Nebraska Football: Why Husker Fans Will Be Happy (or Sad) Against Michigan State

Nebraska faces Michigan State in Lincoln on Saturday and needs a win to keep any realistic hopes for a Big Ten Championship alive. A loss to the Spartans would leave Nebraska two games behind Michigan State and losing the head-to-head tiebreaker. A win, however, would equalize the conference records of the two teams, with Nebraska holding the tiebreaker.

So when you’re watching the game on Saturday, here are three things that will make Nebraska fans happy if they appear, and three that will make them sad.

Superman Shines

Coming into the game, most of the pre-game attention is focused on Taylor Martinez and what Michigan State’s vaunted defense will do to stop him. But if the Spartans put too much focus on Martinez, it could be Rex Burkhead who steals the show.

Burkhead is averaging over 100 yards per game, and an over-pursuing defense bent on stopping Martinez could open the door for Burkhead to have a real coming-out party on national television.

Cousins Gets Heated Up

The sack has been all but an endangered species for the Blackshirts in 2011. But in Kirk Cousins, Nebraska is facing one of the few pocket passers on its schedule. Generally speaking, Bo Pelini’s defenses have fared much better in attacking quarterbacks who aren’t prone to using their legs to hurt opponents. If NU can get pressure on Cousins, it can take pressure off its work-in-progress secondary and match Michigan State defense for defense.

High Risk Means Low Reward for Sparty

Michigan State’s defense has made a living by being aggressive. But if Nebraska is able to use that aggressiveness against the Spartans, an opportunity exists for NU to have significant success on offense. If Tim Beck can keep Taylor Martinez in situations where he can be successful—specifically, not asking him to make extended downfield reads or throw into zone coverage—then Nebraska’s offensive speed coupled with an over-aggressive Michigan State defense could produce some surprising results.

Baker Gets to Gashing

In many ways, Edwin Baker has been something of a disappointment for Michigan State fans. Touted at the start of the season as a darkhorse Heisman candidate, Baker has seen his role in the offense reduced as the Spartans have transitions to more of a passing attack. But Baker still is a talented and dangerous back, and Nebraska has struggled at times to stop a powerful rushing attack. If Baker finds his feet in Lincoln, it makes stopping Kirk Cousins that much more difficult.

Cousins Find His Feet

No one really thinks of Kirk Cousins as a rushing threat at quarterback. But no one really thought of Texas’ Garrett Gilbert as a rushing threat. Nor Fresno State’s Derek Carr. But both of those “pocket passer” quarterbacks got loose against the Blackshirts and gave NU’s defense fits.

Cousins isn’t going to fool anyone into thinking he’s Tommie Frazier. But he’s athletic enough to cause Nebraska all kinds of damage on the ground if NU’s defense leaves the door open.

The Comeback Was the Fluke

Nebraska fans are hanging their new-found optimism on the last quarter-and-a-half against Ohio State (because, let’s face it, even the most ultra Nebraska fan realizes that NU’s win over a dreadful Minnesota team didn’t mean much). But remember that NU was down 27-6 in the third quarter of that game, with Ohio State’s defense completely bottling up Nebraska’s offensive attack. Also remember that the comeback needed a turnover and an injury to Ohio State’s quarterback for Nebraska to escape with a win.

So which is the real Nebraska? If it’s the Nebraska of the first six quarters of Big Ten play, instead of the second six quarters, Saturday could be a long day for the Children of the Corn.

Fearless Forecast

Michigan State has, statistically, one of the best defenses in the nation. The Spartans are on a roll, having beaten Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin in three consecutive weeks. Nebraska, on the other hand, needed a miracle finish (and a dreadful backup Buckeye quarterback) to knock off Ohio State and keep its conference title hopes alive.

If the game was in East Lansing, there’s no question who would be the favorite. But asking Michigan State to come to Lincoln, after running the gauntlet of the previous three weeks, and facing an offense that has worn down opponents not named Wisconsin is a tall order.

The oddsmakers didn’t do Nebraska any favors by installing the Cornhuskers as favorites. But the home field advantage, combined with an offense that NU’s defense is better suited to frustrate, makes me lean slightly towards Nebraska. For investment purposes, Sparty looks great, but it looks like NU wins another thriller.

Nebraska 20, Michigan State 17