Green Bay Packers-Houston Texans: The Packers' Playoffs Hopes Drop Dead

Okay, the Packers are not mathematically eliminated. In fact, the schedule is about as conducive to the Packers making the playoffs as it can be.

The Packers have literally no chance of winning a Wild Card entry. The Cowboys, Buccaneers, and Falcons, all of whom beat the Packers, have eight wins already, the most the Packers could get, and at least two of them will not win the division. Ergo, the two wild card spots will be taken by them or someone else besides Green Bay.

Thus, we need to examine the chances of the Packers winning the division since that is the only way the season does not end December 28. Because the Vikings already have eight wins, the Packers need to reach that mark to have a chance for things to come down to tie-breakers, which the Packers would win against both Minnesota and Chicago.

The Packers are favourites against Jacksonville this week even though the Jaguars have the potential to gash the Packers run defense, so this has to be a less than 60 percent chance of winning. The Packers dominated the Bears in the first game with almost as depleted a roster, but the Bears clearly did not play the way they should and will be at home; this one has to be less than 50 percent.

If the Packers have something to play for in the final week, the Lions are not winning in Lambeau Field without divine intervention even if they are desperately looking for their first win.

Then Minnesota has to lose out. The Vikings have to play three teams with an equal or better record the rest of the way, and all could certainly be fighting for something when they match up. Minnesota will be without their Pro Bowl tackles and may be without Gus Frerotte, who injured his back against Detroit. But Tarvaris Jackson played well in relief and Frerotte is no stud, so unlike losing the "Williams brothers," that is not much of a loss.

At best, I would say the Vikings' chances of losing are over 60 percent against the Cardinals, under 50 percent against the Falcons, and at best 70 percent against the Giants because while there is a good chance they will have home field advantage wrapped up by then, we know it is Tom Coughlin's style to play to win even meaningless games.

Meanwhile, the Bears would still need to lose a game outside of the match-up against the Packers. This week, they face a Saints team that could have trouble passing even against the weak Chicago pass defense thanks to the Soldier Field weather on a Thursday night; this one is a 50/50 game. In their final week, they are in Houston, a team that plays fairly well at home and could exploit the Bears pass defense; perhaps this one is 50/50, too.

Do the math:

Green Bay has less than a 30 percent chance of winning out, Minnesota just over a 20 percent chance of losing out, and the Bears have about a 75 percent chance of losing one of the two that are not against the Packers. That means the Packers chances of winning the division are under five percent.

Does this strike you as a team that can overcome long odds? Is this even a team you want to see in the playoffs, where they would certainly face a better team in the first round?

In the past two weeks alone, they have found ways to lose. All four areas of the team—offense, defense, special teams, and coaching—have broken down in the last two weeks alone.

The offense has been slow to start and failed to pick up key yardage at key times. Until Aaron Rodgers showed the leadership and maturity to recognize a run that would work, the Packers were 0-9 on third down against a questionable Texans defense. The week before against a great Carolina defense, they suddenly could not pick up one yard in two plays at the goal line.

The defense gave up a lot of yards on the ground in both games and played a toreador defense against Houston in their final possession and much of the game, yielding over 550 yards. The previous week, Carolina gashed them for a couple big plays through the air, including one in which the defense should have been guarding most against in the final minute with a three-point lead.

The Packers special teams looked horrible both weeks. Against Carolina, the kick coverage allowed two long returns, including one that set up the winning score. Against Houston, it allowed a punter to run for a first down on a broken play.

Penalties also continue to be a problem, showing a lack of discipline that reflects poorly on the coaching staff. Furthermore, Coach Mike McCarthy has made horrible decisions in the shadow of the goalposts in the final minutes of both games.

Against Houston with the defense on the field, he called a timeout after a first down stop, effectively giving Houston an extra clock stoppage on their final drive instead of waiting until he was sure the Packers would hold the Texans and get the ball back. Against Carolina, he called two predictable runs up the middle when Rodgers was hot (three second half touchdown drives), killing a drive at the one.

But look on the bright side, Packers fans: no one can question this team's unity. Everyone is playing part in this historic collapse.