College Football: 5 Teams on Major Upset Alert in Week 8

With each passing week, college football becomes more and more intriguing.  Teams improve, great performances are recorded and, of course, upsets occur. 

Upsets are the most compelling facet of college football because they have the most impact on the national landscape and are hardest to foresee. 

So, who will be this week's Georgia Tech?  Here are five ranked teams that could be upset this weekend.

Illinois

Purdue went on the road to Happy Valley last week, and played even with the Nittany Lions for nearly the entire game. The Boilermakers were successful running the ball, rushing for 162 yards on 33 carries.

They will need to continue that success against Illinois, the 18th-best rush defense in the nation. Despite the impressive ranking, the Illini gave up 211 yards on 51 carries last week to the Buckeyes.

Illinois is going on the road for just the second time this season.  The first time it came out flat against an inferior Indiana team but was able to recover.  Recovering will be a tougher task this week should the Illini fall behind.

The game also comes sandwiched between two "bigger" games for the Illini.  Last week they faced Ohio State.  Next week they travel to Penn State. There is also a question of how the Illini will respond to their first loss of the season.

This is Purdue's homecoming, and Purdue feels Illiniois ran up the score last year in their meeting. We know Purdue will come to play.

The Las Vegas spread opened at Illinois -6.0 and has plummeted to -3.5.  That means there is sharp money on the Boilermakers, which isn't good news for the Illini.

Purdue 24, Illinois 20

Oklahoma State

Mizzou is a team that is being ignored because it is 3-3 and no longer at the top of the Big 12. That said, this is a team that should have beaten ASU on the road and played Oklahoma to a 10-point deficit in Norman.  The Tigers are still very dangerous.

Their offense has improved drastically since their opening week 17-6 win against Miami-Ohio. Now, they're 34th in the nation in passing and 13th in rushing. 

While both offenses are prolific, Mizzou's defense is playing slightly better than Oklahoma State's right now.  Oklahoma State has given up over 400 yards in four of six games.

In a potential shootout such as this, it may come down to turnovers. Turnovers are difficult to project, but Oklahoma State is plus-12, good for third in the nation, while Mizzou is plus-three, 35th in the nation. 

Mizzou's Faurot Field has also become a difficult place to play. The Tigers have only lost five games in the past five years and upset No. 3 Oklahoma last year in Columbia.

All this said, Oklahoma State's defense is improving slightly and is getting stops when needed. 

The line opened at OSU -7.0 and has dropped to -6.5

Oklahoma State 42, Mizzou 38

Wisconsin

If not for few turnovers and a blown coverage on special teams, MSU could be undefeated. Instead, it lost a game on the road in which it outgained its opponent.

Still, MSU's defense has allowed just 28 points over the last three games.  It has the No. 3 rush defense, the No. 1 pass defense and the No. 4 scoring defense.

This will be by far Wisconsin's toughest opponent to date. Wisconsin has played one neutral field game at Soldier Field against NIU, but it hasn't played a true road game yet—and it's almost the end of October!

Wisconsin has the No. 1 scoring offense, so we should see great matchup, particularly with Wisconsin's rush offense against MSU's rush defense. 

Last week against Michigan, MSU sacked Denard Robinson seven times and held the Wolverines to 82 yards rushing.

Wisconsin's rush defense is giving up 123 yards per game.  That isn't a terrible average, but it could be susceptible to Edwin Baker and the MSU attack. This will be MSU's best chance to win. 

MSU is at home.  Wisconsin is on the road for the first time.  This will be a close, low-scoring game.

The Badgers are seven-point road favorites.

Wisconsin 23, Michigan State 24

Arizona

Kevin Prince is back under the center for the Bruins. He came off the bench to replace injured Richard Brehaut against Wazzu and led the Bruins to a come from behind win.

Freshman backup Brett Hundley has been deemed too inexperienced to take over, so Prince sort of has the full confidence of the staff.  At least, there isn't a threat for him to be replaced.  That is a luxury he hasn't had in a while and could be big for his confidence.

The strength of UCLA is still the rushing attack.  Arizona's rush defense is 99th in the nation, allowing 196 yards per game.  Defensive coordinator Tim Kish has taken over the Wildcats, and it remains to be seen if their defense improves as a result (I don't know why it would).  The Wildcats are currently 116th in the nation in total defense.

Despite the Wildcats' 1-5 record, Nick Foles is having a great year.  He is second in the nation at 375 yards passing per game and has a 15-4 TD-interception ratio. 

UCLA's pass defense is getting slightly better.  In consecutive weeks, it held Stanford and Wazzu, two high-powered pass attacks, to 240 and 235 yards through the air, respectively.

Both teams are coming off bye weeks.  This game is UCLA's season. A win would put the Bruins at 4-3 and give them a very realistic shot of reaching six wins. 

Arizona's response to Stoops' firing will be interesting.  Will it cave in and continue its poor play?  Or will it rally around new coach Kish and readjust its goals for the season?  It is possible, however unlikely, that Arizona wins five of its last six and makes a bowl.  This has to be the goal as of now.  It won't happen if the Wildcats lose Thursday night.

Arizona is 4.5-point home favorites.

UCLA 31, Arizona 30

Penn State

Penn State is going on the road for the third time this year.  The first two were wins, but man were they close.

The Nittany Lions escaped with a 14-10 win against Temple in Week 3 and then turned the ball over three times against Indiana in Week 5 but escaped with a 16-10 win.

Penn State's defense has been good at home and away.  Twice, however, it was exposed against the running game.  It gave up 196 yards to Alabama and 162 to Purdue.

Northwestern has the running attack to excel against Penn State. Overall, its offense has improved greatly since Dan Persa has returned. 

Northwestern is 2-4 but has somehow played four games on the road.  It has had trouble closing games out, while Penn State has excelled at this.  Northwestern has been tied, or led, in the second half of every one of its losses.  Meanwhile, Penn State has outscored every opponent other than Alabama in the second half.

Penn State has two road wins by a combined 10 points.  Northwestern lost to Michigan at home, but looked solid for a half.  I think it will play with an increased sense of urgency and make this one close.  Still, Penn State's defense may be too tough, and it is a stronger team mentally.

Penn State is four-point road favorites.

Penn State 23, Northwestern 21