NFL Picks Week 10: Predicting Teams That Will Narrowly Escape with Wins

Regardless of whether you win big or by the skin of your teeth, all that matters is getting the W. That said, the 2011 NFL season has had quite a few barn-burners thus far, and Week 10 is no exception.

So, with nail-biting in mind, here are three games that will come down to the wire.

Indianapolis Colts (vs. Jacksonville)

The Jaguars may have a decent defense and ground game, but all the Colts have to do is isolate RB Maurice Jones-Drew from taking over the game.

If they stop MJD and force rookie QB Blaine Gabbert to beat them, the odds of Indy getting win No. 1 significantly increase. Also, the Colts still have a respectable pass rush despite all their injuries.

So, as long as they can shut down MJD, get some pressure and not turn the ball over offensively, the Colts are very capable of winning this game. Indy has shown before that it can play with some of the better teams, but it's come up short.

Jacksonville is not one of those teams, and this is not one of those games.

Colts 16, Jaguars 10 

Chicago Bears (vs. Detroit)

When they first met in Detroit, the Bears gave the Lions everything they had. The Lions at the time, however, were simply on a hot streak and were finding multiple ways to win.

Fast-forward to the now, and we see a much more level playing field.

Chicago is rolling with confidence after three straight wins, and its defense is playing vehemently better. As for the Lions, they still continue to struggle in the trenches, so expect Bears RB Matt Forte to be the game's showcase.

Forte is the key to Mike Martz's offense. However, he has yet to really be completely shut down this season, whereas the Lions have yet to prove they can stop the run (allowing almost 140 rush yards per game). 

So, anticipate Forte controlling the game himself and keeping the Lions offense off the field for much of the time. In turn, Detroit suffers from being one-dimensional on offense against a much improved Lovie Smith defense.

Bears 17, Lions 13

Denver Broncos (at Kansas City)

Despite winning four straight games, the Kansas City Chiefs have had two of their four losses at home. For some reason, Arrowhead Stadium has become an easier place to win games, otherwise Miami wouldn't have dominated last week.

Well, invading this week are the Denver Broncos, who are somehow just one game behind everyone else in the AFC West. Last week, the Broncos got a major divisional win on the road in Oakland, and they expect to do the same in Week 10.

Kansas City may have turned things around, but the Chiefs struggle defensively as well as in passing offense. Denver, on the other hand, has not only improved defensively but has a Top-10 rush offense and is arguably better than K.C. at special teams thanks to return man Eddie Royal.

It's another low-scoring affair in Kansas City, but the Broncos get another divisional road win thanks to a solid pass rush.

Broncos 9, Chiefs 7

Be sure to check out John on Bleacher Report. 

You can follow him on Twitter @ Sportswriter27.