NFL Predictions Week 7: Matthew Stafford Will Throw 60 Passes vs. Falcons

A week ago, the Detroit Lions were 5-0 and one of the best stories in the NFL.

Nowadays, things are not quite as rosy. The Lions suffered their first loss at the hands of the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, and their running backs are dropping like flies. On Thursday, reports came out (see the Detroit Free Press) that Jahvid Best might end up sitting out the rest of the season after suffering his second concussion since August. In addition, it was revealed that a trade that would have sent Jerome Harrison to the Philadelphia Eagles for Ronnie Brown was nixed because Harrison has a brain tumor.

Yikes. On the one hand, you obviously hope that both Best and Harrison can get healthy and stay healthy. On the other hand, you have to say it's a good thing that the Lions don't rely on the run all that much to begin with, as they are averaging just 23.2 rushing attempts per game this season.

With Best and Harrison out, Maurice Morris will take over as Detroit's primary running back against the Atlanta Falcons. The Lions will no doubt look to get Morris involved, but it's more likely that they'll increase Matthew Stafford's workload.

This is actually not such a bad idea. The Falcons rank 27th in the NFL against the pass, as they are allowing just over 283.3 passing yards per game. Aaron Rodgers has a lot to do with this, but it's worth noting that the Falcons let the likes of Jay Cutler and Tarvaris Jackson throw for over 300 yards against them.

The Lions could come to the conclusion that they're better off trying to establish the run with Morris, but they might want to think again. The Falcons struggle against the pass, but they're pretty good against the run. They're allowing fewer than 100 yards rushing per game, and the only running back to have any success of note against them was LeSean McCoy. At last check, Morris isn't quite on McCoy's level.

Instead, I think you can expect to see something along the lines of what we saw from Stafford in Week 6. For the most part, the Lions didn't even run the ball, instead trusting Stafford to move the offense. He ended up with 50 throws on the day, completing 28 of them.

Now, 50 would be a good number as far as predictions go—but I expect Stafford to complete a better percentage of his throws on Sunday, which will lead to more third-down conversions, fewer punts, longer drives and, of course, more throws.

So, what the heck—give me 60 throws for Stafford.

For the record, that would be a new career high.

Prediction: 37-of-60 passing, 400 yards, three TDs, one INT.