13-3: How the New York Jets Win out

People have been saying this year's Jets team is a different model than those of the Rex Ryan era: more offense and less defense. Those people have only been looking at the final scores.

So far the Jets have scored 172 points, which would be a respectable offensive output. Many of those points, however, haven't been from the offense. The defense and special teams have combined for 60 points (including field position within 20 yards of the end zone), while the offense has given up 38. That means the offense nets a little over 11.5 points per game. To win out, the Jets offense will need to stop scoring in the wrong direction.

What follows is how they will beat each opponent:

Kill Bills Vol. 1

The Bills have been one of the surprises of the league this year behind the strong play of Ryan Fitzpatrick, Fred Jackson, and Stevie Johnson. The Jets will need to stop Jackson, who is almost as dangerous receiving as he is rushing—a style of back the Jets linebackers can struggle to cover.

The Bills defense leads the conference in turnover margin; however,  they have given up a lot of yardage. If the Jets can hold on to the ball, they should be able to put up points. Kyle Williams will likely not be playing so the Jets should be able to establish the ground and pound.

The Brady Bunch

Rex Ryan has never lost to the Patriots at home. Surely, a small sample size but impressive nonetheless. To continue that streak, the Jets will need to pressure Tom Brady and keep the Patriots defense on their heels. Look for them to try more screen passes and short slants to set up the long ball.

It's a Trap!

Tim Tebow will be the story of this game, and people will play up the contrasting media personae of the cocky Jets and the blindingly bland (at best) Tebow. While normally that sort of talk would be a distraction, it might be helpful here since this game epitomizes the phrase, “trap game”.

It’s a short week (Thursday night game after a Sunday night game) following what is sure to be a draining game against the Patriots and before what could be a season-deciding game against the Bills. If the defense shows up, the Jets might wind up winning a sloppy game 16-10 or so.

Kill Bills Vol. 2

Like Tarantino’s sequel, this one will be almost identical to the first.

NFC Least

The Jets will face off against Rex Grossman/Ray Lucas/Jay Fiedler/John Beck or whomever Shanahan likes that week.

The Redskins started off the season looking like they might make a playoff push, but the uncertainty at quarterback and injuries have taken their toll on this team. While I have been offering ways for the Jets to win out, they might be realistically be 6-5 at this point of the season. With that being the case, they could still easily finish 10-6 with the schedule remaining. If this is a must win game, I would expect to see the Jets grind this game out on the ground and see if the Redskins offense shoots itself in the foot.

Chief Concerns

After losing Jamaal Charles early in the season, the Chiefs have successfully split carries between Jackie Battle, Dexter McCluster, and Thomas Jones. Battle and McCluster are each averaging over 5 ypc. The Jets will need to contain all of them, which shouldn’t be too difficult given the Chiefs miserable (30th ranked) passing attack.

With Revis covering Dwayne Bowe, the Chiefs will have even more problems than usual. Additionally, this is week four of a miserable stretch of games for Kansas City (New England, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Jets, Green Bay, Oakland)—they might be sluggish.

A Dream(team) Deferred

Alright, so far the Eagles season hasn’t gone to script. The team still seems like one that could terrorize the Jets with the speed of LaSean McCoy and Michael Vick. I expect that if the Jets do play some variant of a QB spy, it will likely be one of the safeties—perhaps Brodney Pool.

DeSean Jackson is the rare type of receiver that Revis occasionally struggles with—the super speedy deep threat. Percy Harvin and Ted Ginn have had days that make the "Island" sink. The Jets will need to maintain possession against a defense that has great corners and not much else. Dustin Keller will need to have a big day, and the defense will need to limit the home runs.

Battle for MetLife Stadium

The Jets will need to exploit the Giants’ tendency toward mental mistakes to win. The Giants are contenders in every game, for better or worse (against Miami, it was worse). They have only had a single hundred yard rushing day so the Jets should focus on shutting down Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, and TE Jake Ballard rather than Ahmad Bradshaw or Brandon Jacobs.

The other goal will be to keep Sanchez clean. If he gets pressured like he did against the Ravens, this game could be as ugly.

Suck for Luck

To beat the Dolphins again, the Jets will need to say "present."