Pacquiao vs Marquez Odds: Betting on Fight's Length Is Smarter Than Its Winner

Manny Pacquiao is heavily favored to beat Juan Manuel Marquez on Saturday. Even when considering the history of the two men against each other, that's not terribly surprising. 

Bodog sets the odds of the fight as follows:

Pacquiao (-900). Marquez (+550).

First of all, if you are genuinely convinced that Marquez will win, that's a great bet. If you want to bet on this fight, don't waste another second. 

I don't think Pacquiao will win. But at those odds, how much of a risk is involved in placing a bet that will actually provide a significant payoff?

That's your own financial decision, but that seems like a serious gamble. The payoff may be nice, but it's far too big of a risk.

Conversely, even though Marquez has good odds, what does that do if you don't think he'll win? Betting on the underdog with good odds doesn't do you any good unless his hand is raised at the end of the fight. Sure, the risk may not be as great but if he is going to lose, who cares?

There's the rub. Shift your attention to Bodog's other line, if you will. 

Will the fight go over or under 10.5 rounds?

That's got nothing to do with who wins and loses. If you go over, the only thing you need for a payoff there is for the fight to see an 11th round. If you go under, you only need it to end before the 11th round starts. Who wins and who loses couldn't matter any less. 

But how are the odds set?

Over 10.5 (+110). Under 10.5 (-150)

That's not what you would call an overwhelming spread, but that's favoring the fight getting beyond the 10th round. 

Just in case you're not aware, these two men have fought before and gone to decision both times. In this case, you have two rounds to spare and are actually getting decent odds.

That's a much better bet. No, the payoff wouldn't be as big as it would be if you bet on a Marquez upset and it happened, but this is far simpler. More important than that, it's far more likely.