BCS Rankings 2011: 10 Quality Teams That Will Get No Love from the Computers

Behind college football's all-powerful BCS standings are six independent ranking systems.

Although the USA Today Coaches and Harris Interactive polls are weighted more heavily, the computers have enough influence to shuffle around the top programs.

The following 10 teams can expect to be victimized by the machines.

The Methods to Their Madness

Before I begin, allow me to introduce you to the computers. Their procedures are somewhat mysterious, but—for the most part—we know what each system considers:

Anderson and Hester 

“The only original and unaltered BCS computer rankings,” A&H takes into account wins and losses, strength of schedule, record against current top 25 teams and losses outside the top 25.

Billingsley Report

Richard Billingsley factors in rankings from the previous season and the rankings of competing teams at the time of their matchups. It is based on "point accumulation."

Colley Matrix

Colley ignores past performance. It relies heavily on strength of schedule, yet disregards home field advantage. The Matrix also doesn't reward teams who run up the score (no ratings consider margin of victory). Dr. Wes Colley claims his system is completely unbiased.

Kenneth Massey Ratings

Games are weighted more as the season progresses. Win and losses, venue and strength of schedule are significant. 

Jeff Sagarin Ratings

Similar to the Massey Ratings, but attempt to predict future outcomes (predictive ratings). Sagarin favors undefeated and one-loss teams.

Peter Wolfe Rankings

Details are kept private. However, it has been revealed that his "maximum likelihood estimates" look at results against mutual opponents and location of past and upcoming games.

*All information courtesy of Asher Feldman of BCS Know How and his "Better Know a BCS Computer" series (http://www.bcsknowhow.com/better-know-a-bcs-computer-anderson-and-hester).

Miami Hurricanes (3-3, 1-2 in ACC): Unranked in BCS Standings

The Hurricanes aren't national title contenders in 2011, but they still have a very small chance of winning the ACC's Coastal Division and the entire conference. In this best-case scenario, they would receive an automatic bid to the Orange Bowl—a BCS bowl game.

However, if they falter even once during the remainder of the season, the computer ranking systems will continue to repel them from the top 25.

Miami is out of favor with the Billingsley Report because of its disappointing 7-6 campaign in 2010. 

The others will be cruel to the U because of the school's unfortunate residence in the ACC. As a result, their strength of schedule doesn't compare that those in the Big 12 or SEC.

After a Week 8 battle with No. 22 Georgia Tech, Miami might not play another ranked team.

Overall, four of their six remaining games will be at home. Kenneth Massey and Peter Wolfe won't be impressed.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-2, Independent): Unranked in BCS Standings

Notre Dame has rebounded nicely after losing consecutive games to start September. Four straight wins has the program back in the spotlight.

Billingsley will cut the Fighting Irish a little more slack considering that they defeated Miami in the Sun Bowl, but their season-opening loss at home to South Florida may haunt them throughout the fall.

Peter Wolfe's rankings and several others pay attention to the play of opponents' opponents. USF is in last place in the mediocre Big East.

On top of that, Notre Dame has matchups remaining with struggling Maryland and Boston College. That's weakness of schedule if I've ever seen it!

Georgia Bulldogs (5-2, 4-1 in SEC): Unranked in BCS Standings

The Bulldogs are comfortably a top-five team in an unbalanced Southeastern Conference. Sadly, they are fifth in the pecking order and likely to stay there.

The Billingsley Report will be especially merciless on them because the 2010 team hobbled to a losing season.

But hold up: Georgia has strength of schedule going for it—to some extent. The Bulldogs' losses to Boise State and South Carolina will prove oddly beneficial because both opponents were very highly-ranked beforehand. Remember from the methodology slide that Billingsley puts stock in this.

Then again, their upcoming games won't be of any help. Four of the five will be at Sanford Stadium and none feature elite teams.

Houston Cougars (6-0, 2-0 in C-USA): No. 19 in BCS Standings

The Cougars have done nothing wrong this season. They shot themselves in the foot last winter, however, by agreeing to a non-conference schedule of UCLA, North Texas, Louisiana Tech and Georgia State.

Undefeated Houston will be barred from a national championship appearance because it hasn't proven itself against a legitimate team.

Every ranking system celebrates a spotless record, but strength of schedule is paramount. With some luck, the Cougars can get an at-large bid to a BCS bowl game and an audience to witness their dominant passing attack.

Michigan State Spartans (5-1, 2-0 in Big Ten): No. 16 in BCS Standings

Whatever the Spartans have been doing, they need to stop doing it.

No other upper-echelon college football program is as loved by the pollsters—No. 15 in Harris Poll, No. 13 in USA Today—yet so undervalued by the machines (average computer ranking: 24).

Their schedule becomes rather perilous the next two weekends, only to soften up in November. Choking to Minnesota, Indiana or Northwestern would be devastating.

Michigan State's unusual arrangement of seven home games and five road games will deter the ranking systems, too.

West Virginia Moutaineers (5-1, 1-0 in Big East): No. 15 in BCS Standings

The Mountaineers know the Spartans' pain. They also impress more in person than in formulas.

The Matrix should come around on them because four of their six remaining games are versus top 50 opponents. Entering Week 8, their only experience against such a team was a futile attempt against second-ranked LSU.

Anderson and Hester will be their biggest skeptic. West Virginia won't have any top 25 wins with which to woo A&H.

Virginia Tech Hokies (6-1, 2-1 in ACC): No. 12 in BCS Rankings

Virginia Tech controls its own destiny (unlike Miami). If the Hokies run the table, they will win the ACC Coastal Division and a berth in the conference championship game.

They are doing well with the computers so far, but that's in part because Billingsley was generous with them at the onset of the season after their Orange Bowl appearance in January. Their lone loss to undefeated Clemson has been practically excused because the Tigers haven't lost to anybody else.

It seems, though, that the Hokies are getting close to their ceiling in the standings. Their last five games are pretty weak: a few against top 50 programs and possibly one matchup with a top 25 team.

Past victims like the Wake Forest Demon Deacons can help the Hokies by continuing their surprisingly strong season.

Stanford Cardinal (6-0, 4-0 in Pac-12): No. 8 in BCS Standings

Stanford smashed Virginia Tech, 40-12, in last year's Orange Bowl. While the Hokies aspire to get back there again, Andrew Luck's crew is eyeing a national championship.

That expectation is the issue for this Pac-12 powerhouse because even an undefeated campaign won't get them to New Orleans.

Eight other power conference schools have spotless records; seven of them are in front of Stanford. Kenneth Massey and Jeff Sagarin—proponents of similar criteria in their ratings—are the Cardinals' top haters.

Stanford has been hindered by the play of its opponents' opponents. Victories over Arizona and Colorado, for example, have meant nothing because neither team has accomplished much.

A few decent showdowns remain for Stanford in the regular season, but the futility of the Pac-12 South means that the Cardinal will have little to gain from the conference's inaugural championship game.

Wisconsin Badgers (6-0, 2-0 in Big Ten): No. 6 in BCS Standings

More than Stanford, Virginia Tech or even Houston, Wisconsin is screwed by its schedule. The Colley Matrix ranks its difficulty as 129th, worst among that system's 37 best teams.

Luckily, Wisconsin's toughest matchups are still to come, but its non-conference opponents were ridiculously bad.

To be fair the Badgers crushed all four of them, as well as Nebraska and Indiana. Each of their wins this season have been by at least 30 points! Of course, the ranking systems don't account for margin of victory.

The issue that has estranged Wisconsin to the computers is its lack of road experience. We're more than half way through October and the Badgers haven't been in a hostile environment yet!

Inexplicably, they only penciled in four true road games in 2011.

They've done reasonably well in Billingsley's point accumulation format and Sagarin's predictive ratings. Meanwhile, Kenneth Massey has them at No. 17 despite their No. 4 ranking in the two major polls.

Boise State Broncos (6-0, 1-0 in MWC): No. 5 in BCS Standings

Boise State has never gotten love from the computers. Undefeated seasons in 2008 and 2009 couldn't earn BSU a title game berth.

Billingsley spotted them a lot of preseason points coming off a near-perfect campaign, but the Broncos have been unable to build on that.

They opened up the season with a solid triumph over Georgia. However, as we've seen, the computers don't care much for the Bulldogs, either.

The humans are hesitant to give them a BCS bump. USA Today voters have moved Oklahoma State and Wisconsin in front of BSU since the start of the season.

A switch to the Moutain West Conference hasn't made enough of a change in the school's perception, although it has certainly helped. Two games remain against top 50 opponents.

Overall, Boise State is in decent position following the release of standings. No. 1 LSU is scheduled to face No. 2 Alabama, and No. 3 Oklahoma will square off with No. 4 Oklahoma State.

Alas, unless three of those four programs slip up, the Broncos have no shot at finishing at No. 2.

Am I sure of this? No way. Despite all we've been told about the computer ranking systems, many of the variables they consider will always be unknown.