Is The NFL Playoff System Flawed?

Thank the Lord almighty that the NFL hasn't looked into a BCS system to replace their current playoff format.

The fact that the elite teams in each conference get to prove their worth on the field in January against the elite competition is far more appropriate than having a bunch of random computer nerds throw together some "formula" that's supposed to determine the best team.

However, I cannot help but notice, especially this season, a slight flaw in the NFL playoff seeding system. I think alot of other Falcon fans here in Atlanta have noticed as well.

Currently, the Atlanta Falcons, who are tied with Tampa Bay at 9-5 in the rough NFC South, sit in the seventh spot in the NFC playoff race.

The Falcons, who have a very real chance of finishing one of their best seasons ever at 11-5 (14-2 in 1998, 12-4 in 1980, 11-5 in 2004), have no control of their own playoff destiny.

Why you ask? Because the Arizona Cardinals, who will finish their year at 8-8 or 10-6 in the awful NFC West, have somehow clinched a playoff spot.

The current NFL playoff system awards the four division winners a playoff spot, as well as home field advantage for their first playoff game. The two non-division winners left with the top records get the wildcard positions, pending on a number of tie breakers and technicalities to solve any ties.

These tie breakers and technicalities could send Atlanta players back to their homes for the holidays this season. Even if Atlanta beats Minnesota and St. Louis and improves to 11-5, they still could completely miss the playoffs.

Thats because if Dallas and Tampa Bay win out, they will hold the wild card spots. Even if Atlanta misses and the Cowboys and Buccaneers make it at 11-5 or 10-6, they still will likely be playing road games against inferior teams with worse records at the end of the year.

I've always been aware of a potential meltdown in this system, it just took a while for it to finally happen.

This season, the NFL has been very top heavy. The NFC South is arguably the best division in the NFL, while every sports commentator will tell you the NFC west is by far the worst division in the NFC.

Now I know I'm speaking two weeks too soon, but what if Atlanta really does go 11-5? What if Arizona falls to 8-8?

How many people would really tell you Arizona is better then Dallas, Tampa Bay, or Atlanta?

Another example is in the AFC playoff race. Indianapolis, at 10-4, is currently projected to go on the road against the currently 8-6 Denver Broncos in the Wild Card matchup. Really?

Is this system really fair? Why can the system not just take the top six teams from each conference. The primary reason for the divisions is scheduling purposes anyway.

I know all Falcon fans want to see Atlanta in the playoffs, but unfortunately those pesky Cardinals called shotgun over a week ago.

Here's an example of a scenario. Once again, this is two weeks premature and a projection, but take a look.

Lets assume Dallas, Tampa Bay, and Atlanta win out (consider Atlanta plays Minnesota next weekend). It's highly likely the Giants will beat Minnesota (9-5) in Week 17.  Chicago (8-6) could also win the NFC North at 10-6, but will not at 9-7 or 8-8, so they aren't playing as much as a factor in this scenario. However, at 10-6 the Bears still will have the technical advantage over an 11-5 team.

The top six records in the NFC would look like this:

1) New York Giants 13-3

2) Carolina Panthers 12-4

3) Dallas Cowboys 11-5, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11-5, Atlanta Falcons 11-5

6) Minnesota Vikings 9-7 or Chicago Bears 10-6

7) Arizona Cardinals 10-6 or worse

Two of those middle three teams will be visiting those bottom teams in the first round of the playoffs. One of those middle three teams will be watching from home. Fair?

I commend Arizona for winning their division, but the Seahawks, Rams, and 49ers combined record is 10-32! The NFC North winner will be coming from a conference that is currently 22-34, or more realistically (when winless Detroit is not factored in) 22-20.

Compare that to the NFC south, where the combined record is 36-20 and also 29-13 when you drop New Orleans (who is eliminated from contention).

The wildcard matchups would look like this.

Dallas (11-5) at Arizona (10-6 or 8-8)

Tampa Bay (11-5) or Atlanta (11-5) at Minnesota (9-7) or Chicago (10-6 or 8-8)

I'm trying to play psychic here, but this race could easily turn into a mess.

Three very well-deserving teams shouldn't have to be fighting for their playoff lives right now while two mediocre teams from mediocre conferences get the breather.

Now if the stars align just right (say Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and Dallas all finish with 10-6 or 9-7 records) the picture will definitely look like it did its job. However, that scenario appears to be less likely.

Maybe the league should give the BCS a shot? If not, a more constructive seeding system would be great. I love the current 12-team playoff system, but the evaluation process appears to be a tad off.

Tell me what you guys think.