How Good Is Matt Forte?

In the second round of the 2008 NFL Draft, with the 44th pick, the Chicago Bears selected running back Matt Forte out of Tulane University.

ESPN's Mel Kiper referred to Forte as "hard-nosed" and "not flashy." On various sites' draft coverage, the voting of the fans gave the Bears' draft between a D+ and a C+, while most projections had the running back from the mid-major conference going anywhere between the later second to the fifth round in the draft. Many analysts thought the Bears may have reached by selecting Forte when they did.

Fast-forward 13 weeks into his rookie season. Forte has eclipsed Hall of Famer Gale Sayers for the most yards from scrimmage in a rookie season (1,476). He has also joined only two players in the history of the winningest franchise in NFL history in recording 1,000 rushing yards and 50 receptions in one season (Walter Payton and Neal Anderson are the other two).

He is in the class of the likes of Sayers, Payton, and Anderson. The last time a young player was elevated to such heights on the Bears was just a few years ago, when a young safety from New Mexico moved to middle linebacker. Brian Urlacher has since climbed into the conversation with Bill George, Dick Butkus and Mike Singletary about the great linebacking tradition in Chicago.

But Forte is something different. He's run and caught the ball out of the backfield exceptionally well, and his pass blocking has been noted by his teammates as being excellent. For a young running back to enter the league and pick up the offense as quickly as he has is simply remarkable.

Just ask Cedric Benson.

But that's another point to what has made Forte so special this year: he's from a mid-major conference school in Tulane. If you look at other star running backs that have come into the league from non-BCS conferences, there aren't many that succeed in the NFL very quickly, much less at all.

Consider three of the bigger running backs to come out of mid-major conferences recently that have enjoyed the most success: DeAngelo Williams in Carolina (Memphis - 2006), Brian Westbrook in Philadelphia (Villanova - 2002) and LaDanian Tomlinson in San Diego (TCU - 2001).

Williams struggled to stay on the field in his rookie season in Carolina after a hyped career at Memphis. He got 121 carries and 33 receptions for a total of 814 total yards.

It was not until this year, his third, with a diminished receiving role and split carries with rookie Jonathan Stewart, that he has seen his productivity come close to living up to the expectations he brought with him from Conference USA.

Maybe the most versatile back since Marshall Faulk, Westbrook came into a winning situation in Philadelphia that perhaps most mirrors the situation Forte came to with Chicago.

However, in 15 games his rookies season, Westbrook only had 55 total touches for 279 yards. It was not until his third season that Westbrook would reach 1,500 total yards (1,515) on 177 rushes and 73 receptions.

Tomlinson got the ball the most in his rookie year. LT had 339 carries and 59 receptions in 2001 for a total of 1,603 yards in 16 games. Obviously there are record books to tell us what Tomlinson has done since arriving in San Diego.

Now consider adding Forte to this group of elite running backs. With three games remaining, he already has 269 carries and 53 receptions for 1,476 yards. He projects to have 331 carries and 65 receptions for 1,816 yards. That would be more total yards and touches than even the great Tomlinson had in his rookie season.

Forte is leading the Bears in rushing yards and receptions. The last rookie running back to do that in a season? You may have guessed it: Tomlinson.

Here's perhaps the most impressive statistic about Forte. In Tomlinson's rookie year, he lost five fumbles. Westbrook lost two (in only 55 touches). Forte has only put the ball on the ground once in 322 touches.

But why limit the conversation to mid-major college running backs? Perhaps the most ballyhooed rookie running back of this decade has been Adrian Peterson of the Minnesota Vikings (Oklahoma - 2007). Peterson rushed 238 times last year for 1,341 yards. He had 19 receptions for 268 yards, giving him 257 total touches for 1,709 total yards in 14 games.

Place these almost unfathomable numbers from Peterson in the context that he had Chester Taylor replacing him in most passing situations as both a receiver and a blocker, and that Peterson was not (and still is not) a significant weapon in the passing game for Minnesota.

Forte does not have the luxury of Taylor. He is the Bears' third down back. He is the blocking and receiving running back after being the primary rushing back on first and second downs. He already, in fewer games, has more total touches than Peterson did last year and will be in the same neighborhood in total yards for 14 games after this week's game against New Orleans.

While I am not advocating that we begin carving his bust for Canton, I am pointing out the validity behind Bears' fans excitement about the young running back from Louisiana. Forte has joined an elite company in the record books for the Chicago Bears. He is also moving past the rookie production of some of the great running backs of this decade.

He's just a rookie, but Matt Forte makes any Bears fan smile at the future in Chicago.