College Football: Colley Matrix Post-Halloween Rankings

Halloween has passed, but we cannot forget the hallowed grounds.

300 feet of turf separate the men from the wannabees. It partitions the asinine from the gentlemanly. It makes Oklahoma State look like it celebrates Halloween every day.

So, Halloween has a coincidental shade of orange with the Cowboys. Who gives a flip?

But what does Halloween have to do with Princeton? Everything.

Using the degrees of separation game, everything! Some years ago, Princeton grad Wes Colley made an unbiased matrix to make computer rankings for college football. One could say it was it was his way of releasing angst against the Bowl Championship Series.

Colley, like most fans, wants a more unbiased approach. Unlike some pollsters, Wes does not utilize margin of victory, conference reputations or home field advantage (which he thinks cannot be quantified) as ranking criterion. Instead, an adjusted team rating is taken into account. For example, pure mathematics would say that once Oregon lost to LSU in September, the Ducks rating would be zero percent—a rating that says your team is worth nothing.

Colley does not assume this, though. Instead, he gave the Ducks a .333 rating and the Tigers a .667 rating. Therefore, the numbers no longer say that LSU is infinitely better than Oregon. As a result, it is formulaically fair to each team.

In the upside down way the BCS has historically determined the national title contestants, the Matrix is a breath of fresh air. While Dan Wetzel crusades to end the demonic system through publicity of his critique, Death to the BCS, Colley takes a more currently applicable approach. Knowing that the status quo will exist until some Congress gets involved, this mathematician made his method compatible to the current scheme. The head honchos found his system so palatably fair that his formula was included in the BCS computer rankings. Here's an in-depth explanation of the Matrix. We will just be skimming the surface of Colley's (brilliant?) system, followed by my predictions for this weekend's games for the Top 30 teams.

As a result, Colley's rankings are relevant to the national title chase. And just like Jeff Sagarin's credo, Richard Billingsley's procedure, or USA Today's viewpoint, these placements are worth a look.

Who knows? Maybe you'll even agree with some of the rankings.

Those Who Just Missed the Cut: Top 30-26

30. Wisconsin

Oh, the controversy! Doesn't it seem surprising how UW lost on consecutive last minute touchdown passes two weeks in a row and the national title contender now finds itself in the rankings cellar? Everyone remembers how Wisconsin went all Smashing Pumpkins on the overmatched Nebraska. No doubt Cornhusker trick-or-treaters are still sullen over that defeat. On the other hand, the Badgers have the 88th ranked schedule in the nation, which has helped inflate the team's margin of victory in all its wins. Bret Bielema's quarterback Russell Wilson, though, provides enough eye candy for any depressed Wisconsin fan.

Next game projection: Wisconsin 41, Purdue 17

29. UNC

Everett Withers has kept off-the-field problems to a minimum for North Carolina for the second consecutive year. A respectable 6-3 record guarantees bowl eligibility, and UNC will likely get a bowl invitation with their 29^th ranked strength of schedule. What keeps the Tar Heels out of the Top 25 is their lack of victory against Top 25 competition. Think Georgia Tech and Clemson. The defense was disemboweled in those games, allowing an average of 47 points.

Next game projection: North Carolina 34, NC State 20

28. West Virginia

Nothing puzzling about this one. Last week’s loss at Syracuse made the Mountaineers look like a skid mark on the interstate. Sadly, it betrays the consistency of the team. WVU has won at least eight games a year for almost a decade. Dana Holgorsen’s offensive mind really must long for last season’s elite defense. How else would they allow LSU to score 47 on the defense in Morgantown? Even with 500 yards of offense, West Virginia only scored 21 points. With Holgorsen’s success, this team will be in the Top 25 before long.

Next game projection: WVU 28, Louisville 14

27. Cincinnati

Ever heard of the term “complesult?” Don’t consult a dictionary; the word doesn’t exist. I’ve invented it to describe a comment that is complementary and insulting at the same time. Here’s an example: Cincinnati is the worst one-loss team in America. Despite an undefeated record in Big East play, the Bearcats’ lone defeat speaks more volumes than their victories. Tennessee throttled these players in Neyland Stadium. The Volunteers have proceeded to go 0-5 in the SEC. Having a strength of schedule that is 120^th (that’s dead last among all FBS team) won’t win you much respect, either. Fortunately, the 1.86 turnovers per game will be an asset against Pittsburgh.

Next game prediction: Cincy 38, Pitt 13

26. Texas A&M

Where’s the 12^th Man? The Aggies play one of the most respectable dockets in the nation. College Station’s foes rank ninth in winning percentage nationally, posting victories in nearly 62 percent of games played. Yet—if you’ve heard anything on your sports network about A&M this year—quarterback Ryan Tannehill and crew have choked in three games where the team had halftime leads.

Most teams that emerge out of the woodwork one season will slip under high expectations. Recent examples include the 2008 Georgia Bulldogs and the 2009 Ole Miss Rebels. Still, Mike Sherman deserves praise for having Texas A&M to win the gridiron duels in which they’ve fallen. A shot for a top 15 ranking and 10-win season (though difficult to obtain) are certainly within reach.

Next game prediction: TAMU 17, Oklahoma 45

25. Arizona State

25. Arizona State  

The Sun Devils seniors are going to their first bowl ever. Legendary head coach Dennis Erickson must be proud of this year’s squad. When one considers the three consecutive non-winning seasons in Phoenix, Erickson has overcome the nadir of his career. Vontaze Burfict and the defense also deserve much praise. ASU has a two game lead over UCLA for the Pac-12 Championship. To put it simply, Arizona State is an upset away from their first Rose Bowl bid since the magical 1996 season.

Next game projection: ASU 31, UCLA 7

24. Georgia Tech

24. Georgia Tech

Paul Johnson’s success without top recruits is a testament to what he has done with the technical program’s football prowess. How does GT respond to whippings from middling ACC teams Virginia and Miami? The team goes and creams a top five national title contender. Earlier, Clemson had been the first ACC team to ever beat three consecutive ranked opponents.

In other words, these Tigers were not the inconsistent and over-hyped team you had gotten used to. With a victory against a fragile Virginia Tech team on the 10th, the Yellow Jackets will take the driver’s seat in the Coastal. Home field advantage goes to the triple-option offense, too. The Hokies are visiting Atlanta, but have more than a week to prep for Georgia Tech. That has been the Yellow Jackets' Achilles heel.

Next game projection: GT 28, VT 38

23. Auburn

23. Auburn

Although this year’s Auburn outfit is overshadowed by last year’s national champion, the Tigers will exceed the rock bottom expectations most had. With top talent, blowout losses to Clemson, Arkansas, and LSU will return to close victories. Gene Chizik and company are the highest ranked three-loss team in the Matrix.

Next game projection: Auburn 24, Georgia 28

22: Michigan State

22. Michigan State

Despite running into a brick wall at Nebraska, the Spartans October stretch really yielded pleasing results. Back-to-back-to-back wins against conference overlord Ohio State, “Big Brother” Michigan, and national contender Wisconsin earns the Spartans due respect. Their overall not-so-tough schedule (51st) keeps Mark Dantonio and State from sniffing the top 20 rankings.

Next game projection: MSU 20, Minnesota 7

21. Washington

21. Washington

Colley’s Matrix doesn’t take margin of victory into account. And considering how two weeks ago the Huskies allowed 446 yards on the ground alone by Stanford, and overall 600 total, that’s a very nice way to pretend such a blowout never occurred. Yowch!

Nevertheless, six victories bring the Huskies to bowl eligibility for the second straight year. Who knew that Keith Price would actually play better than Jake Locker?

Next game projection: Washington 27, Oregon 48

20. Southern Miss

20. Southern Miss

Southern Miss’s flabbergasting flop to Marshall is the only downside. Without that embarrassment early on, the Eagles would be talking about BCS bowl contention. A C-USA Championship with undefeated Southern Miss and unscathed Houston? It would have been a game for the ages, especially considering the fortes each has with offensive playmakers. Even with a 7-1 record and a shot at the conference title, having the 109th rated strength of schedule won’t earn many points in the Matrix.

Next game projection: SMU 37, ECU 14

19. Georgia

19. Georgia

Rejoice, O Bulldogs! For ye have overcome the worst of nemeses, the Gators! Mark Richt has bought himself at least another season on his contract after beating hated Florida. The Bulldogs have to run the table and have a South Carolina loss, but this team could win the SEC East. A six-game winning streak is tough to find in the cannibalistic SEC. Enjoy the win. Who knows? The Bulldogs may soon re-establish themselves as a national power.

Next game projection: Georgia 38, New Mexico State 0 (come on, UGA has no running backs)

18. Texas

18. Texas

The Longhorns have a lot of work to do to return to last decade’s form, but Texas has done extremely well against teams that are outside of Oklahoma. David Ash, Malcolm Brown, and Fozzy Whittaker lead a team that has the eigth toughest gauntlet in America, and still have UT at five wins. Considering these guys couldn’t even eat the cupcakes they played in 2010, this team is almost certain to finish ranked.

Next game projection: Texas 42, Texas Tech 28

17. USC

17. USC

The Pac-12 may have set USC up to fail (dodges fine thrown by commissioner Larry Scott). Stanford is a prime time team with the caliber of USC’s seven year dynasty. Nevertheless, Matt Barkley and the USC offense have grown since the near upset by Minnesota, and beating Notre Dame in South Bend always counts for something. No matter whether the Irish are strong or not, it’s a rivalry game. Anything could happen. The team still achieves despite NCAA sanctions, but the defense will haunt the squad for the duration of autumn.

Next game projection: USC 49, Colorado 21

16. Arkansas

16. Arkansas

How can a one-loss SEC team be ostracized from the top 15? Somehow, out of conference opponents have brought down the Hogs strength of schedule significantly. The Razorbacks have the 76th roughest table despite playing Texas A&M, Auburn, and Alabama. Guess Ole Miss, Vanderbilt, Troy, New Mexico, and Missouri State aren’t fierce enough. Even if the Razorbacks beat LSU to force a three-way tie in the SEC West, their strength of schedule will keep Bobby Petrino shut out of a BCS bowl game.

Next game projection: Arkansas 28, South Carolina 21

15. Oregon

15. Oregon

The Ducks have regrouped well since the LSU clash. Unfortunately, the Ducks only have a top 50 against 25th ranked Arizona State. The offense is worse than last year, considering the graduation/drafting of several offensive linemen. The defense needs to step up if fans expect a victory over Stanford, much less the Pac-12 Championship.

Next game projection: Oregon 48, Washington 27

14. Penn State

14. Penn State

Okay, Cincinnati. Penn State may be the worst one-loss team in America. The Nittany Lions don’t have a settled quarterback or a scoring offense that’s worth a double take, but the scoring defense is fourth nationally, and tops in the Big Ten. Will they win the Big Ten Leaders Division? With Nebraska and (more importantly) road games at Wisconsin and Ohio State in the way, probably not. Nevertheless, the faithful of Beaver Stadium can still have a ranked, 10-win team come January.

Next game projection: Nebraska 20, Penn State 17

13. Michigan

13. Michigan

Brady Hoke is a fundamentally sound coach. He’s also a Michigan Man; he has stopped emphasizing the spread and focused on traditional power running. With Denard Robinson’s versatility on the ground (and not in the air), it’s a go-figure. The seven wins in eight games is the fastest start for the Wolverines since the 2006 campaign that was as high as second in the country. In addition, the Maize have garnered as many wins as Rich Rodriguez’s 7-6 squad had last year.

Next game projection: Michigan 28, Iowa 31 (The Hawkeyes are undefeated at home and are angry about the Minnesota upset).

12. Kansas State

12. Kansas State

Bill Snyder’s second coming has not been as glorious as his first. Oklahoma totally demolished Kansas State’s hopes of rejoining the elite teams during their run a decade ago. The Wildcats will likely lose out the rest of November, but eight wins is still the most since 2003’s Big 12 Championship team.

Next game projection: Kansas State 21, Oklahoma State 55

11. South Carolina

11. South Carolina

Congratulations to the Gamecocks! This period of success in South Carolina history is unrivaled, notwithstanding a flash in the pan relevancy as an Independent in the 1980s.

Running back Marcus Lattimore’s loss will haunt the team less than many will think. Since Arkansas has trudged lazily (and almost lost) to seemingly overmatched foes and Florida is a train wreck, it is possible for Steve Spurrier’s underwhelming team to win out the season before facing Clemson.

We need to remember the Gamecocks are the quintessential example of falling apart in the second half of the season. Nevertheless, Steve Spurrier's players could have 10 (or even 11) victories before going to the SEC Championship Game. Talk about a banner year!

Next game prediction: South Carolina 21, Arkansas 28

10. Virginia Tech

10. Virginia Tech

Frank Beamer is nearing the twilight of his illustrious career. All the time he’s spent furnishing a respectable program, winning over 200 games, and popularizing Beamerball have made the Hokies the flagship school of the conference. Odds are the Hokies win the ACC Coastal for the fourth time in five years.

Georgia Tech, though, is coming off a stomping at home against Clemson, and host VT next Thursday. GT almost always loses when opponents have more than a week to prepare for the triple option monster Paul Johnson runs, so expect the Hokies to clinch the division on the 10th.

Next game projection: VT 38, GT 28

9. Nebraska

9. Nebraska

Being the relatively tender age of 19, the most I’ve known about the once-intimidating Blackshirts comes from my Cornhusker uncle. For the first time, I can see a glimpse of that maligned, top-notch defense Charlie McBride led back in the ‘90s. Michigan State was held without a touchdown for the first time since many moons ago.

Triumphs over the Buckeyes leave Nebraska’s fate in the Legends Division in their hands. It’s very possible this team could beat Wisconsin in a rematch for the Big 10 Championship, and go to their first Rose Bowl since 2001.

Next game projection: Nebraska 45, Northwestern 28

8. Houston

8. Houston

The computers give Houston respect. Maybe the humans will soon. By the end of the month, the Cougars will have likely pulverized respectable SMU and Tulsa. The strength of schedule undoubtedly will increase with such opponents. The question then is whether the Cougars can actually win the C-USA Championship against the best Southern Miss team in ages. Who knows? Until then, look for Case Keenum to score at least five touchdowns on UAB.

Next game projection: Houston 58, UAB 19

7. Clemson

7. Clemson

The ACC has a bad rap, but Clemson did become the first ACC team to beat three ranked schools consecutively. Why are the Tigers rated so low by humans?

Clemson's Opponents	Opponent's Rank at Gametime	Score
Auburn	#21	CU 38-24
FSU	#11	CU 35-30
VT	#11	CU 23-3

This isn’t the Tigers of old that promised much and delivered little. A bye week will ensure a victory over Wake Forest. The Demon Deacons, on the other hand, have no off-week as they get pounded by Notre Dame. Clemson will wrap up the ACC Atlantic title on November 12th.

Next game projection: Clemson 35, Wake Forest 28

6. Stanford

6. Stanford

The Cardinal have a number-one draft pick, but the best school west of the Mississippi has much to prove to be best in all the land. The triple-overtime classic against USC showed how vulnerable Andrew Luck’s team is to actual competition. Remember Boise State’s choking on field goals at Nevada last season?

Like that Broncos team, Stanford has a coddling schedule (72nd) and might trip up against Oregon and/or Notre Dame. Although rookie coach David Shaw has yet to fight an opponent of equal footing, my bet is that Stanford runs the table. Both the Ducks and the Fighting Irish visit Stanford, along with overmatched Cal who will pay a visit to be boiled alive. Even the trip to Corvallis isn’t that daunting, as Oregon State is no longer the Pac-12 wild card that ruins perfect seasons.

Next game projection: Stanford 41, Oregon State 14

5. Oklahoma

5. Oklahoma

How ‘bout them apples? Two weeks ago Texas Tech trumps Oklahoma in Norman, then last week proceeds to be manhandled by Iowa State in Lubbock. A casual observer (such as myself) would infer that the Sooners would look worse in the polls. Not only do voters value the thrashing Oklahoma gave K-State, but the computers give the Sooners the seventh toughest schedule in the country. By the way, the Sooners are the only team in the top 10 with a top 10 schedule. If Stanford falls and Bob Stoops wins another Bedlam game, the crystal football might go to Norman this year.

Next game projection: Oklahoma 45, Kansas State 17

4. Boise State

4. Boise State

Kellen Moore, an underappreciated recruit who only received scholarship offers from Idaho and Boise State, is now poised to be the quarterback with the most wins in major college football. 46 in under four seasons! Incredible—that's an average of 13 wins per year! After losing much talent from last year's 12-1 team, Moore is the glue that holds the Broncos together. Boise State will likely finished undefeated and reappear in the Fiesta Bowl. And we all know what happened last time they played Oklahoma.

Next game projection: Boise State 59, UNLV 17

3. Alabama

3. Alabama

Expected to see them higher, huh? Well, the Crimson Tide have Colley's 38th strongest schedule. Nevertheless, this version of Crimson make the 2009 championship team look like a bunch of rookies. Trent Richardson is probably more beast than Mark Ingram, and a big game performance is going to make him the obvious choice on everyone's Heisman ballot. Since Nick Saban has yet to lose a revenge game since 2001 (and the game being hosted in Bryant-Denny Stadium), 'Bama wins Game of the Century 2011 by a hair.

Next game projection: Alabama 28, LSU 24

2. LSU

2. LSU

Cajun style has never been so enthralling! LSU (if the Tigers lower the Tide) will win a national championship and be one of the best teams of all time. Everything that transpired against the Bayou Bengals early in the year has only led to a massive neutral site defeat of Oregon, Jarrett Lee's development as an elite quarterback, and Les Miles keeping track of time.

Unfortunately, for this die-hard Tiger fan (I almost went there, but in-state tuition was a factor in me choosing FSU) this hybrid squad of men and giants will settle for a Sugar Bowl victory.

Next game projection: LSU 24, Alabama 28

1. Oklahoma State

1. Oklahoma

No way, you say! But this Oklahoma State edition has weathered the crucible of an SEC-caliber schedule. While Mike Gundy does not have as many Top 25 victories as the Nick Saban's rolling Tide or former mentor Les Miles's set-the-field-on-fire Tigers, the "Oregon of the Midwest" has more victories against top 50 competition than either combatants in the Game of the Century (shockingly, LSU has three, Alabama has two). Peruse at the wanted men the Cowboys have tied up:

The Cowboys' Wrangled Top 50 Victims (Colley Ratings)

Overwhelmed Competition	Margin of Execution
#18 Texas	38-26
#26 Texas A&M	30-29
#34 Tulsa	59-33
#35 Louisiana-Lafayette	61-34
#38 Baylor	59-24
#41 Missouri	45-24

Many of you are applauding Heisman contenders Justin Blackmon and Brandon Weeden on the offense, but cringe at the defense's stats. This motley crew of orange conquerors is known for the 113th ranked defense, but have an outstanding turnover ratio—on track to produce more turnovers than anybody ever. Now, Oklahoma State still can slip up against Kansas State, Texas Tech, and Iowa State. Bedlam will be where the unscathed troupe hosts all-time arch rival Oklahoma, a game this emerging powerhouse can still win.

Will they end the other conferences' five-year SEC hostage crisis?

That's why we play the game.