BCS Rankings Week 9: Breaking Down Top Contenders To Beat SEC for National Title

At this point, it's pretty clear that either LSU or Alabama will play in the BCS National Championship Game. Those two will meet in an epic clash in Tuscaloosa on November 5th, the winner of which will likely go on to win the SEC and attempt to bring the crystal football back to college football's strongest conference for the sixth year in a row.

But which team is most likely to oppose the Tigers or the Crimson Tide in New Orleans on January 9th? And, perhaps just as importantly, which one would have the best chance to win?

The field is still pretty wide open, but these seven teams appear to be the front-runners in the race to give the SEC champion a run for its bowl money.

Rank	Team	BCS Average
1	LSU	.9702
2	Alabama	.9627
3	Oklahoma State	.9240
4	Boise State	.8302
5	Clemson	.8240
6	Stanford	.8124
7	Oregon	.6877
8	Kansas State	.6681
9	Oklahoma	.6642
10	Arkansas	.6581
11	Michigan State	.538
12	Virginia Tech	.534
13	South Carolina	.501
14	Nebraska	.439
15	Wisconsin	.433
16	Texas A&M	.428
17	Houston	.368
18	Michigan	.342
19	Penn State	.307
20	Texas Tech	.201
21	Arizona State	.163
22	Georgia	.159
23	Auburn	.131
24	Texas	.119
25	West Virginia	.073

Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State is sitting pretty at No. 3 in the BCS rankings, just waiting for LSU and Alabama to beat the snot out of each other in two weeks.

The computers love the Cowboys, with all but one putting them atop the heap, and figure to shower them with even more praise if they win out.

That will be no easy task for the Pokes, who will finish out the season with a rather brutal slate, punctuated by a trip to No. 20 Texas Tech and home games against No. 8 Kansas State and No. 9 Oklahoma in the Bedlam game.

Even if the Pokes win out, they'll be hard-pressed to put up points against a fast, physical defense like the ones that LSU and Alabama run out every week. Granted, the Tigers and the Tide won't have seen an offense with quite the sort of firepower that Brandon Weeden, Justin Blackmon and Joseph Randle bring to the table.

Then again, LSU didn't have too much trouble shutting down Oregon's prolific attack, nor did 'Bama with Arkansas'.

Meanwhile, the Pokes' D doesn't exactly strike fear into the hearts of its enemies, nor is it likely to do so to Jarrett Lee and AJ McCarron, who play against talented defenses almost every week.

Oklahoma

The Sooners have some work to do to get back into the conversation, but might actually pose a bigger challenge to the SEC than would their in-state rivals.

A 41-38 home loss to Texas Tech dropped Oklahoma to No. 9 in the BCS rankings and exposed the vulnerability of its defense against high-flying offenses.

To be fair, there aren't many units capable of shutting down the Red Raiders or even the Missouri Tigers, who put a scare into the Sooners in Norman earlier this season.

If the Sooners get their act together and win out, they may yet finish the season as the best one-loss team in college football. Wins over No. 8 Kansas State, No. 16 Texas A&M and No. 3 Oklahoma State would render OU's resume irresistible to the computers and might even be good enough to vault them ahead of the likes of Boise State, Clemson and Stanford if those teams stay undefeated.

Once the Sooners get to New Orleans, they might actually match up pretty well against either LSU or Alabama. Neither team sports the sort of prolific attack that has given Oklahoma's defense fits so far.

And while Landry Jones and Ryan Broyles would undoubtedly have some trouble finding room to operate, they should be able to produce just enough to stay in the game while Travis Lewis and the Sooners' D tees off on the other side.

Stanford

Tough. Efficient. Relentless.

These words could all describe Stanford as easily as they could LSU or Alabama.

With a 65-21 win over Washington on Saturday, the Cardinal became the first team since the advent of polls in college football to win 10 games in a row by 25 points or more.

And it's no fluke, either, with impressive margins against bad teams (Oregon State, UCLA, Arizona) and good (Virginia Tech, U-Dub) alike.

All the while, Stanford has been stewarded by the precise passing of Andrew Luck and a distinctive physicality in the trenches that Jim Harbaugh spent years instilling in the program.

Running the table the rest of the way will be no easy task for the Trees, not with a trip to USC and home games against No. 7 Oregon, Cal and Notre Dame still on tap. This goes without mentioning a potential berth in the inaugural Pac-12 Championship Game.

But if the Cardinal can pull it off, they'll be as well positioned as any team in college football to take down an SEC challenger. They may not have the "athletes," per se, but they're good enough, smart enough and, gosh darn it, people like them.

All kidding aside, Stanford can play smash-mouth football with the best of them, irrespective of regional ties.

Oregon

I know, the Ducks already had their chance to knock off an SEC power and was simply manhandled by LSU, 40-27.

But far be it for anyone to count Oregon out just yet, not with the way the team has played since that day. Injuries to Darron Thomas and LaMichael James have exposed the Ducks...as one of the deepest and most dangerous offensive powerhouses in college football this season.

Chip Kelly's club checked in as the most highly-regarded one-loss team in the BCS rankings this week and will continue to climb if it keeps winning.

That ascendancy will begin in earnest come November, when the Ducks play Washington and Stanford on the road and USC at home in consecutive weeks. Wins in those three games would put Oregon in the driver's seat in the Pac-12 and could very well vault them into the national championship game as well, especially with a victory in the conference title game tacked on.

Once there, though, it's tough to imagine the Quack Attack not getting shot down by the athletic defenses that LSU and Alabama put together every week.

And if the Tigers' performance is any measure, the Ducks' D is hardly impenetrable, even against an offense that relies more on precision than explosion to get the job done.

Boise State

Boise State has already proven that it can hang with the SEC, thanks to a 35-21 win over Georgia in the season opener.

Granted, the Bulldogs aren't exactly the Tigers or the Tide, but they're no slouches either, especially at a "neutral site" at the Georgia Dome that was understandably partisan.

Either way, the Broncos would seem to have what it takes to beat a top-tier team—an experienced and unflappable quarterback in Kellen Moore, a surprisingly strong defense and a creative coaching mind in Chris Petersen.

The only thing missing, of course, is a clear path to New Orleans.

Not that Boise State is likely to lose at all this season. Rather, the biggest hurdle for the Smurf Turfers is the BCS itself. The computers still don't care for their schedule and the pollsters figure to follow suit at some point or another.

That being said, if the Broncos somehow sneak their way into Superdome on January 9th, don't be surprised if they give the big boys from the South all they can handle.

Clemson

If there's any team outside of the SEC that knows a thing or two about football in the region, it's Clemson.

After all, the Tigers play in South Carolina, which, last time I checked, is south of the old Mason-Dixon line.

They'll need more than familiarity to reach the BCS Championship Game, much less win it. Clemson plays three of its last four regular-season games on the road, including this weekend's trip to Atlanta to play Georgia Tech and the season finale against in-state rival South Carolina in Columbia.

The biggest problem with Clemson's schedule, though, is its strength. Wins over Auburn and USC certainly help, but a second win over Virginia Tech in the ACC Championship Game wouldn't do much to boost the Tigers' profile in the scrutinizing eyes of the BCS. As far as plausible unbeatens are concerned, only Boise State is more susceptible than Clemson to getting passed by if it runs the table.

Tajh Boyd and Sammy Watkins could give LSU or Alabama some trouble on the field, but nothing that either defense couldn't handle, given the way the SEC has been able to subdue speedy spread offenses like Oregon's in the past.

And defensively...well, let's just put it this way: the Tigers have given up 30 or more points in a game three times this season, with only three occasions on which they held their opponent to fewer than 20 points.

Michigan State

Strange as it may seem, Michigan State isn't all that different stylistically from LSU and Alabama. The Spartans rely on steady play from their quarterback (Kirk Cousins), a sound running game and a physical defense to butter their proverbial bread.

At No. 11 in the BCS, Mark Dantonio's team needs a big push from the college football gods just to get in the national championship picture. A win at No. 14 Nebraska this weekend, their third in as many games over a ranked opponent, would go a long way toward landing Sparty in the good graces of the BCS.

However, the only thing more unlikely than Michigan State making it to New Orleans is, well, Michigan State winning in New Orleans. The Big Ten has a rather extensive history of failure against the SEC, in the BCS and otherwise. Most of MSU's current players participated in the 2011 Capital One Bowl, which the Crimson Tide won rather decisively, 49-7.

This year's Bama team is probably better than that one. You can probably guess how a rematch, or a swap with LSU, would turn out.