NFL Week 10 Picks for Every Game Against the Spread

Last week: 6-8.  Season totals: 69-56-5, Pct. .550.  Bets Bets: 15-11-1, Pct. .574.

Home team in capital letters; point spreads (opening line) in parentheses after underdog team; selections with point spreads in bold.

THURSDAY NIGHT

SAN DIEGO 27, Oakland 24 (+7)—Not only have the Raiders covered four straight against the Chargers, but they're also 21-11 against the line in road games on natural grass since 2006, compared with 2-9 on artificial turf over the same period.  And the Chargers simply aren't trustworthy laying any kind of wood at present.

SUNDAY

N.Y. Giants 20 (+3 1/2), SAN FRANCISCO 13—The Giants have done a terrific job weathering their early-season injury storm on defense, while the 49ers, despite their 7-1 record, have been barely more than adequate on offense. Inclined to take Eli Manning over Alex Smith at quarterback, and a good big man (Brandon Jacobs, as Ahmad Bradshaw remains doubtful) over a good little man (Frank Gore) at running back.

Tennessee 24 (+3 1/2), CAROLINA 16—This game, and the line on it, brings to mind the iconic imagery of the spoiled brat in the back seat of the car repeatedly asking "Are we there yet?" Well the Panthers aren't there yet—and have no business being field-goal-plus favorites over a team that's two games ahead of them.

ATLANTA 27 (+1), New Orleans 20—The Falcons finally seem to have gotten past their hangover from last January, and home teams are 5-0 against the spread in NFC South games this year.  The wrong team would appear to be favored here, too.

Houston 23, TAMPA BAY 14 (+3 1/2)—Arian Foster is extremely similar to Matt Forte, who three weeks ago in London ran all over a Bucs defense which has since lost defensive tackle Gerald McCoy to a season-ending injury. With the cat (the Colts) now away in the AFC South, the Texans have clearly emerged as the best of the mice that play.

Washington 16 (+4), MIAMI 13—See what one victory can do?  All of a sudden the Dolphins are a powerhouse, favored by more than a field goal over a team they trail by two games in the standings. I don't buy that stuff.  The Redskins aren't good, but they're better than Miami.

CLEVELAND 17, St. Louis 6 (+1)—It certainly seems as if Peyton Hillis, the latest victim of the storied Madden Curse, has worn out his welcome in Cleveland. But one's money is never welcome on the Rams in cold weather, where they're 3-9 against the spread in their last dozen games.

CINCINNATI 20 (+3), Pittsburgh 16—As soon as the schedules came out, you knew that this was going to be Cincinnati's year.  As soon as the final gun sounded at the Super Bowl last February, you knew that this was not going to be Pittsburgh's year.  Andy Dalton is showing the poise of a ten-year veteran. 

Jacksonville 23, INDIANAPOLIS 6 (+3)—While no one expected the Colts to be able to carry on as if nothing happened when Peyton Manning went down, what we are seeing out of them is complete and total gutlessness. I wouldn't trust them to stay within a field goal of Florida Atlantic right now. 

Denver 27 (+3 1/2), KANSAS CITY 21—Yup, Tim Tebow makes that much of a difference.  It will take the Chiefs more than one week to overcome the sheer embarrassment of getting utterly thumped by previously-winless Miami. 

DALLAS 20, Buffalo 17 (+5)—Buffalo has covered in the last five regular-season meetings, and Dallas has only one truly dominating win under Jason Garrett—and that was over hapless St. Louis.  Take the points. 

Baltimore 17, SEATTLE 13 (+7)—If there are mousetraps all over the Ravens locker room this week, it won't be because the Baltimore health department mandated it—for this is a textbook trap game, coming one week after the Ravens completed a sweep over Pittsburgh, and one week before their first meeting with newly-arrived AFC North contender Cincinnati. And the home team in this series has won (and also covered) five in a row by a combined score of 159 to 85. 

CHICAGO 27, Detroit 13 (+1)—Detroit has not won as a visitor in cold weather since December 17, 2000, dropping 15 straight—and the last-minute switch of this game into the late time slot makes matters even worse.  The Lions simply aren't built for cold weather with their finesse offense, while the Bears should thrive in the elements with their power-oriented attack.  Best bet. 

N.Y. JETS 28, New England 17 (+1)—There's no denying that New England's offense is now mired in a genuine slump, and Rex Ryan's defense figures to keep it there for at least one more week.

MONDAY NIGHT 

GREEN BAY 48, Minnesota 20 (+14)—The Packers clearly took the Vikings too lightly in the first meeting and won't make the same mistake twice—and not with the Vikings facing the dreaded "Triple Witching Hour" of a dome team having to play outdoors on natural grass and in cold weather, all in the same game. Minnesota is 14-24-3 against the line in "Triple Witching Hour" games since moving into the Metrodome in 1982. 

BEST BETS: ATLANTA, CHICAGO, GREEN BAY  

NOTE: Although 16 games are scheduled to be played this week, only 15 selections appear in this week's column.  At the time of this writing no line had been offered on the remaining game, Arizona at Philadelphia, due to the uncertain status, because of injury, of Cardinals quarterback Kevin Kolb. Therefore, no pick can be made on that game.