UFC 137 Fight Card: 3 Reasons Nick Diaz Will Defeat B.J. Penn

The road leading up to UFC 137 has been fraught with speculations and innuendos, with regards to the demise of Nick Diaz at the hands of B.J. Penn.

But, I beg to differ.

Some are expecting this to be a walk in the park for the former lightweight and welterweight UFC champion—a foregone conclusion—Diaz might as well not show up for the event.

Whether Diaz has or hasn’t fought the same calibre of fighters akin to Penn, the fact remains that Diaz is the former Strikeforce welterweight champion and that should be taken into account and not swept under carpet.

Contrary to the word on the street, this fight could go either way.

Nevertheless, once the gate of the Octagon is closed, Diaz will prove his naysayers wrong. This will be Diaz’ night, and that’s my prognostication, of that I’m certain.

Listed are three reasons why.

3. Grappling and Jiu-Jitsu Factor

Wrestling is the one glaring chink in Diaz’ armor, while Penn excels at it and will attempt to utilize it to his advantage.

Penn can get the better of Diaz in this department, but only if Diaz allows him to. The factor here will be Diaz’ size, in comparison to Penn’s smaller frame.

If Diaz can’t nullify Penn’s wrestling attributes, then he’ll have to contest part of the match fighting on his back.

Both Diaz and Penn are accomplished Jiu-Jitsu practitioners with 14 subs between them, but neither fighter has been submitted in their respective careers.

A tough call to make, but if the Cesar Gracie fighter can wear down "The Prodigy" with his relentless style, then expect to see Penn suffer his first submission lost.

2. The Cardio Factor

Penn’s cardio and the fact that he gasses during fights has been well-documented.

And if the truth be told, this is the one area where Penn fails on a gigantic scale—it’s his Achilles heel.

The 209 son has cardio through the roof and will capitalize on Penn’s lack thereof, especially if the fight goes into the second and final rounds.

Penn is no slouch and will bring it as much as Diaz—one step backwards five steps forwards.

Be that as it may, if Diaz can force Penn to work at his pace—whether that be stand up, Penn’s take down attempts or working off his back—Penn’s insufficient cardio will soon rear its ugly head.

And once Penn’s cardio begins to falter, the win for Diaz is there for the taking.

1. Striking/Boxing Factor

It’ll be very intriguing if this fight stays standing, and I think it will.

Both combatants are well schooled in the art of pugilism (MMA level that is), but I’ll give Diaz the upper hand.

Howbeit Penn is a powerful puncher, he doesn’t have the KO power that Diaz possesses and he sure doesn’t hit as hard as Paul “Semtex” Daley, who had the Stockton native in trouble when they threw down more than seven months ago.

A fight which turned out to be Diaz’ last hurrah for the recently acquired Zuffa based company, Strikeforce.

There’s no way Penn’s going to lullaby Diaz to sleep.

Diaz will use his jab, which in turn will compliment his advantageous reach to distract "The Prodigy."

I expect Diaz to follow up with counters and his trade mark arsenal— punches in bunches—call it a flurry, but it does what it says on the tin. He’ll keep Penn at bay and off balance.

Whether this results in a KO/TKO is another matter altogether.

Though, one thing to bear in mind is that Diaz is riding a 10-fight win streak and six via TKO.