, there will be adjustments in the betting line to reflect some team’s poor performances and others in a playoff position with a ‘need’ to win.

Thus, one of the simplest NFL methods to point spread success is to just select the team that is going to win the game in a competitively priced contest (6 points or less). I track this information also, and in long term NFL action teams that win the game straight-up (SU) in competitively priced games win the money approx. 82 percent of the time.

This season however, those SU winners are cashing at just over a 90 percent success rate! Last week, games priced at 6-points or less saw the SU winner go 7-0 ATS. Check it out. Texans (+6) over Packers. Ravens (-6) over Redskins. Saints (-3) over Falcons. SF 49ers (+4) over NY Jets. Dolphins (+1) over Bills. Steelers (-3.5) over Cowboys. Panthers (-3) over Buccaneers.

Note that the Bears were a 6.5 favorite over the Jaguars and the Eagles were a 6.5 underdog to the NY Giants at the closing numbers in their victories. There are a handful of games through the course of the season where the line moves between the numbers six and seven, and even note that the Patriots opened 4.5 against Seattle last week and closed as a 7-point favorite in some places.

We didn’t use that game in the sample, and there are others during the course of the season where we have to make a judgement on available numbers Saturday and Sunday at closing.

We know that selecting SU winners in the NFL is pretty tough, and in competitively priced games it’s more difficult. However, if you just simplify some of your handicapping methods and thoughts and focus on who might win these competitively priced games SU, you may find yourself cashing more tickets. If you’re having difficulty with projecting these winners or don’t have the time, energy or proficiency to evaluate the games, match-ups and statistics, perhaps a proven professional can help. I’m here to carry your ‘bag’ and hit the big ‘shots’ in your pursuit of the ‘green’.