LSU vs. Alabama Predictions: Trent Richardson Will Be Hero of Defensive Struggle

There are plenty of years in which a battle of the nation’s top two teams would mean great offensive players putting up gaudy numbers in a shootout. Expect that from tomorrow’s LSU-Alabama showdown, though, and you’re in for a severe disappointment.

The Tigers and Tide have allowed fewer than 19 points a game combined in 2011. Although both teams have done their share of scoring this year, it’s hard to imagine either of these very good offenses making much of a dent in the superlative defenses.

With the Crimson Tide playing on their home field, LSU’s offense will already be at a slight disadvantage. The more crucial deciding factor, however, will be Alabama running back Trent Richardson.

On paper, the Tigers’ backfield tandem of Spencer Ware and Michael Ford has been nearly the equal of Heisman candidate Richardson, albeit with fewer rushing TDs. However, both Ware and Ford are more valuable for their speed than their power, and trying to win by being faster than the Alabama defense is rarely a recipe for success.

Richardson, in contrast, is a premier power runner, with more than half of his 989 yards coming after contact. The fleet LSU defense isn’t going to give up breakaway runs any more than Alabama’s—after all, even LaMichael James couldn’t break 60 yards against the Tigers—but Richardson will find a measure of success running over rather than around those tacklers.

That’s far from saying that Richardson will come close to his per-game averages of 123 yards and two touchdowns, but there’s no offensive player on either side who has more chance of making an impact. In a game that could easily finish with a 7-0 score, Richardson’s ability to control the ball and the clock will make all the difference for Alabama.