Falcons-Bucs: Five Things Atlanta Must Do in Week 15

While few expected the Atlanta Falcons to be 8-5 and playing meaningful games in December, since it's happened, there's nothing wrong with being excited about it.

Heck, there's nothing wrong with believing these Falcons can make the playoffs, or even win the NFC South division. While the first is more likely than the latter, neither will happen if Atlanta loses to Tampa Bay on Sunday.

Well, Atlanta won't be technically eliminated from the playoffs, but a lot would have to happen at that point.

The Falcons are 5-1 at home this season and have that in their favor. NFC South teams are a ridiculous 24-2 at home this season, so that bodes well for Atlanta as well.

Both teams are coming off tough road losses, Atlanta to New Orleans and the Bucs to Carolina on Monday night. Both look to bounce back and both look to bolster their playoff chances.

If they accomplish these five things, the Falcons will be flying high after winning the first of three (and arguably the toughest) must-win games.

Run the ball successfully

Okay, I know, not exactly ground breaking. In what is one of the most-overused statements in football, the Falcons must run the ball to be successful.

Running back Michael Turner was held to 42 yards on 14 carries the last time these two met up. He looks to bounce back from a tough game against New Orleans last week where he only managed 61 yards. There's some concern that Turner is running out of juice in his first season as the featured back, one that has seen him carry the ball a league-leading 300 times.

Tampa Bay's run defense ranking took a serious hit after giving up 299 yards to the Panthers on Monday. You know they'll come ready to play and most eyes will be in the backfield.

Atlanta's second-ranked rushing game must get cranked early and if successful, should be used often. Atlanta's 6-0 when Turner rushes for more than 100 yards in a game.

Running back Jerious Norwood's rib injury has cut into his production in the last few weeks. In the last three games, he hasn't run the ball more than five times.

If he's unable to make an impact, look for third-stringer Jason Snelling to factor in to the equation. Snelling's style is similar to Turner's and that could work in Atlanta's favor.

Late in the game, it won't be much fun (for Bucs' fans) for some of the older Bucs' defensive players to get run over by a fresh Snelling.

If Turner manages to break the century mark, look for Atlanta to win.

Keep the first quarter success going

On Monday, Tampa Bay extended its streak of not scoring in the first quarter to six games. As we all know by now, Atlanta's 6-0 when scoring on their opening drive.

Continuing their first-quarter scoring would go a long way in Sunday's game.

If they can balance the running game with the pass, they'll be able to keep Tampa Bay's defense spread out. Atlanta struggled against the Bucs' cover-2 last time out, and a strong running game would help. 

It's still unknown whether Buccaneers' defensive tackle Jovan Haye can go, but if he's not playing, look for Atlanta to run right at his replacement Ryan Sims.

Haye's presence in the middle was clearly missed on Monday night. Sims was unable to stop blockers up the middle so Carolina's linemen were able to get to Tampa Bay's talented linebacker Barrett Ruud quickly and prevent him from making a lot of noise. Look for Atlanta to attempt to do the same.

Ruud is easily the most athletic linebacker (though Cato June's no slouch) for Tampa Bay and though Carolina had success up the middle against him they were even better when they kept the running lanes to the outside. Staying out of the middle of the field keeps Ruud further from the action.

If Atlanta can take a few tips from the Panthers and control the game with the run early the scoring should come. If the running game is going, quarterback Matt Ryan can begin to look to the air and expect looser coverage on his receivers. If he can connect with them, that offensive balance will go a long way toward softening the Bucs’ defense.

Tampa Bay has a nice mix of veterans and young guys on defense, but if Atlanta can use the no-huddle to keep the clock moving and the defense off-balance, look for the older guys to get winded quickly.

We know what happens when old guys get tired. Imagine a tired Bucs' defensive tackle Chris Hovan trying to tackle a hard-charging Turner. That's a nice image.

Obvious statement number three: If receiver Roddy White goes for 100 yards with Turner's 100 on the ground, the Falcons will win this running away (no pun intended).

Don't give up big plays on special teams

After giving up a critical 88-yard return late in the Saints' game, this phase of the game could damage Atlanta's chances for a win as they'll find themselves kicking and punting to a talented return man.

"We've done a nice job throughout the season of covering kicks," Coach Mike Smith said of his special teams unit. "I think we really did a nice job in that ball game up until that point (the 88-yard Pierre Thomas return against the Saints) covering kicks."

Coach Smith's right, as the Atlanta Journal Constitution points out in Friday's edition. The punt coverage is actually on a record-setting pace. They're close to setting the NFL record for fewest punt return yards allowed in a season.

Tampa Bay's rookie return man, Clifton Smith, is dangerous but also prone to a mistake. While he's returned a kick and punt for a touchdown, he's also fumbled four times.

Atlanta can't afford to miss tackles as they did against the Saints.

"There were actually three missed tackles on the kickoff return," Smith said. "There were also a couple of leverage issues where guys were out of position."

This includes the kicker Michael Koenen, who was guilty of one of the missed tackles.

"He has to tackle as well," Smith said of Koenen. "We hope he doesn't have a whole lot of opportunities...He's involved in our coverage units."

Stop Tampa Bay's running game

I've lost track, but I think that's obvious statement number four. But, it's true--this shapes out to be that kind of game.

The Falcons run defense has been up and down all season.

They held San Diego's LaDainian Tomlinson to 24 yards, but that was possibly the exception rather than the rule. They've given up 192 to Philadelphia, 184 to the Saints and Chiefs, and 116 to Tampa Bay's Ernest Graham.

Fortunately for Atlanta, Graham is now out for the season with an ankle injury.

Tampa Bay's remaining attack consists of former Falcon Warrick Dunn and returning-from-injury Cadillac Williams. It's not an imposing attack, but the Saints' wasn't expected to be either.

If the Falcons can limit the Bucs' running game effectiveness, a one-dimensional Tampa Bay offense could be easily contained.

However quarterback Jeff Garcia can dink-and-dunk with the best of them and he's still got some mobility in those 38-year-old legs.

But Carolina sacked Garcia five times, which impacted his ability to stay creative in the passing game. On paper, he had a great game, 24-for-38 with 321 yards and two touchdowns, but 200 of those yards and both touchdowns went to wide receiver Antonio Bryant.

Garcia injured a calf earlier this week and has been limited in practice. On Friday afternoon the Tampa Tribune is reporting that Garcia's status "remains up in the air."

If backups Luke McCown or Brian Griese have to start, Tampa Bay's day could be long and unpleasant.

Don't let Antonio Bryant beat you

Whoever the Bucs' quarterback may be, look for him to get Bryant involved. Imagine how inept their offense would have been had it not been for Bryant's 200 yards and two touchdowns on Monday night.

Cornerback Chris Houston will likely get the responsibility for covering Bryant. If the Falcons' defense can manage the running game, Houston will get help from safety's Erik Coleman and Lawyer Milloy, which could go a long way toward keeping Bryant under wraps.

In Monday night's game, the other Tampa Bay receivers dropped six passes. If Bryant is contained, so is the Bucs' passing offense.

If the passing offense is contained, the running offense is likely to be contained as well. That all leads to an Atlanta win and one more week of meaningful football for Falcons fans.

This article originally appeared on the Atlanta Falcons Examiner page. To view, go here.