UFC 92: Nogueira Vs. Mir

Antonio “Minotauro” Rodrigo Nogueira and Frank Mir will fight for the interim heavyweight title at UFC 92: Ultimate 2008 scheduled for the 27th of December. The winner of this fight is supposed to face current heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar in a bout that will decide the undisputed heavyweight champion in the UFC.

TALE OF THE TAPE

Frank Mir

He stands 6 ft 3 in tall (190 cm) and weighs 255 lb (115 kg). He holds a professional record of 11 wins (one KO, seven submissions), and three losses (three (T)KOs). He holds notable wins over Tim Sylvia and Brock Lesnar.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

“Minotauro” stands 6 ft 3 in tall and weighs 241 lb (109 kg). He holds a professional record of 31 wins (three (T)KOs, 19 submissions, nine decisions), four losses (two split decisions and two unanimous decisions), one draw and one no contest. He holds notable wins over Dan Henderson, Mirko “Crocop”, Josh Barnett, Ricco Rodriguez, Tim Sylvia, etc.

STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES

Frank Mir

Frank Mir is a submission specialist with BJJ and wrestling background. He can pull amazing submissions from his back (like an inverted keylock against Pete Williams at UFC 36).

After his motorcycle accident he had some downfalls (losses to Marcio Cruz and Brandon Vera), but came back with wins over Antoni Hardonk and current champion Brock Lesnar.

He relies heavily on his submissions and his stand-up doesn't seem to improve much over the years. He should follow Andrei Arlovski and hook up with Freddie Roach. His stand-up could benefit greatly from training with one of the best boxing coaches in the world.

He tends to drop his hands when throwing low kicks, that's how Ian Freeman and Brock Lesnar caught him with a straight right and dropped him.

Frank Mir's cardio was an issue even before the motorcycle accident. When he knocked out Wes Sims in the second round of their rematch, he could barely stand from exhaustion.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

“Minotauro” is one of the best submission specialists in the fight game. He's never been finished in a fight. Two of his four losses came at the hands of Fedor Emilianenko by unanimous decision, other two were controversial split decisions against Dan Henderson and Josh Barnett. He avenged his losses against Henderson and Barnett as he beat both of them in rematches. His fights with Fedor Emilianenko are MMA classic.

Nogueira's ability to absorb punishment and wait for an opportunity to submit his opponents is unparalleled in MMA. Bob Sapp, who outweighed Nogueira by 150 lb, annihilated him for almost fifteen minutes, and then Nogueira pulled off an armbar and submitted Sapp.

He is incredibly versatile on the ground as he makes transitions in a split second. When you try to escape a triangle, he catches you in an armbar. If you escape the armbar, he'll lock in a guillotine choke. Against Semmy Shilt he switched from an armbar to triangle. Gary Goodridge escaped an armbar, escaped an omoplata and fell into a triangle.

Although he used to train with Cuban National Boxing Team, his stand-up has a lot of room for improvement. He has a tendency to fight with his chin up and exposed. He should tuck in his chin tight and involve more head and upper-body movement.

He compensates his flaws in boxing defense with his iron jaw as nobody so far managed to knock “Minotauro” out. He should also try to improve his punching power as his fast combinations lack the knockout power.

WINNING STRATEGIES

Frank Mir

Nogueira is a very bad match-up for Mir, who can't count on his submission prowess as he is facing the very best when it comes to the ground game. His stand-up is far behind Nogueira's, so the only option for Mir is to try to score some points with takedowns, avoid Nogueira's submission attempts and hope for a decision.

The problem might be Mir's cardio as this is a five-round bout. He can't count on a quick submission here and fighting restless Nogueira in later rounds will be a real test for Mir's conditioning.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira

Nogueira's superior stand-up will allow him to pick apart Mir on their feet, drag him into deep waters, and maybe even knock out or submit fatigued Mir in later rounds.

Nogueira will have an advantage on the ground as he is more experienced and versatile in submissions, but he is comfortable on his feet and he won't immediately bring the fight to the ground, so it is going to be a long night for Frank Mir.

PREDICTION: NOGUEIRA—SUBMISSION, FOURTH ROUND

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