Saints vs. Rams: Why New Orleans Shouldn't Take St. Louis Lightly

One might think the absence of Sam Bradford, a defense playing as poor as any other in the league and a team coming off a 27-point loss would be an absolute piece of cake for a team coming off a 55-point margin of victory. 

Heck, if you total that range, the difference is 82 points. Of course, that measure really does not help us at all. 

First off, football is not a sport where the transitive property means anything. Football is all matchups. It is a misconception to say that because Team X beat Team Y that Team Z will also beat Team Y. Again, it's all about matchups.

Am I saying St. Louis is going to beat New Orleans this weekend? NO. Heck no!

What I am saying is this: The Saints better come ready to play Sunday, or the expected margin of victory—currently odds-makers have the Saints as a 13.5 point underdog (average of five sports books)—will not be quite so high. 

Last time the Saints strolled into St. Louis was Week 10 of 2009. The team was also starting a veteran also-ran QB—that year Marc Bulger. That game was one of the scarier games the Saints played that season. 

Though Reggie Bush ran all over the Rams defense, the Saints simply allowed the Rams to hang in and hang in, to the point the Rams actually had a hailmary heave at the end that could have won them the game.

If that game isn't enough to insight fear into the Saints' hearts, so should the Rams' 0-6 record. Last season, the Rams were 6-10. It all adds up to a team that is due and is desperate. 

And if that isn't enough, how about this? Steven Jackson. Without Sam Bradford healthy, the Saints seem destined to face a heavy dose of the beast of a man running between and just outside the tackles. 

To slow down Jackson, the Saints must bring Roman Harper into the box as an eighth defender and allow him to blitz when Jackson doesn't get the football. Of course, having an eighth guy does not guarantee a defense will stop the run. 

Therefore it is imperative that the defensive tackles continue to penetrate gaps, and the linebackers fill in the holes. If Roman Harper ends up as the leading tackler, so be it. Stopping the Rams offense is more important than how it gets done. 

Playing that eight-man box will create one-on-one matchups on the outside. If Sam Bradford were slated to play, this would be a little more dangerous proposition since Brandon Lloyd is now one of the men who the Saints corners will be going against. 

But getting significant pressure on A.J. Feeley, with that banged up line, ought to again cause multiple sacks and/or turnovers. 

When the Saints are on offense, there shouldn't be much reason to worry. The Rams defense was pretty bad last week at Dallas.

The only real reason to worry is because of another mathematical/scientific-type theory—this one the law of averages. Surely, the Saints offense will not play nearly as well Sunday as it did in the dome last Sunday night. And it's highly unlikely the Rams defense will play at the same atrocious level it displayed just a week ago. 

But schematically, there a few things to keep in mind. First, the Rams do like to blitz. They blitz almost as often as Gregg Williams and the Saints defense. Keeping Drew Brees clean and healthy is priority No. 1 this weekend. 

Second, the Rams corners are banged up, so the Saints should try to isolate receivers Marques Colston, Lance Moore, Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem as often as possible. 

But if Chris Long and Co. are able to get any significant pressure on Drew Brees, he will be forced to check down to Darren Sproles and Pierre Thomas. Both are great matchups; neither provide the maximum benefit that a deeper throw to a receiver would. 

It should also be noted that the Rams gave up over 250 yards rushing a week ago against Dallas, and of course, the Saints rushed for for over 200 themselves, meaning Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles ought to be seeing a ton of rushing attempts this week, even if the success of those attempts isn't immediate. 

On special teams, the Rams are one of the few teams who hold a potential advantage in the kicking game over the Saints. It's not that punter Donnie Jones is superior to Thomas Morstead; he certainly is not. 

But Josh Brown might be the best kicker in the entire league right now. So if the Rams are able to move the ball at all on the Saints, and somehow hold the Saints offense down, Josh Brown suddenly becomes a key player in this game—just as he was two years ago in this matchup. 

Lastly, the crowd. Depending upon the final resolution of the World Series, the St. Louis fans could be beaming with excitement or largely dead. As we saw in Tampa two weeks ago, the Saints thrive on energy and struggle when the place is dead.

It's possible a home field advantage for St. Louis would actually occur by the dome being so dead it simply lulls the Saints to sleep.

So if you're watching the World Series, I guess you should be rooting for the Cardinals, assuming that will boost the energy level of the Rams crowd (I'm still personally rooting for the Rangers because I'm a Cubs fan).

Either way, it's up to the Saints to come to play Sunday. There isn't a lot of reason to think the Rams can compete, but weirder things have happened before.