San Francisco 49ers: Alex Smith Is the New Trent Dilfer

I was watching NFL Network last weekend and watched a discussion between two of the commentators as to whether or not Alex Smith could lead the San Francisco 49ers to a Super Bowl. An immediate agreement was reached by both commentators, and the answer was a resounding “NO.”

They compared Smith unfavorably with top quarterbacks in the NFL such as Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Michael Vick, etc., stating that he simply does not have the “big play” capability of those quarterbacks.

I will not dispute that judgment, although these commentators might want to take a good, hard look at Alex Smith’s fourth down touchdown pass against the Lions in Week 6 and reevaluate their stance. Big plays do not always win football games (see: Michael Vick). Crucial plays are infinitely more important.

For the record, here are Alex Smith’s statistics thus far:

2011: 7 games, 1267 yards, 9 TD, 2 INT, 63.2 completion percentage, 95.7 QB Rating

These are excellent numbers. But the most important numbers here are the 63.2 completion percentage and the two interceptions. He is giving his receivers opportunities to catch the ball, yet is avoiding turning the ball over.

Alex Smith is not Aaron Rodgers. But he doesn’t need to be. Those two commentators (who shall remain nameless) may have not been so quick to dismiss San Francisco’s Super Bowl chances had they considered the 2000 Baltimore Ravens.

The Ravens, anchored by a terrific middle-linebacker wearing No. 52 (Ray Lewis), fielded one of the best defenses of all time. Led by dominant running back Jamal Lewis, the Ravens secured a 12-4 record, a wild card berth and ultimately a Super Bowl victory over the New York Giants.

The Ravens quarterback during much of that run? Trent Dilfer. Here are Dilfer’s numbers for 2000:

2000: 11 games, 8 starts, 1502 yards, 12 TD, 11 INT, 59.3 completion percentage, 76.6 QB Rating

(numbers exclude post-season performance)

Analysts often call Dilfer the “worst quarterback to ever start a Super Bowl.” He was released during the offseason, and is the only quarterback to ever have been released by a Super Bowl winning team. Yet after losing his first start of 2000, the Ravens never lost another game with Dilfer at the helm.

The San Francisco 49ers this year feature a dominant defense anchored by a terrific inside linebacker wearing No. 52 (Patrick Willis). They have a dominant ground game led by Frank Gore. They are currently 6-1 and will almost certainly clinch their division, and they have a legitimate shot at a first-round bye in the playoffs.

Granted, the 2011 49ers defense is not as stout as that of the 2000 Ravens. Based on points allowed, however, the 49ers have the No. 1 defense in the National Football League. Alex Smith’s numbers are clearly better than Trent Dilfer’s in 2000, and Smith’s leadership and intangibles are at least on par with Dilfer’s.

If you were to rewind the clock 11 years, you would likely find NFL commentators unfavorably comparing Trent Dilfer to Peyton Manning, Kurt Warner, Rich Gannon and Jeff Garcia (league leaders in passing). Baltimore was supposed to lose to Tennessee and Oakland.

But none of those other quarterbacks or teams won the Super Bowl in 2000. Trent Dilfer and the Baltimore Ravens did. So yes, the San Francisco 49ers can win a Super Bowl with Alex Smith at quarterback.