Weekly NFL Picks - Week 14

Due to a cross-town move, I wasn't able to make my way to a computer to get my picks up online. I did have them written out, though, so you'll be able to find last week's record at the bottom of the page.

Some of the lines for this week's match-ups are ridiculously high. Only four of the 16 games this week have a line of less than six points. Three games have a double-digit spread, including the 7-5 Arizona Cardinals favored by two touchdowns. Something's going to give this week.

Let's get to the picks.

San Diego (4-8) over Oakland (3-9)

I cannot believe the Chargers are 4-8. The success last year's defense saw has been spun around 180 degrees, leaving the Chargers all but dead in the AFC playoff race. A win against a lowly Raiders team won't do much toward reclamating a lost 2008 season but it may keep some fans of the Bolts happy ... for now.

Chicago (6-6) over Jacksonville (4-8)

I really wanted to pick Jacksonville in this one, but their defense has just been too underwhelming all season long. The Jags were supposed to be a playoff team, even considered by some (including me) as a threat to play in Tampa Feb. 1 in Super Bowl XLIII. Now they're staring at a top-10 draft slot. Matt Forte and the Bears defense are too much for Jacksonville to overcome at a cold Soldier Field Sunday.

Minnesota (7-5) over Detroit (0-12)

As Lee Corso likes to say, this one will be closer than the experts think. Minnesota's defense has been shaky, but the unexpected return of Pat and Kevin Williams will give the defense a boost. Adrian Peterson will be too much for an abysmal Lions defense to handle and the Vikings will keep control of the NFC North.

Green Bay (5-7) over Houston (5-7)

Houston stinks on the road. The Packers' highly regarded defense has sputtered throughout the 2008 season. Green Bay's offense - and the aura of Lambeau Field in December - will be more than enough to get the Green and Gold another victory. With the Vikings and Bears continuing to win, though, Green Bay's playoff chances continue to dwindle.

Tennessee (11-1) over Cleveland (4-8)

The Browns are a mess. Romeo Crennel is in danger of losing his job though he shouldn't be. Cleveland's offensive cogs can't stay healthy. The Titans aren't the team Cleveland will get a break against. Easy win for the soon-to-be AFC South champs.

Indianapolis (8-4) over Cincinnati (1-10-1)

Don't look now, but the Colts are storming back into the thick of the playoff race. A win will keep Indy in the top wildcard spot in the AFC, and with the hapless Bengals coming to town, tallying a victory shouldn't be a tall task.

New Orleans (6-6) over Atlanta (8-4)

The Falcons could find themselves in second place in the NFC South with a victory this week, a lofty perch considering the strength of the division and low expectations coming into 2008. That being said, the Saints are too tough at home and return Reggie Bush to the lineup. Atlanta allowed more than 500 yards in total offense in their first game against the Saints and walked away with the victory. Don't expect that to happen again.

New York Giants (11-1) over Philadelphia (6-5-1)

Since their tie against the Bengals, I can't take the Eagles seriously. The Giants, on the other hand, look to be the clear-cut NFC favorite and could repeat as Super Bowl champions. Look for New York to be too much for the Eagles to handle at the Meadowlands Sunday afternoon.

Miami (7-5) over Buffalo (6-6)

What the heck happened to the Bills? After a screaming hot start, Buffalo has fallen to the bottom of the AFC East. The Dolphins, however, are on the rise. Look for the wildcat formation to aid the 'Fins in another victory to keep Miami in the hunt for the AFC East crown.

Denver (7-5) over Kansas City (2-10)

This one should be a high-scoring affair, as both teams aren't exactly known for their defensive superiority. The Broncos' offense is a bit more consistent though, and with the game being played in Denver, the Broncos should have enough of an advantage to eke out a victory.

New York Jets (8-4) over San Francisco (4-8)

The John Madden Game of the Week sends Brett Favre and the other 52 guys that wear the same uniform as he does out to the Bay area for a tussle with the struggling Niners. Unless Favre has a rough game, the Jets' running game should lead them to victory.

New England (7-5) over Seattle (2-10)

This late kickoff features two teams which are nowhere near their respective preseason expectations. The loss of Tom Brady may have something to do with New England's struggles, but Matt Cassel is competent enough to exploit Seattle's biggest problem: the defense.

Arizona (7-5) over St. Louis (2-10)

With the Rams giving 14 points on the line, this game seems like a trap. Watch out for the Rams in this one.
That being said, it appears as though Arizona's offense should be too much for St. Louis' lackluster defense to stop long enough to steal a win.

Pittsburgh (9-3) over Dallas (8-4)

If Marion Barber were playing in this game, I'd pick the Cowboys in a minor upset. But with the cold weather of Pittsburgh, Tony Romo's inconsistencies in big games and their top two running backs out with injuries, the odds seem to be too much for the Cowboys to overcome.

Baltimore (8-4) over Washington (7-5)

These two teams are eerily similar ... and play less than 40 miles apart. Both teams sport strong defenses with solid running games and overachieving first-year head coaches. Though Washington's running game may be a shade better, Baltimore's defense is better. As they say, defense wins championships. There will be no championship given out Sunday night in Baltimore, but the Ravens will walk away with a big victory.

Tampa Bay (9-3) over Carolina (9-3)

Last week, for the first time all season, the Panthers looked bad. They were lucky to escape with a victory over the Packers. Tampa Bay is a much better team that has quietly made a case to be the first team to play at home in the Super Bowl. A great contest on Monday night gives the Bucs control of the NFC South and the inside track on a first-round playoff bye.

Last week: 12-4
Week 12: 8-8
Overall record: 124-63-1