NFL Fantasy Football: Working The Matchups For Week 15

Ok, you're settled in. The playoffs have started in every league as of this week. It's either semi-finals, or opening round for those of you that use Week 17. The time has come to figure out what to exploit this week. Who do you start and who do you bench, and should your strategy change. Let's sort it out. 

Prepare for Life Without Star Running Backs 

Not a good week for running backs last week, as Brandon Jacobs and Frank Gore both left with injuries before the final whistle sounded. Doesn't look like Jacobs will see much practice time this week, and he is being evaluated daily.

Gore is being given the same treatment. He has an ankle sprain, and wants to play in Miami since he went to school there. Even if he does, Miami has been very good against the run for the last four weeks, holding opponents around 100 yards per game and largely keeping them out of the end zone. 

Marion Barber is likely going to be around after being called out by owner Jerry Jones. If Tashard Choice is available, I'd still look to him as a flex play in all formats. Barber is going to make this hard. I'm skeptical in using him unless there is an assurances that he's healthy from practice and injury reports. 

What's the approach? I like Derrick Ward more than Ahmad Bradshaw in New York, especially in PPR leagues. I've read several analysts that predict that Jacobs won't play the whole game, even if he is healthy. The Giants have nothing to gain by pushing him. 

With Gore, I'd be prepared to not have him available. The 49ers are officially out of it, so why push their star back? Shaun Hill has been playing well, and isn't giving them reason not to throw. 

I'd look to add Ward, for certain, if I owned Jacobs. If he isn't available, or you need to protect Frank Gore, I like Cadillac Williams against the Falcons this week, Maurice Morris against St. Louis, and Leon Washington against Buffalo. These backs make good plays regardless.  

PPR leagues will enjoy Ward, but the Giants may compensate for Jacobs by throwing the ball more against a poor Dallas secondary. 

Some Rough Matchups Ahead 

Not only are there injuries, there are also some bad matchups for top-tier running backs. 

Marshawn Lynch will draw a tough Jets defense. If you have better options at your disposal, that's one thing. Lynch, though, is being used more as a receiver out of the backfield and will still generate value there. It bodes well that Fred Jackson saw no touches against Miami. 

Don't reach for Tim Hightower this week against the Vikings. Minnesota is very stingy against the run, and Hightower hasn't produced with worse defenses on the other side of the ball. Keep him out of your lineup this week. The Cardinals will look to throw and throw often against a weak Minnesota secondary.

Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas draw the Chicago defense. They haven't given up many yards per game, and are holding opposing backs under three yards-per-carry. Given the choice, I'll take Bush here. Thomas is basically a hand-off back, while Bush brings a different dynamic to the offense. Keep Thomas down if you can. 

Other Tough Plays

Matt Ryan faces the Tampa defense. They were shredded on the ground by Carolina, not as much via the air. Don't look for Ryan to lead a playoff team to victory this week. I'd use Roddy White, but other receivers don't hold the appeal. 

Jacksonville loses Matt Jones, making it a tough go for David Garrard. The Packers are bad against the run, but have been decent against the pass. With Jones down, look for the Jaguars to utilize Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones-Drew much more often than they normally would. 

Steve Slaton, Kevin Walter, and Matt Schaub are up against the Tennessee defense. They are tough against just about everyone, and this will be no exception. I'm not playing the rookie come playoff time here against one of the best defenses in football. 

Joe Flacco has the Steelers. If you were starting Flacco, you likely aren't in the playoffs anyway. Point remains, stay away from this one. 

Randy Moss will matchup against Nnamdi Asomugha in Oakland. Yeah, not one to bet on here. You may not have better options, but Wes Welker is going to have a much better day than Moss. 

Favorable Starts 

I'm not concerned about Eli Manning and his receivers against Dallas. Even without Plaxico Burress, they won't have a problem throwing on the Cowboys. 

I'm keeping all my Eagles around, too. Donovan McNabb, DeSean Jackson, Kevin Curtis, and L.J. Smith are all competing with a Browns team that simply doesn't seem to care. If you can start their defense, that's all the better. 

Zach Miller could be in for a good day against a defense that is scraping the bottom when it comes to linebackers. Looks like Tedy Bruschi will miss the rest of the season, and that only makes this matchup better. The Patriots struggled with Seneca Wallace, that may be all you need to know. 

Speaking of Wallace, I'm not thrilled with him as a play unless you're REALLY desperate, but it won't stop me from recommending John Carlson and Deion Branch this week. St. Louis is just that bad. 

We'll break more down tomorrow as we get into the early games for Week 15.