Pacquiao vs. Marquez: Why Early Rounds Are Key for Marquez Upset

If Juan Manuel Marquez is going to upset Manny Pacquiao, he will need to jump out to an early lead against the champion. This is not to say that he’ll need to dominate the early rounds, but he can’t fall behind.

Why is that?

The early rounds will pretty much decide the winner and loser of any fight, with the exception of the heavyweights.

In the heavyweight division, knockouts are much more prevalent. As long as a fighter is not knocked out in the early rounds, they are not in too bad of a position. All it takes is for that fighter to catch a few good punches and the fight can be theirs.

I know that is much easier for me to say than it is for a heavyweight to do, but the idea is there.

That same idea is there at the lighter weights, but it’s not put into practice very often. 

Knockouts don’t dominate at these weights.

Look at the two top fighters of this era: Pacquiao and Floyd Mayweather Jr.

Pacquiao has 53 career wins. Of those, only 38 came via knockout. Mayweather has 42 wins, 26 via knockout. Marquez has 53 wins, 39 by knockout. By contrast, Wladimir Klitschko has 56 wins, 49 by knockout.

The possibility may be there, but the likelihood that a comeback will happen is slim.

Think about it from a team sports perspective. If you’re a football team facing a top defense, or lack a great offense, an early deficit will really hurt you. If you don’t have the ability to strike quick, a 14-0 hole can make all the difference, even if most of the game has yet to be played.

The ideas are the same here. If Pacquiao gets out to an early lead, he can keep his distance, play defense, and cruise to a win. It’s the boxing equivalent of running out the clock.

At this weight, especially when your opponent is someone as good as Pacquiao, there is a virtual certainty that falling behind early will result in a defeat. Marquez needs to come out strong.