BCS Rankings 2011: Odds for Every Top 25 Team To Play in National Championship
The BCS standings are out and the LSU Tigers (7-0) have landed in the No. 1 spot, while the Washington Huskies (5-1) round out the Top 25 teams.
Every major college football program's preseason goal is to reach the national championship game, but only a few have a realistic chance of obtaining it.
Let's take a look at the betting odds that I've generated for each team represented in the current standings to make a trip to New Orleans on Jan. 9, 2012, inside the Louisiana Superdome.
25. Washington Huskies (+15,000)
1 of 25The Washington Huskies have been incredibly undervalued with the graduation of star quarterback Jake Locker, who was selected by the Tennessee Titans in this year's NFL draft.
The only blemish on the schedule is a 51-38 loss to the Nebraska Cornhuskers as 17-point road underdogs on Sept. 17.
Nebraska (+10,000) still has odds of winning the BCS championship, while Washington is lumped in with the field (+5,000).
Next up on the schedule is Stanford, a team that handed the program a 41-0 home loss a year ago, winning the statistical battle by a 363-yard margin.
It's been nice knowing you in the BCS standings.
24. Texas Longhorns (+20,000)
2 of 25The Southeastern Conference is the only one that would have a two-loss team represented in the BCS National Championship Game.
Texas is a member of the Big 12 Conference and has already lost to Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, two teams that rank No. 3 and No. 4 respectively.
The Longhorns do have a chance of running the table the rest of the year, but three tough road games remain, including back-to-back contests against Texas A&M and Baylor to close out the season.
23. Illinois Fighting Illini (+15,000)
3 of 25Illinois was handed a 17-7 loss by the Ohio State Buckeyes last week as 3.5-point home favorites, which was a discouraging result due to allowing just one completed pass.
Then again, Ohio State only attempted four passes for the entire game.
How in the world would this team match up against the likes of Oklahoma or Oklahoma State?
Fighting Illini head coach Ron Zook doesn't have to worry about that, as the team has no shot of making the national title game.
22. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (+12,000)
4 of 25The only team out of the Atlantic Coast Conference that has any chance of making the national title game is the Clemson Tigers.
Georgia Tech has been a nice story and possesses one of the top offensive units in college football, but dropping a 24-21 contest to the Virginia Cavaliers isn't going to get you to New Orleans.
In fact, the Yellow Jackets have to be considered a play-against squad the rest of the year, dropping two straight games against the spread.
21. Penn State Nittany Lions (+8,000)
5 of 25Penn State is enjoying a nice season, but there's a huge problem in making a case for the program to reach the BCS National Championship Game.
The Nittany Lions dropped a 27-11 home game to the Alabama Crimson Tide, one of maybe three teams that could reach the title game with two losses.
Reaching the Rose Bowl is clearly the team's No. 1 goal at this point, but closing out the season against Nebraska, Ohio State and Wisconsin will likely end that dream as well.
20. Auburn Tigers (+8,500)
6 of 25The Auburn Tigers already have two losses on the season and are 21-point road underdogs against No. 1 LSU this weekend.
Not exactly a formula to reach the title game.
Unless Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton is able to come back and use his final year of eligibility, the Tigers will need to be happy in playing a bowl game before New Year's Day.
19. Houston Cougars (+7,750)
7 of 25The Houston Cougars' most impressive victory came in a 38-34 season-opening win over the UCLA Bruins as 1.5-point home favorites.
Not exactly the strength of schedule necessary to make noise in the standings, especially with the Boise State Broncos 14 spots above them.
Conference USA isn't going to be represented in the Bayou come January.
18. Michigan Wolverines (+8,000)
8 of 25The Michigan Wolverines could realistically win out, but last week's loss to Michigan State ends any discussion of reaching the season's final game.
First off, the Spartans host the Wisconsin Badgers this weekend, with every Big Ten Conference team hoping for an upset.
If that result occurred, Michigan would have a shot at the Rose Bowl, but no chance in leapfrogging the opponent that handed the program its first loss.
17. Texas A&M Aggies (+9,000)
9 of 25Realistically, the only two-loss team that would even have an argument at this point, with losses against Arkansas and Oklahoma State.
Texas A&M is headed to the SEC, but not there yet.
The Aggies still have a chance to make some noise in the standings due to traveling to Norman on Nov. 5 to tackle the Oklahoma Sooners.
16. Michigan State Spartans (+6,000)
10 of 25The Michigan State Spartans are touchdown home underdogs this weekend against the Wisconsin Badgers, suggesting that the dream may end quickly.
A road game against the Nebraska Cornhuskers follows, causing me to look elsewhere.
Certainly not out of the question with a stop unit that limited the Michigan Wolverines to 250 total yards in last week's 28-14 win as three-point home favorites.
15. West Virginia Mountaineers (+5,500)
11 of 25I'm amazed that West Virginia still has odds of +3,000 to win the BCS National Championship Game, as I simply don't see it.
The only scenario that opens up the discussion is if the LSU Tigers end up finishing the regular season with two losses.
After all, the Mountaineers were handed a 47-21 loss by the Tigers as 5.5-point home underdogs in a prime-time event on Sept. 24.
West Virginia has out-gained all six of its opponents, including the No. 1 team in the standings.
14. South Carolina Gamecocks (+12,000)
12 of 25South Carolina Gamecocks sophomore running back Marcus Lattimore is out for the season with a knee injury, which isn't a factor in the BCS standings.
It's definitely a factor when computing odds of the team's chances of reaching the title game.
The schedule is favorable, but the 16-13 loss to the Auburn Tigers as 10.5-point home favorites on Oct. 1 is too much to overcome.
Let alone losing your best offensive weapon.
13. Nebraska Cornhuskers (+6,000)
13 of 25The only reason the Nebraska Cornhuskers are up this high is due to being severely overvalued at the start of the season.
Have to give the team credit in posting a 34-27 come-from-behind win over the Ohio State Buckeyes last time out, but that doesn't carry the same weight as previous years.
A trip to the title game isn't possible unless the Wisconsin Badgers end up with two losses.
That's likely not going to happen.
12. Virginia Tech Hokies (+7,500)
14 of 25The Virginia Tech Hokies' chances of reaching the national title game were ransacked in a 23-3 loss to the Clemson Tigers as seven-point home favorites on Oct. 1.
Making another BCS bowl game is still a reachable goal for head coach Frank Beamer's crew, but the Tigers are the only ACC team with a chance of reaching New Orleans.
11. Kansas State Wildcats (+10,000)
15 of 25The Kansas State Wildcats are +3,000 to win the BCS championship, light years away from the betting odds that I've established them even reaching the game.
Getting out-gained in four consecutive contests heading into this weekend has me believing the bubble is about to burst.
Playing back-to-back games against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State will knock this team out of the standings come Nov. 6.
10. Oregon Ducks (+5,000)
16 of 25The Oregon Ducks catch a break by playing the Colorado Buffaloes this weekend, with running back LaMichael James and quarterback Darron Thomas doubtful to play.
It's likely not going to matter with the loser of last year's championship game listed as 31-point road favorites.
Head coach Chip Kelly is already looking dead ahead to consecutive November contests against the Stanford Cardinal and USC Trojans, but will likely still need help from others to make a trip.
After all, Oregon lost to LSU to open the year in Cowboys Stadium.
9. Arkansas Razorbacks (+7,500)
17 of 25The Arkansas Razorbacks would need to win out and hope that Alabama loses two games, as they were soundly beaten in a 38-14 loss by the Crimson Tide as 11-point road underdogs.
It's not out of the question that the Razorbacks enter their regular-season finale with just a single loss, but that contest is on the road against the LSU Tigers.
Maybe next year.
8. Stanford Cardinal (+1,500)
18 of 25The Stanford Cardinal are getting a lot more respect out in Las Vegas than they are in the first installment of the BCS standings.
Oddsmakers have been unable to catch up to Heisman Trophy front-runner Andrew Luck, coming into this week as the only unblemished team against the spread.
The strength of schedule starts going up next week with a road game against the USC Trojans, while home games against Oregon and Notre Dame are on the horizon.
The Cardinal will need some help, but things could break their way, especially if the winner of Oklahoma-Oklahoma State already has a loss.
I believe Luck could leapfrog Russell Wilson's Wisconsin Badgers if the two teams are undefeated at the end of the regular season.
7. Clemson Tigers (+2,500)
19 of 25Clemson will likely head into Columbia in the regular season's final game with a perfect record when taking on South Carolina.
Even without running back Marcus Lattimore, the Gamecocks are likely to be field-goal favorites in that game.
Due to being relatively new to the BCS landscape, I just don't see how the team moves ahead of an unbeaten Boise State.
The ACC is better than the Mountain West Conference, but still down in a big way from years past.
Overvalued odds due to the politics of the system stacked up against them.
6. Wisconsin Badgers (+500)
20 of 25The Wisconsin Badgers face a stiff challenge this weekend as touchdown road favorites against the Michigan State Spartans.
In looking at the remaining schedule, it's likely the only game that will have them laying single digits the rest of the way.
Two of the five teams above the program currently are guaranteed to have at least a single loss, which lowers the odds for the team simply reaching the title game.
I do believe Stanford is a threat of leapfrogging them if both teams finish the year with a perfect record.
College football fans would be entertained by having the nation's No. 1 scoring offense in New Orleans, but it will likely come down to the computers crunching numbers.
5. Boise State Broncos (+800)
21 of 25Boise State will once again miss out on the national title game due to strength of schedule, as a victory over a two-loss TCU Horned Frogs squad isn't going to carry much weight this year.
The Broncos handed the Georgia Bulldogs a 35-21 neutral-field loss in the season opener as three-point favorites, but many consider that opponent a middle-tier SEC team.
A lot of help is needed, driving up the betting odds, but certainly not out of the question.
4. Oklahoma State Cowboys (+1,200)
22 of 25The betting odds will be driven down much lower if the Oklahoma State Cowboys come away with a road win this weekend over the Missouri Tigers.
It's a scary situation in Columbia, as the Tigers knocked off the then-No. 1 Oklahoma Sooners during the same week last year.
If they come out of the contest unscathed, a trip to New Orleans will likely come down to the regular-season finale in hosting the Oklahoma Sooners on Dec. 3.
The price is up due to two major hurdles remaining.
3. Oklahoma Sooners (+750)
23 of 25Oklahoma is +300 to win the BCS National Championship Game, but the price is incredibly overvalued due to the amount of wagers the team received before the season started.
Just like the others below them, the Sooners would need a lot of help to reach the title game if it happened to draw a loss, especially if it happened in the final week against Oklahoma State.
It's pretty simple though—win the final six games and you're in.
2. Alabama Crimson Tide (+250)
24 of 25The Alabama Crimson Tide are the favorites to win it all and definitely at the top of the list in terms of betting odds for this particular article.
Las Vegas oddsmakers are expecting the Crimson Tide to be six-point home favorites when hosting the LSU Tigers on Nov. 5.
Still, there's definitely value in playing some of the other teams to reach the title game, as it's no gimme that Alabama comes out on top in that SEC clash.
1. LSU Tigers (+400)
25 of 25It's important to note that the LSU Tigers (+300) are at the same betting odds of the Oklahoma Sooners to win the BCS National Championship Game.
Questions surround the program on the potential suspensions of three players, including star cornerback Tyrann Mathieu.
Sitting atop the current standings definitely makes them a player to appear in the season's final game, but without a doubt the second choice due to potentially being a six-point road underdog in Tuscaloosa on Nov. 5.
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