A San Francisco Giants Fan's Guide to the Offseason

The World Series is over. Free Agency has begun. For baseball fans, this can be a confusing and disorienting time of the year. The only live baseball available is the occasional international exhibition and winter/fall ball.

With the San Francisco 49ers currently 7-1 and one of the best teams in the National Football League, many Bay Area fans have shifted their focus to football. But does that mean ignoring the Giants? Of course not. And because you have the "San Francisco Giants Fan’s Guide to the Offseason,” you will be fully prepared when pitchers and catchers (including Buster Posey) return to Spring Training 2012. 

The Starting Rotation

The San Francisco Giants had an 86-76 record in 2011. Not bad—especially when you consider the fact that they were outscored 578-570.

To put this fact into perspective: The San Diego Padres scored 593 runs. Their record was 71-91.

Only the Seattle Mariners scored fewer runs than the Giants (556 runs). Their record: 67-95. Even the lowly Houston Astros, losers of 106 games, scored 615 runs.

The reason that the Giants were not cellar-dwellers was the very reason that they won the World Series in 2010: A spectacular pitching staff and one of the best starting rotations in baseball.

Expect Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner and Ryan Vogelsong to return in 2012. The No. 5 starter will likely be either Jonathan Sanchez or Barry Zito. Do not expect the Giants to pursue any starting pitching in the offseason. 

Tim Lincecum or Matt Cain on the Move?

I have read some speculation on Bleacher Report:

In this article, Doug Mead makes an argument for the San Francisco Giants to part with Tim Lincecum in order to sign Milwaukee Brewers slugger (and current free agent) Prince Fielder. The arguments presented in this article are intriguing and certainly not unique. There has been nearly constant speculation over the years that Matt Cain or Tim Lincecum will be “on the move.”

Not Happening.

Tim Lincecum is a major income draw for the Giants. That is not to say that Prince Fielder would not put fans in the stands. Lincecum’s two Cy Young Awards are exactly two more Cy Young Awards than Juan Marichal and Gaylord Perry won with the Giants. He is a perennial All Star. More importantly, he is loved by fans.

Maybe Tim Lincecum really doesn’t want to sign a massive contract. Maybe he has watched the Barry Zito disaster long enough to know that he doesn’t want that to happen to him. And if the Giants retain Lincecum and can continue to sell tickets, there is no reason that they cannot lock down their pitching staff.

But they will not give up on Timmy. There is a large enough issue with the “fifth starter” position. There is no reason to create a “fourth starter” issue. 

Jonathan Sanchez and the Fifth Starter Question

Speaking of the fifth starter issue, what is to be done with Jonathan Sanchez?

There are resources needed on offense. While Barry Zito, Jonathan Sanchez and Eric Surkamp performed relatively poorly in 2011, all of them are competent enough to be the fifth starter on the San Francisco Giants.

The problem? Barry Zito stands to earn approximately $20MM next season. With so much money invested in Zito, it would not be cost effective to start somebody else. Based on stuff alone, Surkamp seems to be a slight Zito improvement. Jonathan Sanchez has the best stuff of the three pitchers and perhaps the best “stuff” on the entire pitching staff.

He is wild. He is injury prone. The league knows it. But the best free-agent left handed pitcher on the market is C.J. Wilson. Once Wilson signs, the market will be extremely soft, and every team wants talented left-handed pitchers. Jonathan Sanchez might be a strong enough bargaining chip to bring in some talented prospects.

It would be wise to trade him this offseason and get prospects rather than lose him to free agency in 2013 and get absolutely nothing. 

The Bullpen

The Giants already secured both Jeremy Affeldt and Javier Lopez for 2012. My fellow writers and I debated towards the end of 2011 as to which of the two left-handed pitchers San Francisco would re-sign.

The fact that the Giants are evidently committed to keeping their bullpen intact leads me to believe that virtually everybody from the Giants bullpen will return next season. And this is a very, very good thing. The Giants’ bullpen is one of the best in the majors, and second in the National League perhaps only to that of the Atlanta Braves.

Brian Wilson, Sergio Romo, Javier Lopez, Santiago Casilla, Jeremy Affeldt and more will all be coming back. 

Sergio Romo or Brian Wilson?

It will be very important to see how Brian Wilson progresses from his elbow injury. The fact that the talkative Wilson has been mum about his injury might be cause for concern, yet the absence of surgery leads one to think that perhaps he is just being cautious.

If Brian Wilson is unable to begin the season as a closer, it might be fun to speculate as to whether or not Sergio Romo could step in as the San Francisco Giants closer. Romo’s 2011 numbers match up favorably with nearly every other reliever and, in fact, border on “historical.” Romo managed to throw a “relief perfect game” and walked only five people all season in forty-eight innings. He struck out seventy hitters over this time and surrendered only eight runs.

Brian Wilson may be coming to the end of his effectiveness as a closer. He has also become a caricature. His antics, enjoyable as they are, are not backed up by his 2011 numbers. Especially not when the man pitching behind him just might be a better pitcher.  

Who’s on First?

Aubrey Huff. Brandon Belt. Brett Pill.

If you thought the Zito/Sanchez/Surkamp issue was dicey, consider the Giants’ first base quandary! Aubrey Huff, coming off a disastrous 2011, is slated to start at first base in 2012. If he can put up the MVP caliber numbers that helped lead San Francisco to a World Series Championship in 2010, this will be an embarrassment of riches.

But if not...then Bruce Bochy’s real colors will be revealed. Will Bochy bench Huff and start Brett Pill or Brandon Belt at first base? Bochy’s late-season successful utilization of Brett Pill suggest that he may turn the heat up on Huff.

The most important point here is that it seems very unlikely that the Giants will contend for Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder. With the St. Louis Cardinals 2011 World Series victory and the resulting post-season financial boost, they may be able to re-sign Albert Pujols. Theo Epstein, the new General Manager for the Chicago Cubs, may be willing to sign Prince Fielder in order to give the Chicago Cubs a bona-fide slugger-star.

And that’s just fine. Because the Giants don’t need Pujols and they don’t need Fielder. They need to figure out “who’s on first.” 

Say Goodbye

It breaks my heart to say this, Giants fans, but Orlando Cabrera will not be with us next season. Those who enjoyed watching Cabrera ground out softly to shortstop in clutch situations or ruining Tim Lincecum gems by botching tailor-made double plays will be in for a disappointment come 2012.

While Pat “The Bat” Burrell and Mark De Rosa were excellent clubhouse leaders, it is doubtful that either player will return next season. If they do, it will be for a token salary. Mike Fontenot has probably seen his last ground ball in a Giants uniform, and there is a chance that Jeff Keppinger may be packaged in a trade deal (although he may be too valuable to drop).

If the Giants cannot substantially reinforce their lineup, Carlos Beltran will don a new uniform next season, which may or may not actually be a bad thing. You will probably also find someone not named Andres Torres in center field next season. If you do find him, you certainly will not find someone named Cody Ross.

I also predict that Eli Whiteside will take his substandard glove and batting average to a minor league affiliate of another major league team. 

Say Hello

More appropriately, say “welcome back!”

Welcome back, Buster Posey!

Welcome back, Freddy Sanchez!

These two extraordinarily valuable players will rejoin the San Francisco Giants in 2012 after missing much of 2011 with serious injuries.

I predict that the Giants will sign a few free agents as well. We will be seeing a new shortstop and at least power-hitting outfielder. My personal choices: Jimmy Rollins (shortstop), Carlos Beltran (outfield) or Coco Crisp (outfield). Michael Cuddyer would be another excellent choice. I would be surprised if the Giants signed more than two “semi-big ticket” free agents. 

Coming Soon

Gary Brown has yet to step into a AAA (or even AA) batter’s box, but odds are good that he will at least make a cameo for the San Francisco Giants in 2012. Considered one of the best prospects in the country, Brown will likely be given a chance to perform. It might be worth watching him to see how he performs this winter and spring.

Other “almost there” prospects that may become fixtures next season: Conor Gillaspie, Brandon Crawford and Brett Pill could solidify spot on the big league roster (or at least bring the Giants significant trade value) with good winter/spring performances.

Even Eric Surkamp may mature into a dynamic big league pitcher. His “stuff” is not very good and his minor league strikeout-to-walk ratio is extremely misleading and does not seem tenable at the major league level. But, just as the baseball world needs Jamie Moyer-type pitchers, the Giants may have a need for Surkamp. 

The New Owner

Larry Baer will likely continue the same business model that brought the Giants championship success in 2010. You won’t see many (or any) big ticket free agent signings. You will see continued farm development, intelligent drafting and successful player retention.

For those looking for a busy offseason, you probably won’t find one. For those looking for the Giants to return to excellence and thrive for years to come with the stars they have assembled, well, you may just find what you’re looking for.