Fantasy Football: Week 15 Preview, Part Two

So about last night... 

If you own Reggie Bush (as I do in several leagues), you likely are as irritated as I am. Bush had a favorable matchup and ends up being virtually non-existent in the second half. If you're lucky enough to still move on after his subpar performance, I'd be cautious moving in to next week. 

Bush reportedly tweaked his knee. That injury made Pierre Thomas the back of choice, and made me a liar. 

Adding insult to injury, Kyle Orton only performed marginally against a Saints defense that had been vulnerable to the pass most of the season. Devin Hester had a solid game, and continues to improve as a receiver. There were a couple plays last night where he broke off his route at just the right time and ended up open for key passes. 

Matt Forte's injury has me concerned. If he's not that hurt, than Lovie Smith's game plan was interesting. Have to see how this plays out over the course of the week. 

As an FYI, Drew Brees, though solid last night, is overall poor on the road. His home/road split is pretty dramatic, based on what NFL Network had up last night.

Let's break down the rest of the games. 

Tennessee at Houston 

Who to Start: Chris Johnson, LenDale White, Justin Gage, Kerry Collins 

Who to Sit: Kevin Walter, Matt Schaub, Steve Slaton 

What to Expect: I know, I'm going against Kevin Walter again. 

Hear me out. Matthew Berry pointed out in his write up this week (which was graciously sent to me by a member of the 'Table) that Walter follows up every good game with a below average game. Last week was impressive. Pattern should hold this week isn't so much. 

On top of that, the Titans' defense is solid against the pass, gets pressure on the quarterback, and creates turnovers effectively. I'm staying away from Walter and Schaub, but will keep Andre Johnson around. You don't sit one of the best in football. It just doesn't make sense. 

With Slaton going up against a good run defense, I'm going to hold him back if I have other options. Slaton has been impressive in his rookie season, but I don't see it happening against the Titans' defense. He could score, but his yardage will be around 65-70.

I'm starting both Titans backs, and that should be without question nearly every week.

In the passing game, I'm going to go with Justin Gage and Kerry Collins. The Texans secondary is beatable, as evidenced by some of their recent games. Even Collins should be able to throw for 220 with a couple touchdowns here. While the Titans will run the ball most of the game, there will be throwing lanes available. 

Sleeper Pickup: Gage. He's one of only two real targets for Collins. 

Minnesota at Arizona 

Who to Start: Steve Breaston, Bernard Berrian, Visanthe Shiancoe
 
Who to Sit: Tim Hightower, Chester Taylor, Tarvaris Jackson
 
What to Expect: Expect offense coming out of this one. And it will be in two different directions. 

The Cardinals haven't run the ball effectively outside of a handful of games this season. That's not going to change here, as Minnesota's front is solid against the rush. With the Williams Wall eligible to play after the suspension decision, the Cardinals will again be forced to the air. 

Not a problem for this team. Kurt Warner should be in for a great day. I like him for 330 and three touchdowns. There will be plenty to go around, and all three primary receivers in Arizona will make decent plays. Breaston, Anquan Boldin, and Larry Fitzgerald will all have solid days and I wouldn't bench any of them. 

I won't be starting Hightower, it'll be too much fun through the air. 

The Vikings will look to play ball control and beat the Cardinals on the ground. Especially with Jackson at quarterback, the goal will be to minimize the chances for mistakes. AP will run the ball all day long, and will certainly break 125 with two scores. 

I like Berrian and Shiancoe in the passing game. Shiancoe will be a solid play at tight end, and was able to score last week. Look for him to do the same this week and put up around 55 yards.

Berrian is a big-play threat, and I'll put out there that he comes up with one. It may not be for a touchdown, but eight points wouldn't be out of the question.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Shinacoe. It's a good matchup for him, and he's done well with Jackson at quarterback. 

Denver at Carolina 

Who to Start: Jonathan Stewart, DeAngelo Williams, Eddie Royal
 
Who to Sit: Muhsin Muhammad, Jake Delhomme Denver Running Backs
 
What to Expect: I'd expect that John Fox reads scouting reports better than Eric Mangini. 

There is no way that the Panthers make the same mistake the Jets made. They ran the football well against the Bucs, they'll be in just as good shape against the Broncos. Stewart and Williams both break 100 yards, and combine for three scores. I don't even think that's being aggressive. 

Jake Delhomme is not going to have to win this game, and that's why I don't like using a secondary option like Muhammad. Steve Smith shouldn't have any problems, but he'll be the primary target. The rest of the game is going to rest on the running backs for Carolina. 

The Broncos are going to need to throw the ball, given the health status of their running backs. I'm not buying Tatum Bell or Selvin Young in a playoff week. I'll trust that the coaching staff knows better than to try to pound away at the run. 

Jay Cutler should find Tony Scheffler, Eddie Royal, and Brandon Marshall with regularity. Look for three scores from Cutler and 275 yards. Remember, even Jeff Garcia threw well on these guys last week. The Bucs don't have close to the same weapons. Marshall draws Ken Lucas, but don't let that hold you back.
 
Sleeper Pickup: None here. This is a straight-up game where you go with the regulars.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore 

Who to Start: Nate Washington
 
Who to Sit: Ben Roethlisberger, Joe Flacco, Baltimore Running Backs, Mewelde Moore, Willie Parker...it's a long list.
 
What to Expect: I'm expecting defense, as is most everyone else. 

The Steelers are the No. 1 defense in the NFL. They defend the run and the pass better than anyone. That in mind, don't look to start any of your Ravens in this one. It's going to be a slug fest. We never know which Ravens running back will get the carries, so that rules out using them. 

Pittsburgh is very good at forcing turnovers, so that keeps me away from the quarterback situation. It should also have you shying away from receivers that will need to catch Flacco's passes. Just not a good matchup.

The Ravens defense is better against the run than the pass. I'd bench both Pittsburgh runners for this one, but might use a guy like Nate Washington in deeper leagues. It's a hunch that he has the best chance to score, but something I'm going with. 

Fact is, this should be a low scoring game. If that's the case, you don't want any fantasy playoff hopes riding on it.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Washington. It's a feeling, and you need to really be in a bind. 

New England at Oakland 

Who to Start: Wes Welker, Kevin Faulk, Zach Miller, Johnnie Lee Higgins, Justin Fargas
 
Who to Sit: Matt Cassel, JaMarcus Russell
 
What to Expect: This is going to be a tough one to call. 

Matt Cassel has been back and forth following the death of his father. Can't say how something like that will impact a guy. I do think that the Raiders' pass defense is better than they are being given credit for, and they have the best corner in the league.  

Nnamdi Asomugha will be shadowing Randy Moss most of the day. If that's the case, I like Welker to be pretty solid. The Raiders linebackers are weak, and Welker loves the middle of the field. Now, all bets are off if Cassel isn't under center. 

In the running game, Faulk and Sammy Morris should be started, as the Pats will look to spend a fair amount of the day on the ground against a poor run defense. I'd have them both in almost any lineup. 

The Raiders will look to rip a page from the Seahawks. They don't necessarily have the same talent at receiver, and that's saying something, but they should be looking to throw against the poor Pats secondary.

The Patriots are more ravaged by injury than even last week. Ty Warren is likely still out, Tedy Bruschi is out, Vince Wilfork is only practicing on a limited basis. 

You take all this into account, and the Raiders COULD put up some points. I wouldn't start Russell, but I do like Darren McFadden, Fargas, Miller, and, in REALLY DEEP LEAGUES, Higgins. It's a call that could pay dividends if you're struggling with matchups.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Miller. He's targeted often, and the Pats linebackers are getting older every week. 

New York Giants at Dallas 

Who to Start: Derrick Ward, Domenick Hixon, Amani Toomer, Kevin Boss, Eli Manning, Marion Barber, Tashard Choice
 
Who to Sit: Roy Williams, Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw
 
What to Expect: I never like it when there is discontent that can disrupt an offense, and that's what we have here. 

When guys are going to the offensive coordinator for a closed-door meeting because they don't like the offense, I think that's an issue. If Dallas weren't winning, they could make an argument. The Cowboys are playing well with Tony Romo back, and I don't think the conversation is going to produce the right results. 

Romo is still going to find Jason Witten often, and both Barber and Choice will be involved enough in the offense to warrant being started. Choice is a flex option, but not a bad one. I think he has upside, especially if Barber is more hurt. Look for them to use him like they did Felix Jones earlier this season. 

I'm starting Owens, but avoiding all other Cowboys receivers. The ball will never be spread enough for everyone, but this is getting sad to deal with. If these guys worried about winning as much as stats, the Cowboys would be better off. Jason Garrett isn't going to change the way he calls plays after that one meeting. 

Eli Manning will be in for a good day against a weak secondary. Everyone throws on the Cowboys, and this won't be an exception. I like him for 240 and three touchdowns. I think it will be similar to the way he had to play without Jacobs earlier this season. Hixon, Boss, and Toomer will make solid plays in the passing game. 

Running the ball will be a challenge. I think they use Ward more than Bradshaw. That's a boost for PPR league owners, as Ward catches the ball well out of the backfield. Use him as a flex. I'm not starting Bradshaw in any format.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Ward. He should be the guy this week. 

Cleveland at Philadelphia 

Who to Start: Kevin Curtis, DeSean Jackson, Donovan McNabb, L.J. Smith
 
Who to Sit: Everyone on Cleveland
 
What to Expect: Alright, let's get the Cleveland thing out of the way. Here's how I see their offense. 

They're bad, you don't want to own them and you certainly don't want to start them. That's all we have to consider here. 

For Philadelphia, I think the passing game is going to be in full effect at home. Start them all, as McNabb should put up 300 yards and two touchdowns. Jackson will create yardage, Smith is being used more frequently, and Curtis is back and effective. 

Brian Westbrook is a start every week, and that's no change here. It's tough wrapping it up this way, but this is really an easy one on the surface. We'll take it for what it is.

Sleeper Pickup: Smith. He's going to be targeted often in this one, and should be good for a score. 

Enjoy the games, talk some smack, and get your teams to the finals!