2011 Breeders Cup: Uncle Mo Will Succeed in Last Effort to Save His Season

The performance of Uncle Mo before the Kentucky Derby made him the early favorite in the Run for the Roses. Unfortunately, he was scratched from that race, as well as the other two Triple Crown races, as a result of a liver disease known as cholangiohepatitis.

According to the Washington Post's Andrew Beyer, Uncle Mo dropped 70 pounds in the week leading up to the Kentucky Derby, which led to him being scratched. 

Uncle Mo is entered in the 2011 Breeders' Cup Classic, which Beyer feels the horse is not ready for. Bodog disagrees with Beyer's assessment, as Uncle Mo is a 4.5:1 favorite, which has him as the top gun in the race. 

I also disagree with Beyer's perspective, although I am not too concerned with the betting line. Frankly, at 4.5:1, Uncle Mo isn't really a good enough payoff to put money on. 

But take a look at what this horse has accomplished when he's been he's been healthy. His 2011 season hasn't been great, but when he's been on the track and healthy, he's been the best in the world. 

Beyer himself doesn't deny any of that. 

Pre-illness: 

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He had the potential to become the first Triple Crown winner since 1978.

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Post-illness: 

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Uncle Mo didn’t return to competition until Aug. 27 at Saratoga, losing his comeback race by a nose in a good effort. Then he faced three rivals in the one-mile Kelso Stakes at Belmont Park, where he got an uncontested early lead and scored a decisive victory, earning a Beyer Speed Figure of 118, the fastest performance at a mile or more by any horse this year.

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That seems like a pretty good run of success for the horse that won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in 2010.

Saying that racing him in the Classic is too ambitious seems quite premature at this point. Uncle Mo has been a very effective, reliable horse when he's been on the track. 

Again, the odds are too good to bet on him to win his race. The payoff just isn't really there unless you put out a pretty good sum of money. But I sure won't be betting against him.