BCS Standings 2011: How Will the Top 10 Change in Week 9?

The first BCS standings of the 2011 season have been out for over 48 hours now, and that means that most people are probably running out of things to complain about.

It also means that there isn't much time left before the rankings are refreshed. That will happen Sunday night, and you can rest assured the second set of BCS standings will look much different than the first.

I don't know about you, but I figure the only thing that really matters is how different the Top 10 is going to look. After all, if you're in the Top 10, you're pretty much a lock for a BCS bowl berth.

Truth be told, I don't think we're going to see any significant changes among the top three teams. If anything, we'll probably see LSU strengthen its hold on the No. 1 spot, as the Tigers will add to their resume with a win over Auburn, which is currently No. 20 in the BCS standings. If LSU wins, Alabama and Oklahoma will remain stuck at No. 2 and No. 3, respectively. Assuming they also win, of course.

However, don't be surprised if No. 4 Oklahoma State creeps a little closer to Oklahoma. The Pokes are taking on Missouri on the road, and the BCS computers like road wins over tough conference opponents. The Pokes already have two such wins, and these are a big reason why the computers already think the Pokes are No. 1.

The biggest change will likely happen at the No. 5 spot. Boise State is the current owner, but Wisconsin is close on its heels. Lucky for them, the Badgers can pull off a much-needed statement win on the road against No. 16 Michigan State. The computers are down on Wisconsin, but they will be swayed by a road win over a ranked team. My guess is that the computers will be swayed just enough to elevate Wisconsin over the Broncos, who are hosting Air Force on Saturday.

Additionally, you might just see No. 8 Stanford leapfrog Clemson to earn the No. 7 spot. The two teams aren't separated by much, and Stanford will score big points with a win at home over No. 25 Washington. A win will help Stanford curry favor with the computers, which aren't as high on the Cardinal as the human voters are.

Beyond that, I don't think No. 9 Arkansas is going to move up if it beats Ole Miss, nor do I think No. 10 Oregon is going to budge by beating Colorado. Both teams are playing on the road, but neither win will be worth all that much in the grand scheme of things.

Of course, the other question that must be asked is which team in the Top 10 is most in danger of losing. I think there's only one that's in any real danger, and that's Wisconsin. The last time the Badgers paid a visit to Michigan State, Sparty took care of them with relative ease. Wisconsin does have enough offense to pull out a W, but it must be noted that Michigan State's defense was last seen keeping Michigan's high-powered offense very much in check.

If Wisconsin does lose, it will probably drop outside the Top 10, and it wouldn't be too much of a shock to see Michigan State move into the Top 10. Kansas State (No. 11) would also be ticketed for the Top 10 if it can combine a win at Kansas with a Wisconsin loss.

I originally made an effort to attach a visual guide to all this mumbo jumbo, but the picture immediately to your right was the best I could come up with.

To boot, things are pretty straightforward this week. I can only imagine what those scribbles are going to look like once we get into the nitty-gritty.

For good or ill, I'll talk you all again when we get there.

Rank	Team	BCS Average
1	LSU	.9522
2	Alabama	.9519
3	Oklahoma	.930
4	Oklahoma State	.857
5	Boise State	.803
6	Wisconsin	.771
7	Clemson	.758
8	Stanford	.748
9	Arkansas	.626
10	Oregon	.619
11	Kansas State	.569
12	Virginia Tech	.505
13	Nebraska	.497
14	South Carolina	.491
15	West Virginia	.373
16	Michigan State	.329
17	Texas A&M	.308
18	Michigan	.300
19	Houston	.286
20	Auburn	.265
21	Penn State	.231
22	Georgia Tech	.197
23	Illinois	.152
24	Texas	.135
25	Washington	.087