College Football Bowls 2008/2009: Mitch's First Early Leans

As I look around the Internet, I see a lot of people making their bowl picks and BCS Bowl picks. I was wondering if I could borrow their crystal ball.

Fortunately or unfortunately, I know my readers and viewers of my videos expect a lot more from me than looking at a lineup of games and just saying who I think will win or cover. They want me to sit down and do the homework and show them why I am leaning one way or another.

While I'm not right all the time, and some weeks not right much of the time, most weeks I've done pretty well in the picking department, and I hope my analysis has been spot-on all the time. Regardless, I know that at The College Football Place, over 350,000 people a month stop by, and a good bulk of them really know their college football.

While not everyone is brave enough to enter my free picking contest, those that do as a unit have a much higher winning percentage than just about any expert out there. That in itself is a testament to the community we have formed.

I am hoping that tonight or possibly today I'll have a chance to send out the entries for the free bowl picking contest for those already signed up. For those not signed up yet, you have until the games kick off on Dec. 20. It's easy, free, and we even have prizes.

So with no picks in place, it doesn't mean I have come up with any opinions or leans as they are referred to, as I have several—some are stronger than others. While just because I'm leaning one way or another is no guarantee that is how my final pick ends up, it's generally a good indication.

Please keep in mind though that a few weeks ago in the forum I was leaning Alabama, and then when I did my homework and wrote up the pick, I ended up taking Florida. While it's rare, it happens, but when it does you are always given plenty of notice to move things around.

In any event, here are a few games I'm leaning one way or another and my reasoning. Please feel free to comment or hit the forum, as I've found when we do this together, the more we are all in agreement the better our record is. Our poll was well over 70 percent this season, probably North of 80 percent against the spread.

Here are a few games I've been looking at already and some early leans.

Texas Tech is a mere -5 1/2 against Ole Miss, dropping from the 7-7 1/2 range. I guess beating Florida at Florida several months ago means that much to Ole Miss, but it doesn't get held against the Gators too much?

I have yet to figure this one out, but the big argument and what is helping us out having to lay less points is people are under the impression that Ole Miss is a good team. This just in: They aren't. Ole Miss ranks 62nd in the country against the pass, and that's 11th in the SEC for those keeping score of SEC stats.

Anyone still like the Rebels' chances against Graham Harrell and company? Be my guest to step up to the betting window and knock the line down even further, because the rest of us are laughing at you.

Ole Miss beat a total of three bowl teams this year: the aforementioned Florida, LSU, and Memphis. Memphis was 6-6 with one of those coming against a I-AA opponent, and LSU was 7-5 with one win coming against a I-AA opponent. Texas Tech lost one game total in a brutal Big 12 this year. I think Houston Nutt's boys may be in over their heads by a ton in this mismatch.

Boston College is -3 against Vandy. This line has moved from -4. For those who didn't watch the second half of the season this year, Vandy lost six of their last seven games and barely made it to a bowl game. They even lost to Tennessee, which wasn't an easy thing to do this year—just ask the Wyoming Cowboys and their 120th-ranked defense.

In any event, BC went 9-4 and had won four straight before losing to Virginia Tech in the ACC championship. Many feel that if BC didn't suffer the late season injuries they had, they probably would have gone to a BCS Bowl game. Let me rephrase this so you understand it better: Their QB got knocked out and they played a guy with no experience and still managed some wins. BC with preparation in this one should easily dominate.

Also, for those looking at the conference matchup alone, the ACC got the best of the SEC this year, especially late in the season. Did I mention Vandy has the 104th-ranked offense and BC has the 18th-ranked defense? This may get ugly.

See the rest of Mitch's First leans of the 2008/2009 college bowl season.