NFL Week 9 Picks: Gauging the Likelihood of Every Upset Scenario

The one-win Jacksonville Jaguars beat the 4-1 Baltimore Ravens, the Buffalo Bills beat the New England Patriots for the first time in 15 tries and the St. Louis Rams are fresh off a dominating win over the New Orleans Saints. 

It's safe to say that the 2011 NFL season can be described with one word. 

Unpredictable. 

There are some interesting matchups this week, ones that pit divisional foes against each other and others that are for conference bragging rights. 

Here I'll gauge the likelihood of every upset scenario, because hey, you just don't know what might happen.

Dolphins at Chiefs

The Chiefs are arguably the hottest team in football, while the Dolphins have sputtered in the fourth quarter in each of their last two games.

They're playing better football, but they have yet to put together at complete effort. Miami isn't that dangerous on offense and Kansas City's defense, especially the secondary, is stifling right now. 

Miami's Upset Chances: 25 percent

Falcons at Colts

I've been looking, but I can't find a team in more disarray than the Indianapolis Colts. Meanwhile, the Falcons are winners of two straight and have finally realized that Michael Turner is the heartbeat of their offense. Way too much offense for the Colts to handle. One step closer to Luck, right?

Colts' Upset Chances: 10 percent

Buccaneers at Saints

This is a tough one to figure out exactly. The Saints are coming off one of their most embarrassing defeats of the last three years while the Bucs have been one of the most Jekyll and Hyde teams in football this season.

No way Brees has another sub-par game, and we know how much energy is infused into the Saints when they're inside the Superdome. 

Bucs' Upset Chances: 35 percent

Jets at Bills

Wow. The Jets are one and a half point underdogs up in Orchard Park. New York is 0-2 off the bye under Rex Ryan and the Bills dismantled the Redskins last week in their most complete performance in years.

Can New York establish the run and will Mark Sanchez get comfortable throwing against Buffalo's susceptible yet opportunistic defense? Will Fred Jackson run wild? How will Ryan Fitzpatrick fare against Darrelle Revis and Co.?

Flip a coin. 

Jets' Upset Chances: 50 percent

Seahawks at Cowboys

So, the consensus is that the Cowboys aren't as good as we initially thought. Am I following this correctly? Whether they're ready to make a run at the Giants atop the NFC East, or will fall well short of the playoffs, this is almost assuredly a win for Big D.

Rob Ryan will have a solid game plan to stop Tarvaris Jackson. On paper, this looks like a blowout, but with a few turnovers, this could be a close one. 

Seahawks' Upset Chances: 35 percent

Browns at Texans

Two dissimilar teams. Houston has offensive firepower galore while the Browns try to beat you with maybe one touchdown, a few field goals and sound defense. With Andre Johnson likely to return, Cleveland won't be able to keep pace with the Texans. 

Browns' Upset Chances: 15 percent

49ers at Redskins

The 49ers will smother the Redskins offense in this one. Just look at what the Bills below-average defense did last week. Washington will see a heavy dosage of Frank Gore too, as San Francisco will establish their style of football early. 

Redskins' Upset Chances: 5 percent

Bengals at Titans

Is Tennessee good? Or are they just a 7-9, 8-8 team? Right now, I'm taking the latter. With Chris Johnson struggling (how motivated is he?) and a middle-of-the-pack defense, they simply aren't a scary team at this point.

The Bengals defense is a top-tier unit while Andy Dalton looks like a seasoned vet out there. Should be a closely contested game in Nashville. 

Bengals' Upset Chances: 65 percent

Broncos at Raiders

After last week's abomination against the Lions, Tim Tebow is done. Or at least that's what everyone thinks. Give him some time. Remember, the Raiders' quarterbacks weren't the greatest the last time we saw them out, either. In a sloppy game that could be filled with turnovers, anything could happen. 

Broncos' Upset Chances: 25 percent

Giants at Patriots

The Patriots don't lose consecutive games. The last time they did was in 2009. This is probably the most likely chance for it to happen. The Giants' defensive line leads the NFL with 26 sacks and New York's receiving contingent have become one of the better units in the NFC.

New England always seems to get the big play from their defense late at home and isn't Eli Manning bound for some turnovers? He hasn't thrown a pick since Week 5. His play will be the difference.

Rams at Cardinals

There is life for the Rams! For as much as we've dogged them this season for their uninspired play, we forget that Steven Jackson is still one of the best runners in football. The defensive line, led by Chris Long (six sacks) has emerged as quite the menacing group of athletes. Brandon Lloyd certainly helps as well. Good move there, St. Louis. The Cardinals were deflated after their collapse against the Ravens last week, but definitely have a few talented playmakers to thwart the Rams' upset bid. 

Rams' Upset Chances: 50 percent

Packers at Chargers

A few weeks ago, this was supposed to be the game that ended the Packers' run at perfection. Too much talent on offense for San Diego with a defense that could stymie Green Bay. Now, I'm thinking the experts were off in their prediction. Aaron Rodgers will have no problem dicing through the San Diego secondary and although Philip Rivers should be able to throw for big-time yardage, the Packers secondary still has some ball hawks that can take the ball away. 

Chargers' Upset Chances: 30 percent

Ravens at Steelers

After watching what Pittsburgh did to the great Tom Brady, imagine what they'll do to Joe Flacco on Sunday Night. It could get ugly. These teams usually bring out the best in each other in their usual slug fest, but the Steelers assailing defense and potent aerial attack will prove to be too much. 

Ravens' Upset Chances: 40 percent

Chicago at Philadelphia

The Bears have been protecting Jay Cutler of late, and he's rewarded them with stellar play and two victories over NFC opponents. Their defense has been a lot worse than what we've seen in the past, and outside of the offensive line improvement, that's been the biggest surprise to me. They're allowing 108 yards on the ground and 271 through the air per game.

The Eagles are looking more and more like the Super Bowl contender we thought they'd be at the start of the season and if they don't turn it over, they're extremely tough to beat. Who would have thought they'd be a run-first team?