College Football: Analyzing Top Teams' Paths to BCS National Championship Game

It is almost the last weekend in October.

The first BCS rankings came out over a week ago, and since then, a number of major shakeups have occurred, as both Oklahoma and Wisconsin fell from the ranks of the unbeaten.

Now, as we head into the final five weeks of the regular season, a few teams have separated themselves from the pack and have a realistic shot of earning a bid to the BCS National Championship Game.

Needless to say, some have a more realistic shot than others, and some will have a tougher time only because the nature of early season rankings, and that the BCS in general, are tainted.

That being said, the following slideshow will look at the teams that still entertain a hope of making the big game.

Of course, there are teams that aren't included in this article, but most of those require more dominoes to fall than are worth considering.

LSU Tigers

Current Record: 8-0.

Current BCS Ranking: 1

Remaining Schedule: Nov. 5: At Alabama Crimson Tide, Nov. 12: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers, Nov. 19: At Ole Miss, Nov. 26: Arkansas, Dec. 3: SEC Championship.

Outlook

Pretty simple.

Win out and there is no way LSU will be left out of the National Championship Game.

All things considered, the schedule sets up nicely for the Tigers. They have two huge dates remaining in their regular season, both of which are cushioned by what should be easy wins.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Current Record: 8-0

Current BCS Ranking: 2

Remaining Schedule: Nov. 5: LSU, Nov. 12: At Mississippi State, Nov. 19: Georgia Southern (FCS), Nov. 26: At Auburn, Dec. 3: SEC Championship.

Outlook

Same as LSU. Win out and nothing will keep the Tide out of the National Championship Game.

Also, as with LSU, the schedule sets up nicely. LSU and Auburn are the big games that are cushioned by two games that Bama should safely win.

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Current Record: 7-0

Current BCS Ranking: 3

Remaining Schedule: October 29: Baylor, Nov. 5: KSU, Nov. 12: At Texas Tech, Nov. 19: At Iowa State, Dec. 3: Oklahoma Sooners.

Outlook

Either LSU or Bama will lose one game this year.

If Oklahoma State can win out, they will probably go to the National Championship Game.

The one glitch is the lack of a conference championship game. That absence might be enough to vault an unbeaten Stanford or Clemson over OSU.

However, the Cowboys are helped out by the fact that they do have a game on championship weekend, and it will be against a strong Oklahoma squad.

Still, the final BCS poll could be a nailbiter if both OSU and Stanford and/or Clemson are unbeaten.

Due to this, Oklahoma State needs to root for Oklahoma to win the rest of its games heading into Bedlam. That would make a win over the Sooners much more impressive to both computers and voters.

Boise State Broncos

Current Record: 7-0

Current BCS Ranking: 4

Remaining Schedule: Nov. 5: At UNLV, Nov. 12: TCU, Nov. 19: At San Diego State, Nov. 26: Wyoming, Dec. 3: New Mexico.

Outlook

It would be untrue to say that BSU has no shot of making the National Championship Game.

However, it is a very long shot.

Basically, all of the top contenders minus one have to lose at least two games, while Boise State has to win out and win convincingly.

If that happens, the BCS would be hard pressed to ignore the Broncos.

However, outside of that unlikely scenario, Boise State will not be in contention to make the National Championship.

Clemson Tigers

Current Record: 8-0

Current BCS Ranking: 5

Remaining Schedule: October 29: At Georgia Tech, Nov. 12: Wake Forest, Nov. 19: At North Carolina State, Dec. 26: At South Carolina, Dec. 3: ACC Championship Game.

Outlook

Would somebody please explain to me why Boise State is ranked above Clemson? In the end, it won't matter, as if both teams win out, Clemson will leapfrog the Broncos.

That said, Clemson will have to win out to make the big game. They will also need Oklahoma State to lose.

The question is how would an unbeaten Stanford play into this scenario? Is Stanford's slightly more difficult schedule going forward—and the notoriety of having Andrew Luck in the National Championship Game—enough to vault Stanford above Clemson?

If both are undefeated, it will be a close call.

Stanford Cardinal

Current Record: 7-0

Current BCS Ranking: 6

Remaining Schedule: October 29: At USC, Nov. 5: At Oregon State, Nov. 12: Oregon, Nov. 19: California, Dec. 26: Notre Dame, Dec. 3: Pac-12 Championship Game.

Outlook

The Cardinal need to win out, and they need Oklahoma State to lose. Also, as previously mentioned, they may or may not have enough juice to vault over an unbeaten Clemson.

Either way, they had an easy early part of the season. Now, things get very difficult.

Oregon Ducks

Current Record: 6-1

Current BCS Ranking: 7

Remaining Schedule: October 29: Washington State, Nov. 5: At Washington, Nov. 12: At Stanford, Nov. 19: USC, Dec. 26: Oregon State, Dec. 3: Pac-12 Championship Game.

Outlook

The Ducks have to win out.

They also need Clemson, Oklahoma State and Kansas State to lose.

The first two are obvious, but Kansas State is also a threat to the Ducks chances for a repeat bid to the National Championship Game.

This is because the Wildcats play a tougher schedule than the Ducks from here going forward. If K-State beats Oklahoma this weekend and Oklahoma State next weekend, they will leapfrog Oregon.

At that point, Oregon will have to play catch-up and hope the voters and computers take their side.

The Pac-12 Championship Game might help given that KSU will play Iowa State on Dec. 3. Still, by that point, the Wildcats could be too far ahead for the Ducks to catch up.

It would also help the Ducks if LSU—their one loss this season—wins out.

Kansas State Wildcats

Current Record: 7-0

Current BCS Ranking: 8

Remaining Schedule: October 29: Oklahoma, Nov. 5: At Oklahoma State, Nov. 12: Texas A&M, Nov. 19: At Texas, Dec. 3: Iowa State.

Outlook

The Wildcats find themselves behind one team with a loss basically because they began the year unranked. That's the way it goes in the wild and absurd world of the BCS, but if the Wildcats sweep their next three games, they will find themselves in the Top Five.

If they do indeed get by OU, OSU and TAMU, the rest of their schedule looks relatively winnable. However, they will still need both Clemson and Stanford to lose if they are to get to the championship game.

It won't help that the Big 12 is without a conference championship game, and K-State will play Iowa State on Dec. 3—a matchup that won't help them at all in the rankings.

Oklahoma Sooners

Current Record: 6-1

Current BCS Ranking: 9

Remaining Schedule: October 29: At Kansas State, Nov. 5: Texas A&M, Nov. 19: At Baylor, Nov. 26: At Iowa State, Dec. 3: At Oklahoma State.

Outlook

All hope is not yet lost for the Sooners, but obviously, they have to depend on a lot of things to go right in order to get to the National Championship Game.

Firstly, they have to win out. Secondly, they need all but one of the following teams to lose a game between now and December 3: LSU, Alabama, Clemson, Stanford, Oregon and K-State. Obviously, in this scenario, K-State would have to lose to Oklahoma.

Finally—and this might be tough for OU fans to swallow—Oklahoma State has to be 11-0 heading into the Bedlam game. That's right, Sooner fans will have to root for the Cowboys for the next month.

If OSU is undefeated, they would be the No. 2 team in the nation on December 3. In effect, an Oklahoma win would boost their strength of schedule and vault them up in the polls.

It is true that a lack of a conference championship game could hurt the Sooners, but the fact that Bedlam will be on the same date as the other championship games should alleviate that to a large degree.

Arkansas Razorbacks

Current Record: 6-1

Current BCS Ranking: 10

Remaining Schedule: October 29: At Vanderbilt, Nov. 5: South Carolina, Nov. 12: Tennessee, Nov. 19: Mississippi State, Nov. 26: At LSU, Dec. 3: SEC Championship Game.

Outlook

Again, a long shot, but possible.

First of all, Arkansas needs to win out. Secondly, LSU needs to beat Bama. Thirdly, Bama needs to lose to Auburn or Mississippi State.

Arkansas then needs all but one of Clemson, Stanford, Oregon, Oklahoma, KSU and Oklahoma State to lose one game between now and the end of the regular season.

Then, and only then, can the Hogs sneak into the BCS National Championship Game.

Michigan State Spartans

Current Record: 6-1

Current BCS Ranking: 11

Remaining Schedule: October 29: At Nebraska, Nov. 5: Minnesota, Nov. 12: At Iowa, Nov. 19: Indiana, Nov. 26: At Northwestern, Dec. 3: Big Ten Championship Game.

Outlook

It's a really long shot, but it is possible.

First of all, the Spartans have to win out.

Secondly, it would help them tremendously if Wisconsin, Notre Dame and Michigan win out the rest of their games. If that were the case, MSU would replay the Badgers in the conference championship, which they would have to win.

At that point, they need a number of chips to fall, in any of a number of different ways, but here is one scenario.

LSU wins out, which would eliminate Arkansas. Bama would have to lose to both LSU and somebody else, as a one-loss MSU will not leapfrog a one-loss Bama.

Oklahoma State will have to lose two games. Meanwhile, both Oklahoma and K-State will have to lose one between now and the end of the season, as a one-loss MSU probably would leapfrog a one-loss Wildcat team if the timing of the loss were right.

Meanwhile, Clemson would have to lose two (or one in a huge upset). Stanford would have to beat Oregon, which, in this scenario would leave Stanford No. 2 and MSU No. 3 heading into Dec. 3.

If MSU beat the Badgers and Stanford lost the Pac-12 title game to any team from the Southern Division, the Spartans would jump over the Cardinal and into the title game against LSU.

Again, it is a very long shot, and would require at least four fairly major upsets (Clemson, Bama, Oklahoma State and Oklahoma), but it is possible.

Houston Cougars

Current Record: 7-0

Current BCS Ranking: 17

Remaining Schedule: October 27: Rice, Nov. 5: At UAB, Nov. 10: At Tulane, Nov. 19: SMU, Nov. 25: At Tulsa, Dec. 3: C-USA Championship Game.

Outlook

The Cougars have no chance of making the BCS National Championship Game, In fact, even if they go undefeated, they will have a tough time making a BCS bowl.

Still, I felt their undefeated record was worthy of note, and really, has Boise State done that much to specifically warrant being ranked fourth, while Houston is 13 spots back with the same record?

I know, I'm obsessive, but that doesn't mean I'm not right.